D&D: big as it ever was? (Forked Thread: So...How are Sales of 4E Product?)

[The Little Raven]

Yep, Gary must have been lying out his ass, but similar statements from today's designers is as good as word from God, gotcha.

Could you point out where anyone accused Gary of lying, as opposed not having accurate numbers?

 

[T. Foster]

Very cool! Thank you.

I can't seem to find the quote on line, and it's not in the Google book sample. I'll have to hunt down the book, always wanted a copy.

Don't get your hopes up too high. That number is thrown out as an aside, as part of a discussion of something else, with no further detail or specifics provided. And the book as a whole is, err, problematic. Gygax goes out of his way to speak in generalities and acts like he's talking about rpgs as a whole when he's really talking about a very specific (and idiosyncratic) approach to D&D and, furthermore, most of the advice he gives are things that are already obvious to anyone who's been playing rpgs for awhile (whereas the tone is so dry that there's almost no chance anyone actually new to rpgs would get through the book). For hardcore Gygaxians (like me) there's some value in the book since he explains some of his philosophy of "what rpgs should be" more clearly here than elsewhere, but as a general-audience book about what rpgs are, or for players looking for specific tips and advice to help them improve their play-experience, it's pretty dreary. The "sequel" book, Master of the Game, is a little better in this regard, as it actually provides some solid, practical advice to GMs.

 

[darjr]

Thanks for that mini review. Still, I want the book for some of the same reasons you do.

 

[darjr]

Yep, Gary must have been lying out his ass, but similar statements from today's designers is as good as word from God, gotcha.

Ugh. Please. Other than the above question asked of you, who said the word of the others was as if it were the word of God?

 

[garyh]

Yep, Gary must have been lying out his ass, but similar statements from today's designers is as good as word from God, gotcha.

I did not accuse Gary of lying. I'm saying that, based on all the evidence we've seen since, TSR did not have the greatest understanding of the market, nor an ability to produce inventory at appropriate levels. These tendencies make me doubt the accuracy of the statements of those involved at the time. Those are completely different things than dishonesty.

And yes, I will take print run data and sales chart info from current products over the vague and un-sourced descriptions of a talented-in-many-ways-that-don't-include-business-savvy creator of the industry. That doesn't mean "word of god" for the current info, either, of course.

 

[T. Foster]

Note that the inventory problems that Ryan Dancey documents were in 1997, a dozen years after Gygax's ouster, and we have no indications that such problems existed during his tenure there. Gary received per-unit royalties on sales of D&D and AD&D books, and continued to do so even after leaving TSR, so he had hard, verifiable data on a quarterly basis of how well product was selling (assuming TSR paid out royalties on something like units distributed minus returns). He presumably applied his own logic to those numbers to arrive at the number of players. That logic may have been flawed or incomplete to some degree, but not likely badly so -- if he estimated 5 million players the actual number could well have been 4 million or 6 million, but not likely 2 million or 9 million.

 

[malraux]

That logic may have been flawed or incomplete to some degree, but not likely badly so -- if he estimated 5 million players the actual number could well have been 4 million or 6 million, but not likely 2 million or 9 million.

Unless it was guesses not based on market research. For example, if he saw that 1 million PHBs were sold, and then assumed that each group would only buy 1 PHB rather than 1 per player, you could get wildly varying results.

Honestly though, the market for such products now vs in the early 80s is so different that its not worth while to evaluate it as such. Much better to look at the last 10 years or so. And doing that, there's good reason to think that WotC has reasonably reliably grown the market for DnD books over the past decade.

 

[garyh]

Note that the inventory problems that Ryan Dancey documents were in 1997, a dozen years after Gygax's ouster, and we have no indications that such problems existed during his tenure there. Gary received per-unit royalties on sales of D&D and AD&D books, and continued to do so even after leaving TSR, so he had hard, verifiable data on a quarterly basis of how well product was selling (assuming TSR paid out royalties on something like units distributed minus returns). He presumably applied his own logic to those numbers to arrive at the number of players. That logic may have been flawed or incomplete to some degree, but not likely badly so -- if he estimated 5 million players the actual number could well have been 4 million or 6 million, but not likely 2 million or 9 million.

I seem to recall that Dancey found tons of 1e stuff, which would have been from Gygax's time at TSR.

Unless it was guesses not based on market research. For example, if he saw that 1 million PHBs were sold, and then assumed that each group would only buy 1 PHB rather than 1 per player, you could get wildly varying results.

Honestly though, the market for such products now vs in the early 80s is so different that its not worth while to evaluate it as such. Much better to look at the last 10 years or so. And doing that, there's good reason to think that WotC has reasonably reliably grown the market for DnD books over the past decade.

This is a very good point. Without asking people how they were using those PHB's, it's really hard to say what's going on out there.

 

[Delta]

D&D was the only thing that kept TSR afloat as long as it did. 2nd Edition was their only real source of profit for the majority of the decade... The mismanagement started much earlier than the 2E era. I know people love Gygax, but the guy mismanaged the company bad enough that he lost control of it.

Are you seriously arguing that everything before, after, and around 2E was messed up as a business, but not 2E? Are you at least aware that TSR went bankrupt in the 2E era?

This is the best data we have to work with:
- Gygax said in 1987 there were some 5 million D&D players.
- WOTC estimated in 1999 there were 1.65 million players.
- WOTC estimated in 2004 there were 3 million players.

Which translates to: Up in 1E, down in 2E, back up in 3E. If anyone has better data I'd love to see it, but that's what we have to date.

 

[T. Foster]

I seem to recall that Dancey found tons of 1e stuff, which would have been from Gygax's time at TSR.

Possibly, but not necessarily. Per The Acaeum (D&D collectors' site), TSR was still printing some 1E titles (Players Handbook (16th-17th printings), DMG (14th printing), Unearthed Arcana (9th-12th printings), Oriental Adventures (2nd printing), and Temple of Elemental Evil module (5th-7th printings)) as late as 1991-92 -- 6+ years after Gygax left (December 31, 1985) and 2-3 years after 2E was released (which speaks to another issue raised in this thread -- how quickly and fully the 1E fanbase embraced 2E: the fact that TSR was still printing new 1E rulebooks years later suggests there must have been at least a few 1E holdouts...).