D&D 5E D&D Next Release Date Set -- Summer 2014

I don't see how coming out with a game two and a half years after it was announced (and presumably longer since active design first began) is "rushing it."

There is a common idea that is implied, if never outright stated, that I find odd - that Wizards of the Coast is completely unable to playtest on their own, as if they need to test everything with tens of thousands of D&D players. Don't folks realize that they've been playtesting in-house all along and that the in-house playtesting holds much more weight than your feedback and that of the other tens of thousands?

Part of the purpose of open playtesting - perhaps the biggest (but unstated) purpose - is to make fans feel like they are part of the process, that it is their (our) game. I'm not saying that they ignore external feedback, just that it is secondary to their own in-house work, and that feedback is of secondary importance to making us feel like we are part of the process.

So I imagine a timeline like so (speculations in italics):

June, 2008: 4e comes out
September, 2008: WotC: "Oops, that didn't go so well. Better start a company drive called '5E ideas'."
September, 2010: Essentials--aka Slaviscek's Last Stand--comes out
December, 2010: "OK, we better start working on 5e."
January, 2011: In-house discussions and design work begins on 5e
Summer, 2011: In-house playtesting begins
January, 2012: 5e announced
May, 2012: Public playtesting begins
Summer, 2013: 5e rules 98% finalized
September, 2013: Last playtest packet
Fall, 2013: 5e rules 100% finalized
December, 2013: Publication time announced as summer, final touches on books - formatting, art, etc
January, 2014: Books sent to printer

Summer, 2014: 5e books for sale
Fall, 2014: "Uh-oh, we didn't please all possible fans in every possible way. Better start a company drive called '6E ideas'."
4e initially sold very well. It was likely a year after, in 2009, that they noticed a dip in sales, when the PHB2 didn't do too well. That'd be when they started work on Essentials to try and salvage 4e.
5e likely become an option until early 2011.

If 5e doesn't do gangbusters they won't think 6e. I don't think we'll see a new edition...
 

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Mercurius

Legend
4e initially sold very well. It was likely a year after, in 2009, that they noticed a dip in sales, when the PHB2 didn't do too well. That'd be when they started work on Essentials to try and salvage 4e.
5e likely become an option until early 2011.

If 5e doesn't do gangbusters they won't think 6e. I don't think we'll see a new edition...

4e sold well at first, yes, but it wasn't received that well by the community - so I think the inkling of "Renton, we have a problem" began right in 2008. And it wasn't just that people had issues with it, there wasn't a huge fan-base of those who absolutely loved it. There were (and are) a few, but nothing like the "3e fanatics" that continue to this day, albeit largely under the purview of Pathfinder.

I agree that if 5e doesn't sell really well we won't see 6e...from Wizards of the Coast, at least, and for quite some time. I think we'd see a gradual wind down over a few years - they'd probably really give it a shot before throwing in the towel - and then it would be put on a dusty shelf somewhere. Then, a few years later, some enterprising nerd who made a fortune on the interwebs would buy the license from WotC, and we'd see a re-boot.

And then, of course, we'd see yet another cycle of failure and D&D would be shelved for decades as an anachronism of the 20th century like VHS tapes and disco. But then, sometime in the 2060s or 2070s, you'd have the first wave of cybernetically-enhanced Gen Xers becoming centenarians and feeling nostalgic for their youth of imagination and wonder. "Remember when we used our imaginations and didn't just plug-in to programmed simulations of real experiences?" We'd see a renaissance of D&D which would become a cultural revolution. By the 22nd century the great AI consciousness called simply The Gygax would be the dominant force in human existence...

But I don't think it will fail. And even if the tabletop RPG doesn't go "gangbusters," they've got this whole multi-platform approach, so we're likely to see movies, video games and such, so that the original RPG might end up being the loss-leader to the larger D&D franchise.
 

GX.Sigma

Adventurer
May, 2012: Public playtesting begins
Summer, 2013: 5e rules 98% finalized
September, 2013: Last playtest packet
Fall, 2013: 5e rules 100% finalized
This seems way too optimistic (or pessimistic, depending on how you're looking at it). I have not seen anything from the D&D team to lead me to believe the game is anywhere close to 'finalized.' It's more like 60% complete and 0% finalized.
 

Mercurius

Legend
This seems way too optimistic (or pessimistic, depending on how you're looking at it). I have not seen anything from the D&D team to lead me to believe the game is anywhere close to 'finalized.' It's more like 60% complete and 0% finalized.

Maybe I over-exaggerated, but I think they're a lot further along than your numbers and we've got some proof to that effect: A summer release date. The latest possible date would be GenCon, which is eight months from now. Chances are they're shooting for 1-2 months before that, however, so people know the rules at the convention. So we're 6-8 months away from having a meaty hands on a 5e Player's Handbook. I'm assuming that it takes at least 4 months for books to be printed and distributed, and possible more than that, which means that full finalization would be somewhere in the February to April range.

So I'm guessing that, right now, the books have 90+% of the text and art, with the rules also 90ish% finalized. Or something like that. Over the next month or two will be final rules tweaks, book formatting, and final text and art additions and edits. I'm guessing the books will be 100% complete and off to the printers in 1-2 months.
 

Kramodlog

Naked and living in a barrel
This seems way too optimistic (or pessimistic, depending on how you're looking at it). I have not seen anything from the D&D team to lead me to believe the game is anywhere close to 'finalized.' It's more like 60% complete and 0% finalized.
Are you talking about the public playtest? Cause who says the public playtest was what they were working on behind closed doors or that it was 100% of what they were working with?

They could have had more more complicated/complete/different rules behind closed doors and the public playtest were tests for a few concepts andkeep fans engaged while D&D wasn't being published for two years.
 

Gadget

Adventurer
I've always held that the public play test was more of a large scale focus group to gage reaction to certain concepts than an actual nuts and bolts, "this is exactly what we are doing with the game" type of thing. At least, in light of this announcement, I hope it was so. The latest packet still seemed pretty rough around the edges to me. I'm sure they were working on and testing many things in the closed play test that were never brought into the open one, and it seems like they were much more than "an iteration or so ahead" of the public play test. Perhaps they even just 'back ported' a few key concepts into the older play test frame to engender feedback over the last few months of the public play test.
 


I don't see how coming out with a game two and a half years after it was announced (and presumably longer since active design first began) is "rushing it."

There is a common idea that is implied, if never outright stated, that I find odd - that Wizards of the Coast is completely unable to playtest on their own, as if they need to test everything with tens of thousands of D&D players. Don't folks realize that they've been playtesting in-house all along and that the in-house playtesting holds much more weight than your feedback and that of the other tens of thousands?

Part of the purpose of open playtesting - perhaps the biggest (but unstated) purpose - is to make fans feel like they are part of the process, that it is their (our) game. I'm not saying that they ignore external feedback, just that it is secondary to their own in-house work, and that feedback is of secondary importance to making us feel like we are part of the process.

So I imagine a timeline like so (speculations in italics):

June, 2008: 4e comes out
September, 2008: WotC: "Oops, that didn't go so well. Better start a company drive called '5E ideas'."
September, 2010: Essentials--aka Slaviscek's Last Stand--comes out
December, 2010: "OK, we better start working on 5e."
January, 2011: In-house discussions and design work begins on 5e
Summer, 2011: In-house playtesting begins
January, 2012: 5e announced
May, 2012: Public playtesting begins
Summer, 2013: 5e rules 98% finalized
September, 2013: Last playtest packet
Fall, 2013: 5e rules 100% finalized
December, 2013: Publication time announced as summer, final touches on books - formatting, art, etc
January, 2014: Books sent to printer

Summer, 2014: 5e books for sale
Fall, 2014: "Uh-oh, we didn't please all possible fans in every possible way. Better start a company drive called '6E ideas'."

It's a bit of a cynical view.

I actually think that WotC have reassessed their business model - away from the new-edition-every-few-years model (we all knew that 4e was in the pipeline years before it was announced, didn't we?) - and into that of a longterm core game brand that is used as the basis of a wide variety of 'multimedia' (whatever that is). 'Tis why there is all that talk about it being a 'unifying edition' and why they want to just call it 'D&D' (without an emphasizing which edition it is), and why they chose to take two and a half years to develop/playtest/market it publicly.

As I said before, the actual sales of the new edition is secondary to the ownership of the 'D&D' brand and the public's perception of that brand. They'll make more money through the multimedia. Conversely, they won't be wanting to make new editions every few years anymore, as it dilutes the value of the brand itself.
 
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I don't see how coming out with a game two and a half years after it was announced (and presumably longer since active design first began) is "rushing it."

The length of the playtest is completely irrelevent. I'm basing my concern on what we saw in the playtest combined with the information that they have "leaked" concerning what they are doing behind the scenes. While I, of course, can't see the full picture, I can make a few educated guesses based on the tone and content of L&L and Q&A articles, Mike Mearls tweets, etc. For instance:

1. Warlock and Sorcerer are probably really close to finalized, but not there yet. And "finalized" doesn't necessarily mean every subclass they plan to put in the PHB is done--I consider that content more than concept.
2. The core rules are probably really close to finalized. They have still been tweaking them the last we've heard. There is also a degree of uncertainty in the way rules tweaks are leaked. "What we're thinking right now..." may mean "We've got it completely decided, but we don't want to say that and start a flame war," but it may also mean, "we aren't quite sure yet." I think there is a combination of both of those running around on different rules.
3. I can confidently say that I have no idea how much of the intended content (including subclasses, spells, feats) is completed. The problem with completion of content is that concept (meaning rules mechanics) needs to be set in stone before content is finalized. I'm actually optimistic that we will see a good amount of such content in the PHB. Probably not the 6-12 subclasses for each class that I'm hoping for, but I get the impression that we will at least get what is necessary for all the iconics (8 schools of wizardry, for instance).
4. I get the feeling that they are well into the work on optional systems, such as realms management, tactical combat, etc, and I'd assume that they are at least making decisions about how much of it is going to make the PHB+DMG and how much of it will have to be held off for another book. On the other hand, I would be quite surprised if they had finished the majority of the systems we've heard mentioned over the past 2 years.
5. I think they have more or less decided on the default cosmology/setting/creature assumptions and how to integrate them with the rules. However, as we can see by the inclusion of a poll in the most recent Wandering Monsters, they are apparently still open to at least some input. Of course, I also get the feel that most of the polling may be rhetorical at this point, or at least primarily intended on seeing if there are any unforeseen issues or overwhelming majority objection to specifics.

There is a common idea that is implied, if never outright stated, that I find odd - that Wizards of the Coast is completely unable to playtest on their own, as if they need to test everything with tens of thousands of D&D players. Don't folks realize that they've been playtesting in-house all along and that the in-house playtesting holds much more weight than your feedback and that of the other tens of thousands?

Part of the purpose of open playtesting - perhaps the biggest (but unstated) purpose - is to make fans feel like they are part of the process, that it is their (our) game. I'm not saying that they ignore external feedback, just that it is secondary to their own in-house work, and that feedback is of secondary importance to making us feel like we are part of the process.

I completely agree that playtesting isn't about "playtesting." We are a large focus group to make sure the game goes over well. I'm actually rather pleased with that level of involvement. I'd rather provide feedback on how to make D&D overall, rather than comment on how AC values are a point too high or low. I also agree that WotC are capable of taking care of the actual playtesting concerns in-house. What they aren't capable of taking care of in-house is taking the pulse of 175,000 players to find out that a lot of people don't want dragon eggs to hatch dragonborn because the dragons didn't please their gods. That's why it is to their advantage to run stuff past us. Of course, they can't (and shouldn't) run everything past us. They have to make judgements, and I understand that.

I just have a really hard time feeling confident that they are going to be able to iron out all of that stuff in a couple of months so they can send it off to the printers. Given that we have people working there who have been there for previous edition releases (at least 4e), hopefully my concerns are uncalled for. But the way I see it, the last couple of months are a time period that should be reserved for adding content and editing, not finishing the rules and adding subsystems. Of course, now that I think of it, it's quite likely that if they did it that way corporate would tell them they don't need those last couple of months because they can always put out more content later, so perhaps it was an intentional good move to make sure nothing is finalized until right before the books head off to the presses so they can put in all the content we need in there. I do believe that the designers and developers love the game and want to make it the best it can be. I think they are trying to make it a game they want to play and they hope will meet the needs of as many players as possible. In short, I actually believe they are being honest with us. I'm not concerned with their intentions, just the uncertainty of the timing.
 

GX.Sigma

Adventurer
Are you talking about the public playtest? Cause who says the public playtest was what they were working on behind closed doors or that it was 100% of what they were working with?
I'm more thinking about the snippets of communication where they say things like "here's one way [x] could work..." where x is a pretty important thing. I infer from their communication that they haven't yet done any serious development on the modular aspect of the game, which was supposed to be a really important part of the new edition.
 

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