"I doubt they have managed to completely close off the keep yet. I suspect that getting this family, and anyone we come across, into the keep to be the best chance anyone has. It might be safer to flee now, but then they will be scattered and left with nothing. Heading to the keep may be riskier now, but will get everyone together behind solid walls with resources to fight back." after a brief pause he adds, "Unless we find a better rally point first."