Baldur's Gate
Here's what I'm thinking for Baldur's Gate:
I've discovered that you can see the "official" results for the various Sundering adventures via the old D&D Sundering Facebook app. The results for Murder in Baldur's Gate that are of most interest to me are:
1) Duke Torlin Silvershield narrowly beat out Ravengard to became the Chosen of Bhaal (with one of the PCs coming a close third).
2) Silvershield's gunpowder plot overwhelmingly came to an "explosive conclusion".
3) Silvershield's reinstatement of the old duelling laws was not opposed.
4) While the Upper City curfew was overturned, the taxation of luxury goods was not.
Also, Duke Adrian beat out his half-brother Viekang to become the Bhaalspawn Slayer in the opening encounter.
Anyway, so I'm going to run with the above results. So Silvershield pulled off his gunpowder plot, blowing up the Parliament of Peers and half of High Hall. I'm also going to say that his plan worked, so the new Parliament of Peers is pretty much free of Guild influence, and even the kingpins in the Lower City are suffering a bit as a result. The Guild is not as powerful as it once was, but perhaps they've now become a little more violent in response.
The old duelling laws that he got reinstated are still in force, although I'll say that things have settled down a little bit. The Watch, in particular, has been reigned in, so mostly you just get patriars settling grievances this way.
With one of the PCs in my game a member of a minor patriar family, I have some ideas up my sleeve. I'm going to say that her father was one of the peers killed in the explosion. When the PCs arrive in Baldur's Gate, the patriar PC's mother will insist that she go and "pay her respects" to her father, who - as a lesser patriar - was buried in the family crypt in the cemetery out in Tumbledown. When the PCs get there, they'll find that some of the cemetery's permanent residents have recently grown a bit restless. Due to the still-simmering turmoil in the city, no one really wants to do anything about it.
Here's where I'm going to run DDEX1-4 "Dues for the Dead"* - with a few minor changes. In particular, I need to come up with a different reason for the Red Wizard being there (as in the actual adventure, since it's set in Phlan, the wizard has been sent there by Rath Modar to find one of the old Pools of Radiance). Perhaps he's just there to cause trouble. Anyway, I'll have some clues that he's actually involved with the Cult of the Dragon, as a way of foreshadowing the Red Wizards' involvement.
Once the PCs have dealt with the undead, they'll be free to go and visit the patriar PC's father's crypt, where his spirit will appear and inform her that he's been watching her and wishes to aid her in her quest. He'll then go and "possess" her heirloom greataxe, transforming it into a magical sentient weapon.
I also found a neat idea on a PbP game where Selebon talks to the PCs about having had a mysterious female in a palanquin place a large order for wagons and such from him. That should be a good clue that Rezmir has been.
My only real issue at this point is that I'm not sure any of the cultists in the caravan will be able to recognize the PCs. Mainly because in Episode 2, they did a preliminary scout of the camp from the ridge above and then waited until nightfall before sending the rogue in by himself to free Leosin. No one spotted him and they made a clean getaway. They killed all the stragglers and avoided the rearguard as well. However, Mondath escaped from the dragon hatchery in Episode 3. She got a good look at them all too, so if I were to have her catch up with Rezmir, she could give a fairly good description of them all.
The elf, dwarf, and human could disguise themselves and, especially if they split up when they join the caravan, avoid notice fairly easily, but the goliath is going to stick out like a sore thumb. Maybe I should just have him be the one who gets recognized without bothering with Charisma checks.
Thoughts?
*I've also considered running DDEX2-10 "Cloaks and Shadows", as that's a nice urban intrigue adventure with the PCs finding themselves framed for murder and having to track down the real cult assassin in order to clear their names, but I'm not sure. I think it would require a lot of work to move it out of Mulmaster and put it in Baldur's Gate, especially because of all the contextual handouts and things. I might leave it for an interlude in Waterdeep, which would give me more time to redo the specifics.