Edition Cycles and declining sales

[Mercurius]

Looking at this poll we can see why new editions are a financial must at some point. Look at the declining percentages in the series books:

PHB1 - 98% -> PHB2 - 73% -> PHB3 - 59%
MM1 - 94% -> MM2 - 60% -> 48%
DMG1 - 93% -> DMG2 - 56%
AV1 - 67% -> AV2 - 35%
MP1 - 61% -> MP2 - 37%

Given that ENWorld as a demographic is deep into the serious-to-hardcore side of the spectrum with very few (if any) casual gamers posting, I think we can still assume that these percentages are roughly representative of total sales, at least relative to each other within a series (in other words, Adventurer's Vault 2 probably sold about half of the amount that AV1 did). The question is, given that later books almost always sell less, how does Wizards of the Coast survive? What other types of products are as front-loaded as this?

This is not to say that one should expect to keep on selling books at the pace of the original core three, but that if each book within a series has decreasing sales, how do they compensate to stay profitable? Is this "reverse sales creep" the primary reason for the supposed annual WotC layoffs? Is it just expected that each edition will be a downward spiral in sales until it gets to the point that they must come out with a new edition?

It probably goes without saying that the WotC/Hasbro business planning department has "new edition" penciled in at a relatively specific time, likely based upon the point at which the downward spiral of sales is deemed unsustainable. But it has to be a sweet spot: not too soon (so that you piss your fanbase off enough that they won't actually buy the new edition) and not too late (so that you enter financial trouble). In this regard one could argue that 4ed was a tad too soon (although not overly so in that it still sold well) and 3ed was way too late (TSR being bought out a few years before).

Is there a way out of this madness? Has there been a historical instance of a major RPG company coming out with a product line mid-edition that boosted sales substantially?

Just musing here.

 

[maddman75]

I think the 'limited runs' are a pretty solid strategy. Both WotC and White Wolf are doing this. WotC is releasing their settings, followed by a suppliment and adventure, IIRC. White Wolf has their three main lines, but then once a year releases a new line that gets two books, then they're done. Well, except Changeling, that got more books because everyone freakin loved it so much.

I think that gets part of the 'new edition' excitement, while not revamping the whole line. Since two of the big boys are doing it, and continuing to do it, I hope its working out for them.

 

[Mark]

(. . .) new editions are a financial must (. . .)

Unless one is content to stand pat with some IP and move on to producing another (perhaps non-competing) system or brand. Corporations, however, have pesky people with a stake in seeing the renewal of successful properties at regular intervals.

Has there been a historical instance of a major RPG company coming out with a product line mid-edition that boosted sales substantially?

3.5E

 

[rjdafoe]

Is there a way out of this madness? Has there been a historical instance of a major RPG company coming out with a product line mid-edition that boosted sales substantially?

Just musing here.

I think that the way out is what WotC is trying - DDI. It smooths out the revenue stream - especially if a significant number of people pay monthly instead of yearly.

It also garantees that subscribers will pay for (cost wise) about 3 books a year (if we assume that Amazon prices are near what WotC wants to make per book).

 

[ggroy]

There's also the wildcard of DDI subscriptions in the mix this time around.

If it is relatively successful in bringing in revenue to compensate for declining subsequent book sales, then 4E in principle could be kept around slightly longer.

In terms of future 4E splatbooks, one could imagine possibly seeing the books:

- a PHB4 and maybe a PHB5 which could cover the shadow and elemental power classes, along with shadow power 1 and elemental power 1
- psionics power 1
- shadowfell
- feywild

- second iteration of power books
- dungeon delve 2
- AV 3
- deities and demigods, faiths and pantheons
- more monster books (ie. MM4, MM5, draconomicons, demonomicons, etc ...)
- more races books (short 32 pages)

Such titles could in principle fill the lineup of 4E releases for 2011. Whether WotC will continue on with further iterations of already existing titles, will remain to be seen.

The end of the game's lifecycle is probably when a 4E "rules compendium" book is released.

 

[delericho]

This is not to say that one should expect to keep on selling books at the pace of the original core three, but that if each book within a series has decreasing sales, how do they compensate to stay profitable? Is this "reverse sales creep" the primary reason for the supposed annual WotC layoffs? Is it just expected that each edition will be a downward spiral in sales until it gets to the point that they must come out with a new edition?

Yes, new editions are a financial necessity. On the plus side, beyond a certain point they're good for the game, too.

As time went on, 2nd Edition became utterly broken by splatbook after splatbook. TSR tried to clear up the mess with the "Player's Option" material, but this proved to be just as broken, albeit in different ways. Worse, it was almost completely incompatible with what had gone before.

As time went on, 3e became more and more complex. Furthermore, the presence of so many Prestige Classes, races, feats, and so forth gave rise to a bunch of "super-builds" that ruled over everything else.

As time goes on, 4e will suffer from much the same sort of bloat. Given the "exception based design", I predict that the thing that will eventually cause problems is "duelling exceptions" - Player #1 has some power that works a given way, Player #2 has some power that works a different way, the two are mutually-exclusive, and there is no way to determine precedence. (I may well be wrong about this, but I am 100% certain that there will be some sort of a major problem creep in).

So, beyond a certain point, a new edition is a good thing, not just because WotC gets to sell us all the same books again, but because in doing so they can sweep away a lot of the mis-steps of the past decade, and fix a lot of the problems that have been found.

(The alternative is instead to publish a 'complete' game across a number of books, and then stop. This eliminates the bloat entirely, but is also a disasterous business plan.)

Is there a way out of this madness?

Not really. However, the new edition can be delayed, especially if they can hit on some product that people really want to get and that requires a regular buy-in.

Paizo have done this, to a large extent, with their "subscriptions model" - a huge number of their customers are essentially signed up to buy everything, or at least everything in a given line. This allows them to accurately predict how sales are going, and should help slow the rot.

WotC managed it for a good while with the D&D Miniatures. The problem here is that the minis don't degrade in value, and you only need a certain number. If they produce Goblin figures, then they'll sell a bunch at first, but then everyone will have Goblins so they'll stop buying. If they produce Elemental Ooze-Drakes, then it's likely that nobody will already have them... but it's also very likely that very few people will really want them (most people will just substitute some other figure).

However, WotC may have hit on just the thing with the DDI. It seems to have enough value that (enough) people do want it, it requires a monthly buy-in... it's all good.

(If I were WotC, what would worry me at this point is the possibility of a shift in tastes amongst gamers. At the moment, lots of people seem quite happy to play 4e using the RAW, or with only minimal changes. The DDI copes with that very well. But if tastes move back towards a much more customised game, as was the case during much of the 1st/2nd Edition era, then the DDI becomes much less valuable.)

 

[Scribble]

How often do we see a new edition of Magic?

I'm not sure we'll see a new edition of the game quite as quickly as we saw 4e appear after 3e, based on the way the game is designed.

This time around they seem to have understood that they both want the game to be expandable (New powers yay!!!) but they also don't want the expansions to wreak havoc on the system itself.

The "Powers" model works great for this, because while they add tons of new options for the players that choose them, they very rarely mess with the base underlying system.

 

[MrMyth]

Looking at this poll we can see why new editions are a financial must at some point. Look at the declining percentages in the series books:

PHB1 - 98% -> PHB2 - 73% -> PHB3 - 59%
MM1 - 94% -> MM2 - 60% -> 48%
DMG1 - 93% -> DMG2 - 56%
AV1 - 67% -> AV2 - 35%
MP1 - 61% -> MP2 - 37%

Given that ENWorld as a demographic is deep into the serious-to-hardcore side of the spectrum with very few (if any) casual gamers posting, I think we can still assume that these percentages are roughly representative of total sales, at least relative to each other within a series (in other words, Adventurer's Vault 2 probably sold about half of the amount that AV1 did). The question is, given that later books almost always sell less, how does Wizards of the Coast survive? What other types of products are as front-loaded as this?

I'm not so sure the conclusions are as easy to draw as the raw numbers above might make them appear. The PHB3 and MM3 numbers, notably, are for books not even yet released, so I would not be surprised if they end up on par with the PHB2 and MM2 - less than the PHB1 and MM1, but that is to be expected. If the yearly releases of the core book series are sustainable, that could make a big difference.

Similarly, I'm not going to expect MP2 to match MP1. The real test is whether things like Primal Power 1 hold up alongside Martial Power 1. And the answer is no, Martial Power did sell more than Arcane Power which sold more than Divine Power which sold more than Primal Power.

Of course, that was also the order the books were released it, so the numbers could simply be proportional to how long the books were on the market.

I don't know how sustainable the power books are within the series - but then, I never expected Martial Power 2 to even exist. And of course, it doesn't, yet - the numbers could be a lot closer once it actually releases, and people have a good sense of what is in it and what they might want out of it. That argument doesn't hold for AV1 and AV2, of course - but general opinion is that AV2 just didn't have as much to offer as AV1.

So maybe that is the lesson for WotC - continuing each series isn't an inherently bad thing, as long as they can actually keep up the quality of each book, and ensure it has something new to create interest. AV2 was an interesting failure in this regard, since it did experiment with several new elements - lair items, set items, new consumables, and more story elements. Many of those items, unfortunately, not all that useful for most games, and the book as a whole feeling far thinner on content because of it.

I'm not entirely sure what conclusion of my own I'm trying to draw. I think that only so much can be learned from a poll like this, though the numbers can be interesting to look at. I do certainly think that the D&D model is never going to be infinitely sustainable - it just becomes a question of how long it can be sustained. And I think a drop from MP1 to MP2 is a lot less relevant than the difference between Martial Power 1 and Psionic Power 1, for example - or how close the numbers are between PHB2 and PHB3.

Which, honestly, looks pretty close to me, given the timeframe involved. In the end, though, the numbers won't tell us much for another year or two, and that's when we'll really be able to know more.

 

[AllisterH]

As one of those people that might NOT pick up the PHB 3, I'll explain my reasoning.

As ggroy pointed out, DDI kind of nullifies the need for me to buy it. The PHB contains the actual rules to run the game along with the DMG, but PHB3?

What exactly is going to be in there that isn't going to be in the character builder?

 

[Drkfathr1]

What happens when WOTC does do a 5E, and everything in the DDI vanishes? Those who only subscribe and don't buy the books...what happens when the 4E material is no longer there?

Didn't Rouse bascially beg folks to keep buying the books?