D&D (2024) Does anyone else think that 1D&D will create a significant divide in the community?

[GMforPowergamers]

Except we heard people say that before 5e

the numbers that have popped up in the last 5 years is a bubble that we have not seen (maybe in the 80s) so no matter what anyone said before the bubble doesn't apply to the bubble itself.

 

[Mistwell]

the numbers that have popped up in the last 5 years is a bubble that we have not seen (maybe in the 80s) so no matter what anyone said before the bubble doesn't apply to the bubble itself.

It's only a bubble if it's not a new cultural norm. I see zero evidence of bubble-like behavior. It's already a decade and bubbles usually don't last an entire decade. You predicted another 5 years - 15 years isn't a bubble, it's a new normal. Once an entire generation grows up with something, it gets more difficult for it to suddenly drop.

 

[GMforPowergamers]

It's only a bubble if it's not a new cultural norm. I see zero evidence of bubble-like behavior. It's already a decade and bubbles usually don't last an entire decade. You predicted another 5 years - 15 years isn't a bubble, it's a new normal. Once an entire generation grows up with something, it gets more difficult for it to suddenly drop.

I argue the entire 10 years of 5e isn't the growth we have seen in the last 5 years... and yes 5 years can be a bubble, even 10. sooner or later the burst comes

 

[Mistwell]

I argue the entire 10 years of 5e isn't the growth we have seen in the last 5 years... and yes 5 years can be a bubble, even 10. sooner or later the burst comes

Except when it doesn't.

There hasn't been a burst for Euro board games. It blew onto the scene, continued to grow, eventually levelled off but still remains extremely high, and no sign of any reduction. It's the new normal, and there will be no "sooner or later the burst comes" for Euro board games. It's just that industry now.

 

[JiffyPopTart]

Except when it doesn't.

There hasn't been a burst for Euro board games. It blew onto the scene, continued to grow, eventually levelled off but still remains extremely high, and no sign of any reduction. It's the new normal, and there will be no "sooner or later the burst comes" for Euro board games. It's just that industry now.

I have a different view on where boardgames are vis a vis a bubble.

We have entered the age where all of the damage COVID did to the industry (by way of higher costs for shipping mostly) is finally starting to arrive.

There have been many crowdfunded projects not deliver because of dried up funds (Fief France is one that hit me this way) and now we are seeing some companies with fairly successful games begin to fold as a result.

The free-for-all that was Kickstarter has lost its golden age as most gamers are now being more choosy with their funds. Sometimes because the high cost of shipping makes retail a better option or other times because the company is long overdue on old projects with unhappy backers.

I don't think hobby boardgaming is a bubble ready to pop, but I do think it's a graph that's trending downwards to a lower "normal" until the world gets in a more stable economic state.

I contrast this with what I believe is a greater bubble possibility for DnD. One huge component of it's rise in popularity is Critical Role, and should CR and DnD part ways (say to a more modern narrative system) I think they would bring a sizable number of 5e players with them.

 

[GMforPowergamers]

Except when it doesn't.

There hasn't been a burst for Euro board games. It blew onto the scene, continued to grow, eventually levelled off but still remains extremely high, and no sign of any reduction. It's the new normal, and there will be no "sooner or later the burst comes" for Euro board games. It's just that industry now.

now show your work on what the diffrence and similarities are and why you think this has more incommon with that then the boom bust cycle here in US?

 

[GMforPowergamers]

I don't think hobby boardgaming is a bubble ready to pop, but I do think it's a graph that's trending downwards to a lower "normal" until the world gets in a more stable economic state.

I contrast this with what I believe is a greater bubble possibility for DnD. One huge component of it's rise in popularity is Critical Role, and should CR and DnD part ways (say to a more modern narrative system) I think they would bring a sizable number of 5e players with them.

the trick is that the bubble only stays as long as the profit is growing... even a year of the same profit as the year before (aka still a huge profit) is a failure for the company... as such it will require a reshuffle of resources to make more the following year... but often (not always) that reshuffle makes them LOSE money and the spiral down.

 

[Mistwell]

now show your work on what the diffrence and similarities are and why you think this has more incommon with that then the boom bust cycle here in US?

Naw, you show your work on how everything that trends upward for a decade always bursts and is a bubble. It was your claim, I gave you a counter example, so don't do that sealion thing.

 

[Mistwell]

I have a different view on where boardgames are vis a vis a bubble.

We have entered the age where all of the damage COVID did to the industry (by way of higher costs for shipping mostly) is finally starting to arrive.

There have been many crowdfunded projects not deliver because of dried up funds (Fief France is one that hit me this way) and now we are seeing some companies with fairly successful games begin to fold as a result.

The free-for-all that was Kickstarter has lost its golden age as most gamers are now being more choosy with their funds. Sometimes because the high cost of shipping makes retail a better option or other times because the company is long overdue on old projects with unhappy backers.

I don't think hobby boardgaming is a bubble ready to pop, but I do think it's a graph that's trending downwards to a lower "normal" until the world gets in a more stable economic state.

I contrast this with what I believe is a greater bubble possibility for DnD. One huge component of it's rise in popularity is Critical Role, and should CR and DnD part ways (say to a more modern narrative system) I think they would bring a sizable number of 5e players with them.

Kickstarter isn't Eurogames. While some Kickstarters were fore Eurogame-like games, they're nothing close to being the same thing.

 

[Micah Sweet]

Naw, you show your work on how everything that trends upward for a decade always bursts and is a bubble. It was your claim, I gave you a counter example, so don't do that sealion thing.

The law of entropy?