D&D Has the Biggest Playerbase, So Why is it the Hardest for 3rd Party to Market Too?

[Parmandur]

Well I don't think most people finish AP type adventures so once you have a few from wotc you don;t need any more. Hell go back further to the ToEE lots of people played it few completed it.

I mean I'm not 100% sure but it just sem to be the way with the WoT hardcover APs and the Paizo ones or even the old Dungeons.

I have no idea how many people play or finish any given AP, nor do you: WotC, however, does. They say they switched to one AP storyline a year because that's what the average group can keep up with, and 15 is the level cap of what people can complete on average. If "most people" didn't, would WotC keep making them and would they still sell like hotcakes up to four years after release...?

Keep in mind that WotC abandoned every other publishing strategy they have attempted by this this point in an edition's lifecycle, so the most likely explanation is that this strategy is working for "most people."

 

[Zardnaar]

I have no idea how many people play or finish any given AP, nor do you: WotC, however, does. They say they switched to one AP storyline a year because that's what the average group can keep up with, and 15 is the level cap of what people can complete on average. If "most people" didn't, would WotC keep making them and would they still sell like hotcakes up to four years after release...?

Keep in mind that WotC abandoned every other publishing strategy they have attempted by this this point in an edition's lifecycle, so the most likely explanation is that this strategy is working for "most people."

I have no doubt they are selling but I have seen 3 D&D groups owning them and none of them have been completed. Anecdotal I know but its just a gut feeling over the years of RL experience and talking on forums. I own 4 or 5 of them 0 completed 3 unplayed. Mates own a few as well 0 completed along with the Paizo ones as well.

You do level up faster in 5E so I expect more high level play. Gut feeling is though most groups do not complete APs and similar large adventures (ToEE, Night Below etc). Its not a reflection on the rules more real life gets in the way for a 1 year campaign. I more or less had the same group for a decade but I get the impression that is unusual.

ToEE sold a lot as well and a lot of people played it but not many seem to have finished it.

 

[Parmandur]

I have no doubt they are selling but I have seen 3 D&D groups owning them and none of them have been completed. Anecdotal I know but its just a gut feeling over the years of RL experience and talking on forums. I own 4 or 5 of them 0 completed 3 unplayed. Mates own a few as well 0 completed along with the Paizo ones as well.

You do level up faster in 5E so I expect more high level play. Gut feeling is though most groups do not complete APs and similar large adventures (ToEE, Night Below etc). Its not a reflection on the rules more real life gets in the way for a 1 year campaign. I more or less had the same group for a decade but I get the impression that is unusual.

ToEE sold a lot as well and a lot of people played it but not many seem to have finished it.

So, sample size of 3, versus the per book expectation of selling 100,000 copies to count as successful. I am sure plenty of folks start and don't finish, plenty just read the books, plenty use some material in highly repurposed ways, but I am sure enough are playing all the way to the end. Gut feeling, let's call, combined with business reasoning.

 

[Zardnaar]

So, sample size of 3, versus the per book expectation of selling 100,000 copies to count as successful. I am sure plenty of folks start and don't finish, plenty just read the books, plenty use some material in highly repurposed ways, but I am sure enough are playing all the way to the end. Gut feeling, let's call, combined with business reasoning.

You are mistaking sales with people playing. Its not a sample size of 3 its 25 years+ of playing with multiple groups plus a lot of forums groups and talking to people online and in teamspeak and reading what ex TSR, WoTC and Paizo writers speak about in regards to higher level modules.

I own 80 odd 3E books, 60 odd 2E books being honest barely used most of them. I could be completely wrong of course but I still suspect most people don't play higher levels that much relative to low level play and that by iteslef limits the amount of APs completed. 5E has a lot of new players apparently and I don't really see them changing that so unless some sort of miracle has happened to change 40 year of D&D isms I'm probably not to far wrong.

 

[Parmandur]

You are mistaking sales with people playing. Its not a sample size of 3 its 25 years+ of playing with multiple groups plus a lot of forums groups and talking to people online and in teamspeak and reading what ex TSR, WoTC and Paizo writers speak about in regards to higher level modules.

I own 80 odd 3E books, 60 odd 2E books being honest barely used most of them. I could be completely wrong of course but I still suspect most people don't play higher levels that much relative to low level play and that by iteslef limits the amount of APs completed. 5E has a lot of new players apparently and I don't really see them changing that so unless some sort of miracle has happened to change 40 year of D&D isms I'm probably not to far wrong.

Yes, there are far many more tables playing than those that use the APs, since home brewing is assumed and encouraged by the core books. But each individual AP is expected to sell at least 100,000 copies (we can safely assume they are meeting the numbers since they keep making them), which represents tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of tables. This is far beyond your handful, and WotC has stated that they know most groups play weekly for about a year before changing things up, and up to ~level 12-14. So, the APs are designed to reach a conclusion after about a year of weekly play by level 15. I doubt that this is coincidental at all, but an indication that they are designed to fit actual play usage.

 

[Zardnaar]

Yes, there are far many more tables playing than those that use the APs, since home brewing is assumed and encouraged by the core books. But each individual AP is expected to sell at least 100,000 copies (we can safely assume they are meeting the numbers since they keep making them), which represents tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of tables. This is far beyond your handful, and WotC has stated that they know most groups play weekly for about a year before changing things up, and up to ~level 12-14. So, the APs are designed to reach a conclusion after about a year of weekly play by level 15. I doubt that this is coincidental at all, but an indication that they are designed to fit actual play usage.

I know, with a million games for example even if 10% complete the APs that is still going to be 100 000 groups completing it. Or 10 000 if its 100k. That is still only 10% though and a lot of people will buy anything with the D&D name on it, collectors, the hard core, people who like D&D but do not have a group.

I know the APs have been designed for the year thing, they are/were releasing 2 a year. We know the PHB is selling well, the goal is to sell 100k whether or not they met that goal with every release IDK. I suspect HotDQ is the biggest selling one and that is a terrible adventure (I own it), and that is based on when it came out not the adventure actually being good. So sales are not related to quality or even people playing it IMHO but more with the D&D brand, 5E overall success, when the adventure came out etc. The good adventures IMHO are PotA, LMoP, Tomb of Annihilation maybe Strahd but not a RL/Strahd fan so I skipped that one.

Rise of Tiamat is a decent book end its redeeming quality being its better than HotD. HotDQ had some nice chapters to mine, OotA looks like to much effort to run, SKT looked weak. Wonder how many people completed the Dragon duology or even made it to RoT. APs by their nature are going to be hit and miss, Paizo made 4 good early ones in a row then kinda dropped the ball with a couple.

 

[Dausuul]

Well you design a few and its more real life time. It take about a year of weekly play to complete one of those adventures and most players still don't do high level.

None of that matters to the question of whether people need to keep buying adventures or not.

If you aren't homebrewing your own campaigns, you need to buy published adventures. And you need to keep buying them if you want to keep playing. Whether you finish them or not is irrelevant.

 

[Parmandur]

I know, with a million games for example even if 10% complete the APs that is still going to be 100 000 groups completing it. Or 10 000 if its 100k. That is still only 10% though and a lot of people will buy anything with the D&D name on it, collectors, the hard core, people who like D&D but do not have a group.

I know the APs have been designed for the year thing, they are/were releasing 2 a year. We know the PHB is selling well, the goal is to sell 100k whether or not they met that goal with every release IDK. I suspect HotDQ is the biggest selling one and that is a terrible adventure (I own it), and that is based on when it came out not the adventure actually being good. So sales are not related to quality or even people playing it IMHO but more with the D&D brand, 5E overall success, when the adventure came out etc. The good adventures IMHO are PotA, LMoP, Tomb of Annihilation maybe Strahd but not a RL/Strahd fan so I skipped that one.

Rise of Tiamat is a decent book end its redeeming quality being its better than HotD. HotDQ had some nice chapters to mine, OotA looks like to much effort to run, SKT looked weak. Wonder how many people completed the Dragon duology or even made it to RoT. APs by their nature are going to be hit and miss, Paizo made 4 good early ones in a row then kinda dropped the ball with a couple.

I see no particular reason to suspect that HotDQ is the best selling AP, I'd wager on Princes if the Apocalypse (which ties in well with the Starter Set) or Curse of Strahd, but I wouldn't be surprised if the sales have been increasing year to year, so Sky King's Thunder or Tomb of Annhilation might be the best seller.

I see no reason to assume that ten percent it ninety percent are finishing them, as I have no data.

 

[Zardnaar]

I see no particular reason to suspect that HotDQ is the best selling AP, I'd wager on Princes if the Apocalypse (which ties in well with the Starter Set) or Curse of Strahd, but I wouldn't be surprised if the sales have been increasing year to year, so Sky King's Thunder or Tomb of Annhilation might be the best seller.

I see no reason to assume that ten percent it ninety percent are finishing them, as I have no data.

I think PoTA might be the best overall one and yes it ties in with LMoP the best. Its also the best one for the DM to tweak or play up various aspects of it such as the factions or NPCs. I also like how it ties the PCs to an area so they might actually care about the NPCs and their homes. LMoP is a modern classic.

 

[Zardnaar]

I see no particular reason to suspect that HotDQ is the best selling AP, I'd wager on Princes if the Apocalypse (which ties in well with the Starter Set) or Curse of Strahd, but I wouldn't be surprised if the sales have been increasing year to year, so Sky King's Thunder or Tomb of Annhilation might be the best seller.

I see no reason to assume that ten percent it ninety percent are finishing them, as I have no data.

Its because at the tie it was more or less the only available adventure unless you went 3pp which is the point of this thread. hell I have run more 3pp adventures than the WotC ones as I find the Quests of Doom ones better for actually completing them or the older 32 page B/X series are a "long" module to me.

Hasn't WoT shifted more towards level 1-10 with recent AP's? I have not paid much attention to anything after OoTA and barely looked at my copies of SKT and ToA due tio RL and the last 6 months. Still using NPCs, spells etc from PoTA when we play (currently on hiatus so not actually paying).