D&D 5E D&D Next Release Date Set -- Summer 2014

[Umbran]

It worked incredibly well actually. WOTC said 4e's initial sales, in the first year, outsold both the 3.0e and 3.5e first year sales. And the sales for both 3.0e and 3.5e blew through all their expectations at the time. So, in sum, it worked well.

Agreed.

The problem with 4e was it didn't appeal to enough people, once they actually did play it. It did not sustain enough of those players who initially tried it out.

I might amend that to, "4e did not keep as many players as they expected it to." The problem could have been in the game, or the expectations, or both. Not knowing much about the expectations, we cannot really say. Given that there's estimates that the subscribers were in the tens of thousands (so, not at all shabby), I have to at least question whether the expectations set may have been unreasonable for *any* game to meet.

But that's not a marketing issue - if it's not a game you like once you try it, no amount of marketing will convince you otherwise.

Agreed.

Now I agree WOTC will do more marketing for 5e than they did for either 4e or 3e. But, I think you're incorrect in saying word of mouth has no substantial impact, or that it did not work well for 4e. I also do not think they will be using the DDI method as the primary means of selling the product - you will see plenty of print with this edition.

Probably correct. I also agree with billd91 - it occurs to me that the drought of 4e products in the run-up to the new edition may be a good thing, as more groups may be more willing to switch over immediately.

 

[sunshadow21]

Probably correct. I also agree with billd91 - it occurs to me that the drought of 4e products in the run-up to the new edition may be a good thing, as more groups may be more willing to switch over immediately.

That will help a lot with the established 4E base, but not with the lapsed players they are trying to reach, most of whom have found homes elsewhere where there isn't a lack of product to work with. I'm not saying that WotC doesn't have a chance, just that they are going to have to work for this one to be a success. The established community they have to start from simply is not large enough by itself to pull off the kind of expectations that WotC/Hasbro will certainly have. They are going to have to learn from the mistakes they made with 4E not just at launch but for the first year of that product line as a whole. Burying this particular announcement probably won't hurt them, but it also won't inspire confidence in those who already distrust WotC's marketing capabilities, and so doesn't make an already challenging task any easier.

 

[Mistwell]

I might amend that to, "4e did not keep as many players as they expected it to." The problem could have been in the game, or the expectations, or both. Not knowing much about the expectations, we cannot really say. Given that there's estimates that the subscribers were in the tens of thousands (so, not at all shabby), I have to at least question whether the expectations set may have been unreasonable for *any* game to meet.

I agree. I think it's entirely possible that 4e sales would have been considered a success for some companies. But it did not meet WOTC's standards, and it's unclear if those standards were reasonable to begin with. Given the standards were drafted at a time when the game was supposed to have substantially more connection to an (working, complete) online platform than it turned out to have (after some rather dire and unusual events behind the scenes that derailed things), I suspect their standards were not realistic for the game they did eventually publish. I don't know if it would have gone different, had the digital component been released as planned.

 

[Umbran]

Burying this particular announcement probably won't hurt them, but it also won't inspire confidence in those who already distrust WotC's marketing capabilities....

I don't choose to play a game based upon my confidence in the company's marketing capabilities. Most RPG companies have no reliable marketing capabilities to speak of, and I find their marketing capabilities have very little correlation to the quality of the game they produce.

 

[sunshadow21]

I don't choose to play a game based upon my confidence in the company's marketing capabilities. Most RPG companies have no reliable marketing capabilities to speak of, and I find their marketing capabilities have very little correlation to the quality of the game they produce.

You may not, but the business suits behind the decisions of whether to license a product through WotC do, and many people, for better or for worse, use a company's ability and willingness to market it as a gauge of overall support and direction for the product, so yes, it does matter, especially when setting goals that are a challenge to meet under ideal circumstances. Missing the little details won't hurt if it's only one or two, but they add up quick, and WotC has shown themselves to be very bad in that aspect in the past. And while their marketing capability may not have a direct correlation with the quality of the product, poor marketing will adversely impact the resources available to the long term support and development of the game; 4E is living proof of this. The system itself didn't have any glaring problems, save a severe lack of options at release (half the expected races and classes is not helpful), and that problem was dealt with reasonably effectively as long as book sales kept up; as soon as the sales started to dry up, so did non-DDI content and the ease of new players to see and learn about the system. Marketing doesn't have to be hard, or even super expensive, but it does require effort and being proactive, something that WotC has never really done well, and really didn't do well with 4E. If Next is going to be the success they want it to be, they have to change that. Lower than expected sales over the long run won't limit licensing opportunities, but perceived apathy on the part of the company publishing it will.

 

[sunshadow21]

I agree. I think it's entirely possible that 4e sales would have been considered a success for some companies. But it did not meet WOTC's standards, and it's unclear if those standards were reasonable to begin with. Given the standards were drafted at a time when the game was supposed to have substantially more connection to an (working, complete) online platform than it turned out to have (after some rather dire and unusual events behind the scenes that derailed things), I suspect their standards were not realistic for the game they did eventually publish. I don't know if it would have gone different, had the digital component been released as planned.

I don't know that it would have been that much different even with the digital tools. Even working and complete tools still require that the user understands how to fully leverage them and when to look for other tools to make up for the weaknesses of the tools in front of them. WotC is good at many things, but understanding both the challenges and strengths presented by digital media is not one of their stronger points. The standards still probably would have been unrealistic even with a solid digital presence. The only difference is that they might have sustained enough interest to get other related projects off the ground; I doubt much would have changed regarding the system itself or direct support for the system.

 

[fjw70]

I have no doubt that the lead up to 5e will see a huge marketing effort by WotC. I expect it will not only cover traditional gaming channels but more mainstream channels as well.

 

[Sword of Spirit]

How many D&D players of any edition don't have at least one member of their group take a look at a new edition of the game when it comes out? I seriously doubt there are many D&D* players who will miss the memo about 5e. Even amongst the non-D&D role-players, most are going to know about the new edition when it comes out. Convincing people who are completely committed to their edition of choice to give it a try may be a challenge. But, really, most people aren't edition fanatics.


* Including Pathfinder and retro-clones

 

[sunshadow21]

I have no doubt that the lead up to 5e will see a huge marketing effort by WotC. I expect it will not only cover traditional gaming channels but more mainstream channels as well.

4E did as well; that wasn't the problem. The problem came when they stopped a month after the game was released assuming that the game itself was all the marketing they needed. It's not the marketing effort at release I am interested in seeing, it's how much effort are they still putting into it at 6 months to a year after release.