Edition Cycles and declining sales

[hailstop]

What happens when WOTC does do a 5E, and everything in the DDI vanishes? Those who only subscribe and don't buy the books...what happens when the 4E material is no longer there?

Didn't Rouse bascially beg folks to keep buying the books?

The Compendium would be a problem, but the Character Builder and Monster Builder would still be there.

WotC is going to see something similar happen now with DDI that Commodore had happen with the 64 -> 128 transition. There will be all this material available through the DDI that there will be an immense resistance to drop all of that content, let alone the convenience, for something that is significantly different than 4e.

Which makes me think that 5e, when it comes, won't be much different than 4e.

 

[rjdafoe]

Ah, I see. I don't subscribe so I wasn't aware it was a download you got to keep. I guess as long as you keep it backed up you'll have it forever.

I understand. I am not a big fan of having to connect to WotC to install the program. I would much preferr something else like license keys or whatever. It is not like their model has stopped "those versions" of the program from happening and more than a license key.

 

[amerigoV]

In this regard one could argue that 4ed was a tad too soon (although not overly so in that it still sold well)

Hmmm, were you eagerly awaiting the Complete Commoner and Plantonomican under 3.5? A bit of tongue in cheek of course, but I think from a material prospect they were about tapped out (heck, Eberron probably delayed the need for 4e for a time). Otherwise, I am not sure what else they could publish that was truly 3.5 that would sell.

Now, they did piss off a number of people with the new edition, but that was due to how they rolled out 4e and some of their design decisions.

 

[rjdafoe]

I'm skeptical of the "smoother" revenue stream. DDI is just a subscription. Dungeon and Dragon magazines, in print, were not a mainstay of revnue even back in the day. I play a MMO, and I know I let my account lapse, only to renew it later when I get the itch. The less shiny and new 4e is, the less a subscription model is going to look like an answer to eclining sales.

It is smoother. The more people that pay on a month to month basis, the more revenue on a month to month basis. As it includes the books, they will have less significant downs and ups in their revenue chart.

 

[ggroy]

It is smoother. The more people that pay on a month to month basis, the more revenue on a month to month basis. As it includes the books, they will have less significant downs and ups in their revenue chart.

If revenue from books and DDI both go down simultaneously, they have a problem on their hands.

 

[Scribble]

If revenue from books and DDI both go down simultaneously, they have a problem on their hands.

Well yeah... I mean the DDI isn't a magic money from nowhere machine.

The point I think people are trying to make is that since digital content has less post production costs associated (it's not free to produce or maintain) with it, it can whether dips in the market much more then physical books can.

Plus, since it's "all or nothing" they don't have to hope EVERY release is on the mark. It doesn't really matter if I'm not a huge enough fan of X splat to buy it... I've already paid my subscription fees.

In addition since it's money first- unlike print products, they don't have to worry about spending the money and then hoping they can recoup all their costs. So my guess is they're sending much less physical books to the market then they would have in the past. (But I don't know for sure.)

 

[BryonD]

Given that ENWorld as a demographic is deep into the serious-to-hardcore side of the spectrum with very few (if any) casual gamers posting, I think we can still assume that these percentages are roughly representative of total sales, at least relative to each other within a series .

People who have started playing post 4E release very likely went back and bought the initial core. But players who bought the initial core but since moved on, including not being active here, are not represented.

 

[ggroy]

People who have started playing post 4E release very likely went back and bought the initial core. But players who bought the initial core but since moved on, including not being active here, are not represented.

Of the first group I played 4E D&D with starting back in June/July 2008, two of the players left gaming altogether while another two went back to 3.5E (or Pathfinder). Only one is still playing 4E in my present game. (This particular group went through "Keep on the Shadowfell" over the summer of 2008).

The two players that left gaming altogether, were casual players who wanted to check out the "new shiny" game at the time. Neither bought any 4E books. (Not even the PHB1). As far as I know, the two players that went back to 3.5E/Pathfinder, only bought the core books and nothing else. Don't know if they already sold their 4E books.

 

[Jan van Leyden]

I told you: I actually think that the publishing model of 4e, with printed stuff as well as a subscription model, is valid for a period of transfer only.

What do you mean by "period of transfer" in this context?

I meant a period of transfer between the old publishing model (printed books only) and the new model we can so lovingly speculate about.

There's other options, such as making 5E into a hybrid rpg/boardgame similar to 3E WFRP.

So we have different parties changing the publishing models in different ways:

Paizo tries to bind its customers with subscriptions, offering a substantial discount if you decide to go this way.

FFG tries to give you more "stuff", with lots of physical components appealing to the toy lovers.

WotC tries to change from a (book) publisher to a service provider, reducing the amount of physical components and offering computer support.

Paizo's model seems to be the most conservative one, and easy to get used to for existing roleplayers.

FFG's model probably spells a short lifetime of any edition. The high production costs of such games meaning that the foreseeable decline in number of sales for supporting products will bring the "refreshing" new edition marketing rather early.

WotC's model? Frankly, I don't know. I'm rather sure that WotC did some research before going this way, so they should data supporting their decision. If everything works out according to their plan, we'll see 5e as a further step. If the numbers are not reached, we can look forward to some interesting changes...

 

[Dice4Hire]

Given that ENWorld as a demographic is deep into the serious-to-hardcore side of the spectrum with very few (if any) casual gamers posting, I think we can still assume that these percentages are roughly representative of total sales, at least relative to each other within a series (in other words, Adventurer's Vault 2 probably sold about half of the amount that AV1 did). The question is, given that later books almost always sell less, how does Wizards of the Coast survive? What other types of products are as front-loaded as this?

You are basing a lot on an optional poll on a single website that many people either missed, ignored, or otherwise did not take part in.

But looking at the assumptions above, I think it is obvious that the first set of core rulebooks of a system will sell more. After all, without them, how do you play the system? I think it is better to look at the second or third books in the series to know how things are doing, but that is impossible, as the 3rd interation are not even out yet. I don't think I am wrong to say that most 4E gamers thought of AVI as a core book, to add enough magical items to make the game more interesting, so it should have sold well.

In the summer of 2009, we can come back here with some better info to discuss this, after the 3 series and the 2 series of books like Martial power are out. Then I think we can make some assumptions, but it is too soon now.