D&D 5E D&D article on Polygon re: direction of the brand

[Tony Vargas]

Also worth questioning is how or if they self-limited their data collection. Example: that now-legendary customer survey done by Ryan Dancey and WotC in the run-up to 3e's launch excluded all answers from anyone who self-identified as being over a certain age (I think 35); giving them a skewed view of how the game was played and ultimately leading, IMO, to a worse game design.

I doubt that, at least, not for the vague non-statistic in question. Of course, there's really no telling. Most of the playtest-to-current surveys seem to be on-line and self-selecting, though, so there's going to be some skew to the results, from that, before any spin even comes into it.

Anecdotally, I agree with this assessment. 5e's big-tent approach seems, thus far, to be working as intended. Good on 'em!

I was really skeptical, and I'm pleasantly surprised to see it going so well.

As long as WotC realize that not everyone plays the game online, meaning their market for online products will at best be a subset of their overall D&D market, all is good.

By the same token, there's probably a segment that only plays on-line.

 

[Trickster Spirit]

My daughter's D&D group at school is 18-strong. 6 from last year, and a dozen more new - not an official club, just a bunch of enthusiastic players.

Oof, my own group is only 7 players and it's giving me headaches trying to balance time spent in the spotlight. I take it they rotate in and out on a regular basis or have multiple campaigns going on?

 

[bedir than]

Oof, my own group is only 7 players and it's giving me headaches trying to balance time spent in the spotlight. I take it they rotate in and out on a regular basis or have multiple campaigns going on?

I have 10 now, keeping track of a game calendar and off screen days for those that don't show (sessions only have 2-5 players). I'm probably going to write some tricks about managing this. Of my group a majority are 1st time DnD and 2 others haven't played since 2nd edition.

 

[mflayermonk]

In the industry there is a term "brand locomotive" where you have a single property and you attach things to the back of it and the "locomotive (property)" carries along all the other ventures and products behind it.

 

[Zardnaar]

I don't know how he reached that conclusion. So he's getting more data than he used to: with that, you can figure out the average age of people responding to your surveys, now. You can't compare that to past data if you didn't collect data in the past, so you can't conclude 'younger.' You can certainly conclude it anecdotally, and, compared to the 90s when CCGs and LARPs were sucking away the new generation of potential RPG fans, it certainly seems plausible. Likewise, "selling great, but we won't share any numbers," is what WotC has said every time.

I guess, as someone who works with data, I'm just suspicious of those kinds vague claims and conclusions. But, in spite of there being nothing new to the marketing speak, I really do get the impression that D&D has recovered from the Great Recession and the rift of the edition war. For one thing there isn't this cloud of negativity surrounding it, it's own fans are no longer actively trying to wreck it, instead there's a relatively united front of support for the game (Pathfinder notwithstanding). That was a major 5e goal, and it looks to have been successful. The point about using the right technology this time around instead of heavily investing in the wrong technology is also a cogent one, for instance. It's not just picking the right horse this time, it's not betting more than you can afford to lose. WotC has just had a much less risky, more realistic, business plan for D&D this time around, and it's paying off, even if it does mean a slightly lower profile at GenCon.

An ICV2 esitmate came out with the RPG industry climbing from 15 to 25 million. So 5E has sold in excess of $10 million it seems. An esitmate earlier in the year with data from Amazon extimated they had sold 100k PHB which would explain $5 million or so of that so that figure would be plausible.

It has not outsold 2E or 3.0 on release, it has oputsold OD&D and probably 4E in total, and it is probably selling faster than 1E, Pathfinder, and 3.5 although it has not beaten their totals. Assuming the numbers are in the bllpark and Mona/Cook/Dancey are not lying about previous edition sales figures and estimates.

 

[Tony Vargas]

An ICV2 esitmate came out with the RPG industry climbing from 15 to 25 million. So 5E has sold in excess of $10 million it seems.

Well, RPGs went up by 10 million, while D&D was probably most of that, it probably wasn't all of it. Those figures are for 2013 to 2015. In 2013 there was no D&D being published, it was the middle of the Next playtest. 2013 marked a low ebb in the industry for that reason. 25 mill is consistent with the size of the industry in the preceding decade or so.
That's a complete recovery, which is great.

An esitmate earlier in the year with data from Amazon extimated they had sold 100k PHB which would explain $5 million or so of that so that figure would be plausible.

They weren't selling them at full price (much to the consternation of our FLGS), but yeah.

Assuming the numbers are in the bllpark and Mona/Cook/Dancey are not lying about previous edition sales figures and estimates.

Assuming that Dancey/Heinsoo/Mearls haven't been lying, each WotC ed has outsold each prior WotC ed at release, too, FWIW.

The exact numbers behind the industry stay nebulous, with WotC not sharing much, and other participants privately held.

Frankly, I think it's more important that D&D is being comparatively well received by the broader fan-base (no edition war to speak of).

 

[Mistwell]

I don't know how he reached that conclusion.

That's right. You don't. You're not privy to the information he has. You don't know how he got there. So why speculate that you know better and that he's wrong, given he knows more than you do, and has access to data you don't?

I guess, as someone who works with data, I'm just suspicious of those kinds vague claims and conclusions.

It was pretty direct - "players are younger than ever before". Not vague. I get it, you're suspicious. OK. But, that's no reason to assume you know better than he does, given you don't know what he does know about the data he has. Seemed like a pretty unfair spin to put on it, given you're not privy to the information that would allow you to even get to the point where being suspicious would make sense.

 

[Zardnaar]

Well, RPGs went up by 10 million, while D&D was probably most of that, it probably wasn't all of it. Those figures are for 2013 to 2015. In 2013 there was no D&D being published, it was the middle of the Next playtest. 2013 marked a low ebb in the industry for that reason. 25 mill is consistent with the size of the industry in the preceding decade or so.
That's a complete recovery, which is great.

They weren't selling them at full price (much to the consternation of our FLGS), but yeah.

Assuming that Dancey/Heinsoo/Mearls haven't been lying, each WotC ed has outsold each prior WotC ed at release, too, FWIW.

The exact numbers behind the industry stay nebulous, with WotC not sharing much, and other participants privately held.

Frankly, I think it's more important that D&D is being comparatively well received by the broader fan-base (no edition war to speak of).

They have never really claimed each edition is selling better. Normally something like 4E selling better with preorders or 5E doing better. They might be referencing profit margins, 3.5, reviews, opinions who knows.

 

[aramis erak]

Oof, my own group is only 7 players and it's giving me headaches trying to balance time spent in the spotlight. I take it they rotate in and out on a regular basis or have multiple campaigns going on?

They're looking to have 3-4 tables going.

My daughter just asked me for whatever low level adventures I had to hand. Handed her DDEN1, DDEX1-4, DDEX2-5.

 

[Majoru Oakheart]

Lan-"and farming their D&D games out to a third-party group at GenCon seems to have been something of a failure"-efan

It should be noted that the D&D games at GenCon have ALWAYS been run by a third party. Dave Christ has been the person in charge every year since I started going and for years before that. He isn't a WOTC employee but he is a WOTC contractor from time to time(I think. I've heard rumors about them paying him to consult on certain things and he's on their list of people they trust for things like playtesting and the like).

The only D&D WOTC has ever run by themselves at GenCon has been quick 1 hour or less demos in their booth in the Exhibit Hall. They've always preferred to allow Dave to run the gaming room however he sees fit. I mean, Dave didn't start calling himself and his group of volunteers "Baldman Games" until a couple of years ago. Before that it was just that everyone knew Dave Christ volunteered for WOTC to run the room.

Though, I'm not entirely sure how the relationship between the 2 have changed over the years. I always used to think Dave Christ was an employee of WOTC until someone corrected me. But they gave me the impression that WOTC still paid him as a contractor to run the show. Given the banners that were set up every year appeared to come from WOTC themselves, it seemed like WOTC was running the show and they just put a contractor in charge of the actual day to day operation.

Since Dave started calling his company Baldman Games about 5 years ago, there at least as been the perception that the relationship between them changed and Baldman Games was in charge and WOTC just provided support when they could.

WOTC just seemed to have pulled their support completely this year so Baldman was entirely on their own. Though, from everything I hear the problems this year weren't all that much bigger than they've been in past years. It's just that a couple of people made a big deal out of one thing in particular so everyone heard about it. Most of the time there are all sorts of issues. They are dealt with quietly and don't become a public spectacle. This year the All-Access players being unhappy with their experience combined with a general lack of "polish" because there were no castle walls or a Drizz't statue set up in the gaming area caused a lot of grumbling and extra attention. But from what I hear the gaming experience itself was run in pretty much exactly the manor it was for years now.