D&D 5E D&D Next Release Date Set -- Summer 2014

[sunshadow21]

Keeping high interest that long could cost them a lot of money, and it isn't entirely possible to "burn out" the anticipation of the audience.

Keeping high interest after the release is also going to likely cost them a a fair bit of money, and if they aren't willing to spend it now, what makes you think that their task is going to be any easier after the release, or that the corporate suits will be any more inclined to spend money later on? WotC is not going to be able to use word of mouth to sell this edition; too many people have simply tuned out. Money will have to be spent, and lots of it over a fairly long period of time. They aren't doing themselves any favors by passing over such a key announcement so blandly; they need wide spread attention, if for no other reason than to make sure as many people as possible are aware when they do start spending the money.

 

[Trickster Spirit]

The D&D PR machine has not really started yet, so I wouldn't worry too much about the lack of publicity for Next at this time. I'm sure everyone who might be a potential customer will know about D&D Next in the coming months.

As for "Bridging the Rift", if you mean that folks that only play Pathfinder are going go back to D&D, I doubt it. Pathfinder will continue to have the advantages that appeal to its customers: great adventure writers, great customer support, James Jacobs (has there ever been a designer more responsive to inquiries than this man?), it uses the OGL, and it has a company CEO that *plays the game*. On the other hand, I think Next does bring an end to the Pathfinder vs. 4E D&D edition wars. I don't think many Pathfinder fans have animosity towards Next - they just don't need it. (I'm certainly in that category.) I'm sure some will test it out, but I don't expect many to switch.

Now, if Next uses the OGL and 3PPs produce some fantastic content, that might change things, but I don't see it happening in the short term.

Everything you say here make up all the reasons why, when it comes to picking a company I'd rather hand my dollars to, I'd pick Paizo over WotC. And yet, I am one of those Pathfinder players (well, DM, actually) who'll likely switch to Next. I just... like what I've seen of it so far more than I like Pathfinder. It has an immense amount of potential. I'm one of those who sincerely wished that Paizo would've released a levels 5-20 expansion for the Beginner Box, while understanding why that wasn't really feasible for them; Next, in at least one of its myriad configurations, looks like it will supply me with the light and flexible rules system I've been looking for. I'm simply tired of 3.5 / Pathfinder's crunch heaviness, and frankly I'd like a system that I might actually be able to run at high levels.

That said, I still love Paizo and will be converting over their adventure paths for use in Next. As I understand it, that's their bread and butter product anyway, so it's a win / win / win scenario.

 

[DaveMage]

Everything you say here make up all the reasons why, when it comes to picking a company I'd rather hand my dollars to, I'd pick Paizo over WotC. And yet, I am one of those Pathfinder players (well, DM, actually) who'll likely switch to Next. I just... like what I've seen of it so far more than I like Pathfinder. It has an immense amount of potential. I'm one of those who sincerely wished that Paizo would've released a levels 5-20 expansion for the Beginner Box, while understanding why that wasn't really feasible for them; Next, in at least one of its myriad configurations, looks like it will supply me with the light and flexible rules system I've been looking for. I'm simply tired of 3.5 / Pathfinder's crunch heaviness, and frankly I'd like a system that I might actually be able to run at high levels.

That said, I still love Paizo and will be converting over their adventure paths for use in Next. As I understand it, that's their bread and butter product anyway, so it's a win / win / win scenario.

I can understand wanting a lighter rules system. Play does get slow sometimes due to the rules, but it's never been too bad that it's affected things overmuch in my games, but I get that others have had it differently. My hope is that WotC will release the rules for free (similar to the SRD was for 3.x) so that those that are curious can check it out.

I've GMed 26th level gestalt characters in 3.5, so I do get the challenges of high level play, but they've never bothered me. (Actually, the thing I'm most disappointed with Paizo with is that they haven't addressed levels 21+. Mythic rules don't quite cut it IMO, as I want to look at a 3.5 product that says, say, a 29th level wizard and convert it to "official" Pathfinder, but there are no rules to do so.)

 

[Mistwell]

Keeping high interest after the release is also going to likely cost them a a fair bit of money, and if they aren't willing to spend it now, what makes you think that their task is going to be any easier after the release, or that the corporate suits will be any more inclined to spend money later on? WotC is not going to be able to use word of mouth to sell this edition; too many people have simply tuned out. Money will have to be spent, and lots of it over a fairly long period of time. They aren't doing themselves any favors by passing over such a key announcement so blandly; they need wide spread attention, if for no other reason than to make sure as many people as possible are aware when they do start spending the money.

It's much easier to justify spending right before, or during, a release than it is to justify it well before the release. Because the money you make from the release (and the pre-purchases from distributors) is used to help defer the cost of the marketing. So yes, it's easier to spend money on marketing while making money from the product you are marketing - which is why almost all products are marketed that way. You don't typically spend much on marketing 6 months prior to the product even being available.

And I think you're wrong on word of mouth. If the edition is good, word of mouth will spread and it will sell. If it's bad, it won't.

Also, I see nothing at all that is "key" about this announcement. It's not a firm date it's just a vague range of dates.

 

[Umbran]

Keeping high interest after the release is also going to likely cost them a a fair bit of money

Nope. After the release, you have actual product. People are playing the game - that keeps the interest up right there. It is beforehand, when you have nothing to give them, that keeping interest is expensive.

 

[sunshadow21]

Nope. After the release, you have actual product. People are playing the game - that keeps the interest up right there. It is beforehand, when you have nothing to give them, that keeping interest is expensive.

Yeah, that worked so well for 4E; oh wait, it didn't. Unless you were actually playing it or knew one of the few people that were already, there was no real source of interest to feed off of to get started playing. Word of mouth by itself doesn't work all that great without a very large network, and if they go with DDI again, and they probably will in some form, then that word of mouth network is going to be small enough that it isn't going to be enough by itself. They will need to spend money to keep interest up because most of the actual content will not be accessible until someone is convinced to pay for a subscription. DDI may be a very good way for WotC to get content to their fans, and make money in the process, but it does cut out a large part of the usual routes for getting more or less free advertising and promotion from other sources, since WotC controls everything themselves, with no middle man involved. That was a problem in 4E, and it will continue to be a problem with Next if they keep on the same trend they are on now. Now, if they loosen the the license a bit and actually make print materials a priority, than 3PPs, bookstores, and game stores will once again be willing and active participants of the process, and the need for spending on advertising will be less, but without that outside support, which won't be there if WotC insists on doing everything themselves again, they will need to spend money to make money. This is not necessarily bad, but is different from how games in this market are usually supported, and WotC needs to adjust accordingly if they want to succeed. Cutting out the middleman has consequences, and one of those consequences is that self advertising, which costs money, becomes more important throughout the entire life cycle of the edition, not just the initial release.

 

[Mistwell]

Yeah, that worked so well for 4E; oh wait, it didn't.

It worked incredibly well actually. WOTC said 4e's initial sales, in the first year, outsold both the 3.0e and 3.5e first year sales. And the sales for both 3.0e and 3.5e blew through all their expectations at the time. So, in sum, it worked well.

The problem with 4e was it didn't appeal to enough people, once they actually did play it. It did not sustain enough of those players who initially tried it out.

But that's not a marketing issue - if it's not a game you like once you try it, no amount of marketing will convince you otherwise.

Now I agree WOTC will do more marketing for 5e than they did for either 4e or 3e. But, I think you're incorrect in saying word of mouth has no substantial impact, or that it did not work well for 4e. I also do not think they will be using the DDI method as the primary means of selling the product - you will see plenty of print with this edition.

 

[Derren]

It worked incredibly well actually. WOTC said 4e's initial sales, in the first year, outsold both the 3.0e and 3.5e first year sales. And the sales for both 3.0e and 3.5e blew through all their expectations at the time. So, in sum, it worked well.

The problem with 4e was it didn't appeal to enough people, once they actually did play it. It did not sustain enough of those players who initially tried it out.

But that's not a marketing issue - if it's not a game you like once you try it, no amount of marketing will convince you otherwise.

Now I agree WOTC will do more marketing for 5e than they did for either 4e or 3e. But, I think you're incorrect in saying word of mouth has no substantial impact, or that it did not work well for 4e. I also do not think they will be using the DDI method as the primary means of selling the product - you will see plenty of print with this edition.

Problem is 4Es word of mouth marketing was mainly targeted at D&D players to get them to buy the new edition. For this purpose, word of mouth works well as it is much more likely to spread within the D&D community as outside of it.

With 5E that won't work any more as after the mass exodus the D&D community shrunk so much that WotC needs to attract outside players, either new ones or from other systems which requires a more visible form of marketing than word of mouth. To get those players it is not enough to simply say "There is a new edition!", you also have to point out what it makes better than what they currently play (or why they should play a PnP rpg over video games, etc. and also chose 5E)

 

[billd91]

It worked incredibly well actually. WOTC said 4e's initial sales, in the first year, outsold both the 3.0e and 3.5e first year sales. And the sales for both 3.0e and 3.5e blew through all their expectations at the time. So, in sum, it worked well.

The problem with 4e was it didn't appeal to enough people, once they actually did play it. It did not sustain enough of those players who initially tried it out.

But that's not a marketing issue - if it's not a game you like once you try it, no amount of marketing will convince you otherwise.

That last bit is true. I, for example, bought the PH and DMG and came to the conclusion I didn't like the game as a D&D game very much. However, I think 4e's release did need more (competent) marketing for some time after launch. One thing I noticed a lot of people saying was they were going to check out 4e once their current 3.5 (or other) campaign was over and I wonder for how many people this was actually fulfilled. 4e came on the heels of other 3.5 materials and I think marketing efforts might have been well-invested to keep 4e more prominent as 3.5 games wound down.

I think Next is in a relatively fortunate position by comparison - they're currently leaving the D&D market underfed with product. It'll be hungrier for Next than it was for 4e.

 

[sunshadow21]

With 5E that won't work any more as after the mass exodus the D&D community shrunk so much that WotC needs to attract outside players, either new ones or from other systems which requires a more visible form of marketing than word of mouth. To get those players it is not enough to simply say "There is a new edition!", you also have to point out what it makes better than what they currently play (or why they should play a PnP rpg over video games, etc. and also chose 5E)

Very much this, world of mouth works very well within the existing active community, but that clearly was not enough for 4E, precisely because most of the community did not actually have a need or interest in it, and the established community this time around is much smaller, making the challenge much harder. Considering that they are trying to pull lapsed fans back in, it will take a lot more effort to reach those people, and a lot more effort to convince them once they have been reached.