Maxperson
Morkus from Orkus
No. If each has a 50/50 chance of dropping, the odds of all 4 dropping are slim. I think the 6% number we were given is accurate.Wouldn't it be 50%. Half the time you make it, half the time you don't. On average 2 PCs (out of 4) should go down. But there is a good chance you all do. Actually, I think it is more like a 25% chance of a TPK no that I think about it. However, it has been a long time since I've done anything with probabilities.
Edit: Yeah. The probability of 4 heads in a row when flipping a coin is 1 in 16. So it's just under 6%.