Dalamar
Adventurer
Let's see, this is going outside of my comfort zone when it comes to mathematics, but I'm pretty sure that the chance to hit exactly one attack out of two equals 100% - (chance to miss both) - (chance to hit both), in which case the following should hold true.So again, if I see a target has heavy armor, I'm going to choose to exchange for damage, and the result is going to be considerably more expected damage than if I had fired at a lightly armored target and chosen not to exchange. The choice isn't tactical mastery, either - it should be, in-character, pretty easy to visually determine whether a target is wearing light or heavy armor, and the choice is obvious after that is determined.
If I have high ground against my target, and I see that they are wearing a kevlar vest, I will shoot at them twice. If I don't have Deadly Strike, my expected total damage for the two attacks is 11,12. If I do have Deadly Strike, the expected total is 14,47.
If I have high ground against my target, and I see that they are wearing a battlesuit, I will shoot twice and exchange two of my attack dice for one damage die. If I don't have Deadly Strike, my expected total damage for the two attacks is 8,35. If I do have Deadly Strike, my expected damage is 11,16, which is actually slightly less than if I had not exchanged and just attacked twice, for a total of 11,21.
So, if I have high ground, I can expect to do 11,12 points of damage against the target in light armor, or 8,35 points of damage against the target in heavy armor. If I have Deadly Strike, the numbers are 14,47 opposed to 11,16 or 11,21. Whether I have Deadly Strike or not, I can expect to do about 3 more damage to the target in light armor, since there is no reason for me to exchange attack for damage against them. It doesn't matter how much more damage without exchanging I do against light armor than I do heavy armor, or how much more I deal to heavy armor than I deal to light armor when I do exchange.