Hard?
Assuming Bless, that's 55% Rogue damage + 40% Fighter damage (assuming CA every round too) + 35% Wizard damage + 15% Cleric damage + 25% Ranger damage per round. And, many other bonuses by powers to attack rolls are power bonuses, so they will not stack with Bless.
yep hard fight close to twice the average round of combat (average is 10 this should take about 15-20) by the way most of those power bonuses that wont stack with Bless give more then +1 so it is +1 whole fight (equal to expertise) and +X-1 to the attacks that the other benefits come up. Funny how you dismiss out of hand a bonus equal to this feat…
If each Striker PC averages 30 points of damage on a successful hit (successful round in the case of the Ranger) and each non-Striker PC averages 20 points of damage on a successful hit, that's in the ballpark of 42 points of damage per round or 18 rounds to defeat the Red Dragon. Maybe a few less due to Action Points and sustainable Dailies, but probably more due to the PCs having to fall back on At Will powers after 8 rounds or so where their damage drops considerably (it depends on whether they have daily items that are offensive and how many of those they can use).
Ok what about auto damage powers and minor action stuff, or heck how about non damage powers...by the way i think your avrg is low for a 11th level party (I know the op board says fighter at wills average 50+ damage in paragon I assume strikers can at least come close to that) but even so ok...
Even averaging more damage per successful hit will only drop it a few rounds at most. And of course, most parties will not have +3 weapons for every party member at level 11 (it's possible, but unlikely unless the DM hands out magic weapons with no special attributes, or always hands out magic weapons first).
well I figured if you made an 11th level part and got level+1 level and level -1...if you have PCs grown organically there is no way to guess...so I went expected… the treasure packets give level +X items though where (I believe) +4 is doable, so you start getting +3 weapon/implements at level 7…
That's a pretty long encounter. And, it assumes that none of the PCs are stunned by Frightful Presence, none of the PCs go unconscious, and the Dragon just dukes it out on the ground with the PCs instead of grabbing the Cleric or Wizard, killing him in the air or dropping him or doing Flyby attacks, etc. All of these extend the encounter which gives an advantage to the Dragon.
wait so the hardest fight you can fight at your level is hard enough that it is TPK possible, and at the same time still possible to win...seams like as intended to me...Again what do you expect the HARDEST fair encounter should be??
The Dragon also has reach and hover. It can hover above the group and attack at will without being attacked back as hard by melee foes (shy of a Ready action or throwing inferior weapons maybe). For the most part, it can ignore the Fighter's mark and its breath weapon will hit most of the PCs in the area a high percentage of the time on an average of 8+ rounds (1 first round, 1 bloodied, and 1 round in 3 recharge).
Inless the rogue or wizard uses a power that knock it prone, or daze it...every time I have tried such a tactic as hover/invulnerable the PCs have found a way to bring the fight back tot eh ground... Walking wounded is the one I get hit with the most, although an eladrin rouge once used topel over (melee only) by fey steping up to use it…
All in all, if the DM runs this Dragon intelligently, agressively, and three dimensionally, it should win this battle most of the time due to attrition and forcing the melee PCs to sit around watching or using inferior ranged attacks (like thrown daggers or a crossbow without sneak attack damage or thrown javelins).
see there is the problem you assume the DM/Dragon be played to the hilt, but the PCs are on bot mode...How many powers knock prone...I went to the compendium
Wizard: 9 (I bet all of these are range)
Rouge: 4 (I know at least 1 is ranged
Ranger 2 (I assume at least 1 is ranged)
Cleric 2 (I know at least command is ranged)
Fighter 7 (I assume most are melee only if not all)
so it is not unrealistic to assume atleast 1 PC can... and remember once you get it down the fighter can mark it, and it is stuck…opp attacks hit MORE often, and stop move
next lets do stun shall we…
If the Rogue cannot often Sneak Attack, one of the two main damage dealers is out of the picture.
why can't he again?
Even with the tail attack, there is no reason for the Dragon to fight on the ground and give Combat Advantage to the Rogue and the Fighter. Without that, the damage per round drops to about 33 points per round and that alone ups the encounter by as much as 5 more rounds (depending on how often the Rogue and Fighter can still get CA).
There are ways other then flanking if that is your only metric...
If played smart, this is beyond just a hard encounter. IMO.
If the players play smart it is an average encounter...especially if they knew it was coming and held an action point...
Infact I think the one thing we can both agree on is in ANY fair fight if one side is played as dumb, and the other is played tactically then the smart side has a way easier time of it… Dumb dragon = easier fight…Smart Dragon= Harder fight…Dumb player=TPK… smart player= more of a chance…
Btw, free Weapon Expertise increases the average damage per round from 42 to about 48, lowering it from 18+ rounds to 16+. Not a huge gain, but some.
so why give it for free when PCs can choose to take it...
Just to give you an idea of what happens when this is all said and done, remember that the HARDEST soldier (Highest def) you could throw at the party is still beatable (all be it with luck and skill) how ever all that proves is how awesome the design of 4e is…
By the way notice none of them have paragon paths…if the rouge is criting on 18+, And the fighter gets another +1 to hit, just those two classes get dpr (man I feel dirty using that metric) increases…
However, the fact that this promised article has not yet come tells me that some people in WotC are not very proud of that feat, for whatever reason...
or that it is being worked on...again look at my post about multi groups of players...WotC has to balance these things.