i'm reading up on WOIN, and i am trying to understand the math behind the system.

I am basing my math on these premises:

**1) A starting grade 5 character with a dice pool of 5d6 will succeed on a Difficult [16] check about half the time.**

**2) Each benchmark represents a roughly 50/50 chance of success for a given dice pool size. Each successive benchmark represents one extra die in the dice pool.**

I am considering using the alternate rules on the SRD, to have a success on 4+ on each die rolled.

However, the probabilities don't match at all, and i don't understand what is supposed to be correct, or if there other considerations that i am missing.

Let's start with

**1)**

A 5d6 roll has a around a 70% chance of success (

**5d6 >= 16**). Is this correct? If so, why was 50% indicated in the manual?

If we move the test higher or lower, as

**2)**says, the more you go "up" the less chance of success you have (for example: 10d6 vs 37, going up by five grades, is supposed to be same chance as 5d6 vs 16.

**However, success is now 39%**) and the more you go "down", the more chance of success you have. Why is this? Is it because of skills that are supposed to fill the gap later in the game?

Also, alternate rolling methods don't seem to work correctly (or i'm missing something).

For example, 5d6 vs 16 (the standard difficult check) should be equal to 3 successes on "4+" rolling method.

However,

**success chance on 5d6 vs 16 is 70%**, and

**3 successes on 5d6**(4+, calculated as [count {4,5,6} in 5d6] >= 3 in anydice)

**is 50%**.

**Shouldn't they be the same?**

This continues as you go lower on the scale, especially if you try harder or lower rolls than the benchmark.

For example,

**a Strenous test with a 5d6 pool has a 3% chance of success in the standard system, but a 19% chance in the 4+ system**, which requires 4 successes?. Shouldn't the 4+ system require 5 succeses instead, for a 3% chance, which is equal to the standard system?

Is there a reason for this? I fear the game balance will be completely changed by changing roll system, while i thought they could be interchangable or at least similar.

Concluding, i am asking:

**1)**is the "Roll 4+" system balanced correctly? Is there a specific reason behind the number of succeses required not matching the default system?

**2)**is the game correctly balanced around the default system? If so, why is 50% indicated in the manual, instead of 70%?

**3)**should i rebalance the "Roll 4+" difficulty numbers to match the default system, or vice versa? Where is the expected balance point of the game?