Pathfinder 1E D&D and Pathfinder tied for first place on ICv2 Q3 RPG sales list

"The charts are based on interviews with retailers, distributors, and manufacturers." Which I read as "we didn't bother even with pulling numbers out of :):(:), we just asked a question we won't bother to repeat, so people won't be able to question the methodology".

How would you go about collecting the data to see what sold the best? Seems to me like first you would interview the manufacturers and see what they put out and in what numbers. Then you would interview the distributors and see what moved the most and in what numbers. Then you would interview a sample of retailors and see what was selling at the local level, again preferably with numbers.

It seems like you are reading interview to mean a minimal effort when in fact, any good process of collecting data is going to just as properly be called "interviewing." Just because the press release does not detail methodology does not of necessity invalidate the methodology.
 

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ICv2 has a fairly steady track record and are definitely unbiased. They've been around quite a while and have good channels of information. Is it as good as hard sales numbers? No. Is anyone using the numbers to try to claim that WotC is dying? (Probably, but most of us will discount those claims.) On the other hand, for as far back as I can find, ICv2 has reported D&D as the top RPG brand. The fact that Pathfinder has made inroads to even rival D&D for a single quarter means it is doing quite well.

I have to assume that the Red Box and Essentials line (which only showed up very late in Q3) will have a much bigger impact on the Q4 reporting. Paizo does have a big Q4 release (Bestiary 2 will probably sell as well as the APG, if not better) so they should have a good next quarter too.

More interesting to me is this is the first time in a long time that White Wolf hasn't been on the list. The fact that Evil Hat shows up at all with Dresden Files is pretty amazing. FFG has been fairly solid in the middle of the lists since Dark Heresy's release. The fact that there are several strong brands in the market is good news overall for table-top RPGs and will keep both sides competitive.

In conclusion: Paizo is quite happy with their sales. Wizards is still doing quite well and probably has a larger market share once you factor in other sales area (AKA: Amazon, Barnes & Borders, etc.) FFG is happy about their warhammer franchise, and Evil Hat is ecstatic about Dresden Files. Enjoy your game of choice.
 

As long as D&D (currently, but not necessarily permanently, 4e) continues to do "well enough" for WotC to continue, and as long as Pathfinder continues to do "well enough" for Paizo, then we all win.

As for the question of who's #1 and who's #2, the distances between, methods of measurement, or made-up statistics... who really cares? Does it honestly make any difference to the quality of the game at your table?

Oh, also: well done to Paizo for the massive success of your recent products. And to WotC - I hope the Red Box is every bit the success you hope it will be.
 

As for the question of who's #1 and who's #2, the distances between, methods of measurement, or made-up statistics... who really cares? Does it honestly make any difference to the quality of the game at your table?

I think it can make a difference, not that it necessarily will. If a better snapshot of the sales market brings more (or even fewer) quality materials to the table from interested third parties, it can make a difference to the quality of the game at the table, for good or ill.

Individual tables may not be hurt by having unrealistic views of the market, but they aren't served by it either. Some tables may not be served by a better understanding, but some might. The potential to raise the quality for those tables, I think, is enough to make the effort worthwhile.
 

For a historical perspective on ICv2's trends:

Fall 2008
1. D&D
2. 40k RPGs (Dark Heresy/Rogue Trader)
3. World of Darkness
4. Shadowrun
5. Pathfinder

Winter 08-09
1. D&D
2. 40k
3. WoD
4. Star Wars
5. Shadowrun

Q2 2009
1. D&D
2. 40k
3. WoD
4. Song of Fire & Ice
5. Shadowrun

Q3 2009
1. D&D
2. Pathfinder
3. WoD
4. SoFI
5. Shadowrun

Q4 2009
1. D&D
2. Pathfinder
3. Warhammer Fantasy
4. 40k
5. WoD

Q1 2010
1. D&D
2. Pathfinder
3. Warhammer FRP
4. 40k
5. Dragon Age

Q2 2010
1. D&D
2. Pathfinder
3. Warhammer
4. Shadowrun
5. 40k

Q3 2010
1. D&D
1. Pathfinder
3. Warhammer
4. 40k
5. Dresden Files

I couldn't find data from their site earlier than that. So Pathfinder has done fairly well since it's core release Q3 09. I didn't realize the new Warhammer Fantasy line has done that well. Shadowrun has been lurking at the bottom, White Wolf has been slowly dying, and Green Ronin makes a splash when they release a new game. Maybe we'll see DC Adventures show up in Q4.
 

How would you go about collecting the data to see what sold the best? Seems to me like first you would interview the manufacturers and see what they put out and in what numbers. Then you would interview the distributors and see what moved the most and in what numbers. Then you would interview a sample of retailors and see what was selling at the local level, again preferably with numbers.

It seems like you are reading interview to mean a minimal effort when in fact, any good process of collecting data is going to just as properly be called "interviewing." Just because the press release does not detail methodology does not of necessity invalidate the methodology.

It appears that I gave impression that I'd make a better research than the article authors. It does not surprise me, because even if I didn't mean to imply this - I find that all too often people identify renunciation - with claim to higher knowledge. Let me address this with a quote:

When I left him, I reasoned thus with myself: I am wiser than this man, for neither of us appears to know anything great and good; but he fancies he knows something, although he knows nothing; whereas I, as I do not know anything, so I do not fancy I do. In this trifling particular, then, I appear to be wiser than he, because I do not fancy I know what I do not know.

In my chutzpah, I actually tackled this idea, and not surprisingly - I wouldn't know where to start to get good, reliable conclusions. This is part of the problem I tried to highlight - people often don't realize just how much knowledge and experience it takes to develop a reliable measuring tool, and to execute it. How many doctors and professors feel inadequate in face of such task. To develop clear and unmistakable questions, attach proper values to them, gather data, notice and discard the unreliable parts, notice false correlations etc.
Someone without enough experience, and most importantly who believes he's up to task - is by default not equipped. And I mean young doctors. I fart in general direction of layman reporters who do not realize extent of their own ignorance.

And for the record? I wouldn't even bother asking the manufacturer. Production volume is typically among the most guarded trade secrets, though for different reasons in each industry (some want to create illusion of luxury, others popularity). It's a bit different with publishing industry, where pretty much everyone wants to inflate this number. Without the same auditory body that watches over volume of all publishers, the only thing I'd be comparing was boldness of marketing rep I got forwarded to. There's even chance that I'd be told truth. But I'd have no way of proving that, and telling truth would not even be in best self interest of asked parties, so data I'd get would be unusable.

Besides, was there any reliable research in that field already? If not, the best I could do was to gather the info you've mentioned for sake of future comparison. Right now it'd be unusable. Science doesn't happen overnight :) Though anyone competent (ie renowned Consumer Reports) wouldn't ever use it as anything more than footnote trivia.
 

Hooray! Hooray! Hooray for everybody!

Especially hooray for Pathfinder: the only game to challenge D&D's dominance since Vampire The Masquerade!

Competition is brilliant. It gives us better everything. If Paizo could sit on their rumps making 3.5 splatbooks forever, it would suck more. If WotC could churn out collectable online boardgame experiments (or whatever) without having a solid core publication arm, it would suck more. If White Wolf could continue to market 90's The Crow wangst like it was...well, still the '90's....it would suck more. If FFG could milk plastic for all it was worth, it would suck more.

Instead, they all need to step up their game if they hope to compete with each other. Paizo needs to make a good game. WotC needs to make a good game. Everyone needs to make a good game.

Which means that we, the consumers, win hard.

This still doesn't "settle" anything about any one game over any other, and it doesn't need to be attacked as misinformation (ICv2 has pretty reputable numbers; it's for the industry itself, after all). It's another datapoint. It's really good news for any 4e player, and for any Pathfinder fan. Because both games will have to make themselves better.

Now that it's a dead heat for first place, the race gets exciting. Both companies are going to be spurred on to make some of their best products now. We're going to see greatness about this time next year, I bet. :)
 


Besides, if it was true indication of sales? With Paizo selling it's product directly, and most successful ones via subscription - it'd mean they are in first place.

Not necessarily. I have to believe that WotC still has a better mainstream presence than Paizo does.

I'm not even sure what the chart is measuring. Core rulebook sales? Then I'm not particularly surprised that WotC sales may have seen a downturn in the months immediately prior to the new Essentials rulebooks being released. All sales? Then if we're considering "total market" we'd need to line up WotC's DDI subscription revenue next to Paizo's hardcopy subscriptions.

OTOH, it's not like this is some new survey. It's been around for years. Suddenly decrying its accuracy as soon as it says something you don't like doesn't really mean much to me.

The reality, however, is that there is no good measurement for RPG sales. Hasn't been for at least a decade.
 

Not necessarily. I have to believe that WotC still has a better mainstream presence than Paizo does.

I'm not even sure what the chart is measuring. Core rulebook sales? Then I'm not particularly surprised that WotC sales may have seen a downturn in the months immediately prior to the new Essentials rulebooks being released. All sales? Then if we're considering "total market" we'd need to line up WotC's DDI subscription revenue next to Paizo's hardcopy subscriptions.

OTOH, it's not like this is some new survey. It's been around for years. Suddenly decrying its accuracy as soon as it says something you don't like doesn't really mean much to me.

The reality, however, is that there is no good measurement for RPG sales. Hasn't been for at least a decade.

I believe it looks at the overall brand sales in hobby channel (IE, game stores) markets. The APG this summer was probably a big spike for Pathfinder. I suspect next quarter D&D will be back on top with all the essentials releases.

Yes, it is only one industry indicator. It still is surprising news that any company is even close to the sales of D&D in any portion of the market. I doubt that has happened since the height of White Wolf and the low point of D&D near the end of 2nd Edition. D&D has definitely been the top RPG every quarter since the release of 3E in 2000 until now.
 

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