DEFCON 1 said:
But now what happens if you find out that dragonborn actually DO have sufficient broad-based appeal? That they deserve to be in the next first PH (moreso than saying halflings)? Are you now going to accept them as a part of the next D&D experience?
Why the nine hells would they do that?
If the idea is to publish an expandable skeleton in the first PH, the easiest way to do that is probably to say: "There are four classes (fighter, mage, thief, cleric). There is one race (humans). This is the basic D&D skeleton. Here are some options: Halflings. Elves. Dwarves. Here are some more options: Druids. Rangers. Paladins. Here are some additional options: Dragonborn. Warlocks. Ninjas. Shadar-kai."
Now, that could change -- they could do ONE class, or they could do, like 3-5 races, too. Options that say: "These are turned on, but here's what happens if you turn them off."
Adding additional races and classes seems like an easy peasy dial to turn, one that we've been turning since OD&D, one that they can safely set to a low value, and let us turn it up, swap it around, or change its layout for our own campaigns.
I don't know why they'd risk alienating folks all over again by saying "DRAGONBORN ARE NOW FOR EVERYONE."
I mean, I know they did that in 4e, but still...
Where I think the dial is going to be iffy is stuff like, "how do we define 'fighter,' or 'halfling,'" since there are multiple competing mutually exclusive definitions, and people don't want to use things that aren't going to meet their definitions.
If MY halflings are tolkeinesque hobbits with doughty stamina and pipeweed, and YOUR halflings are dreadlocked kender-lite river-rats who skulk in shadows and kill those bigger then them with stabbity sneak attacking death, that's not really a "dial" as it is a completely different concept of what the thing is. If MY fighters are defender-role melee machines with marks and powers, and YOUR fighters are just guys who know how to use a lot of weapons and armor and have a pretty good attack bonus, it's hard to provide one "fighter" that fits both of our preferences.
And by presenting one first, you're weakening the other one by default. If the simplest fighter shows up in the first PH, and the more complex fighter only comes in the
Martial Power supplement three months later, even if you like the more complex one better, it's kind of demoted by the nature of not being the "default."
I don't think any of this is insurmountable (subraces! subclasses! OGL!) but I do think that's where they're going to have the biggest problems -- when two or more mutually exclusive definitions are going head-to-head for the same namespace. Because everyone always thinks their version of "elf" is the best, and if you provide anything else as the default version of "elf," it's a controversy.