AbdulAlhazred
Legend
3.5x was a HOT MESS. The problem with continuing with that game is, simply put, there are 1000 ways for a 3.x game to mechanically go to heck. By 2006 it was a hodge-podge of rules. It was super complex, really hard to build characters, and filled with lots of dead useless classes, PrCs, races, garbage feats, etc. It is very hard to develop good material for 3.x!Pathfinder was publicly released for sale in August 2009, over a year after 4e came out. It was announced publicly on March 18, 2008, when 4e had already been announced and it was already clear that 4e would be a total break from the 3.x design lineage. It's success was as an alternative to 4e that was being sold in stores. The open public beta was released at Gen Con 2008, after the June 2008 release of 4e. It's success was as a competitor to 4e, not 3e.
Yeah, sales started to slump for 3.5 late in its run, but I think that's because WotC got into a rut with what they were making, not due to an inherent fault or obsolescence of the edition. They wanted a fast-moving stream of new hardcover books, crunch-heavy, mostly setting-agnostic, and a lot of players had all the "crunch" they'd need. The only setting-specific stuff they were doing was Forgotten Realms, and that tended to focus on stuff in the current era of Faerun, not in other times (like the Netherese era) or other parts of Toril (like Kara Tur, Maztica, or Zakhara. . .much less Osse or Katashaka, those continents have NEVER been explored in any official work)
I remember the snow and sand sourcebooks and thinking that I didn't need an entire sourcebook on that, that there was enough guidance on the subject in the core rules for any desert or arctic adventures I'd need to run. I remember posting once in that era here that I had enough D&D books to last a lifetime, at least in regards to "crunch". WotC could have leveraged their other D&D IP's for things that 3rd party publishers couldn't compete with and didn't feel redundant to existing works.
There were other directions they could have taken. Paizo had been saying for years that their annual "Campaign Classics" edition of Dragon was their most popular. They could have had limited-run revivals of Planescape, Spelljammer, Birthright, Al Qadim, Kara Tur, Maztica, Mystara (and its various sub-settings like the Hollow World or the Savage Coast) or Dark Sun. They could have had a 3e version of 2e's "Historic Reference" series about playing D&D in low-magic quasi-historic settings. After they had to cancel d20 Modern because of Hasbro's rules about "brands", they could have tried a remake of Urban Arcana from that rebranded as a D&D branded urban fantasy setting.
They could have pursued licenses to make D&D adaptations of existing fantasy novel series.
They could have done an actual Greyhawk line, and an actual Greyhawk setting book (there hasn't been an actual Greyhawk campaign setting book since 1e, just random supplements set in that setting!)
They had a lot of options if they wanted to pivot from generic crunch-heavy hardbacks while keeping the generally popular 3.x rules framework.
Beyond that, WotC/Hasbro had come to conclude that, from a product design perspective, 3.x was poor. They were looking at CCGs, and Euro-games, as well as some more modern RPGs, and concluding that, since 3.5 was a mess, not a great design, and tapped out for sales, that a new edition, built to current product design standards, and with high playability, easy expansion, and an easy path to being incorporated as digital content, would serve them well. This is all fairly well established and was discussed by WotC themselves during 4e and at the end of 4e. I am not going to try to track down articles that may not even exist anymore, but the Euro-game design aesthetic was heavily stressed. This is why they, for example, laid out monsters with stat blocks.
And it worked! The game has a different, modern, feel. It is VERY easy to generate new content for, classes, powers, feats, races. Each new thing seems to work well, has a good power level, and doesn't break other existing material. DDI worked, although the VTT was a bit of a bridge too far.
None of this could have happened by sticking to 3.5e. Furthermore, WotC market research told them that 3.x D&D was kind of imploding. Over time less and less new people came into the game. The rules were seen as dense and obtuse, only really understandable by expert players. They did not believe they could grow the game on top of 3.5, and any light touch update wouldn't fix these problems.