Forked Thread: Changeover poll

[RFisher]

TSR went out of business, true, but, 2e was hardly "dead". It was still being played and played widely. No other RPG (with a possible exception of Vampire for a very brief period of time - a few months possibly) managed to knock D&D off it's top spot.

The real achievement of the later day TSR was that they managed to go out of business with a product and brand that was still very strong.

2e was dead when 3e came along. No one in the game stores were playing 2e.

These things are very hard to know. I moved to a different city a few years after 2e came out. I never thought I’d play 2e or any form of D&D again at the time. I didn’t know anyone who wanted to play D&D either. It stayed that way for several years.

When I reconnected with my old group in my home city—shortly before the 3e release—I discovered they’d been playing 2e the whole time.

Where can we find any reliable data on this stuff?

BryonD is claiming that there is this huge number of disgruntled fans who are not making the switch and will never do so.

In any case, how many gamers are there who aren’t switching simply because they don’t know or care about a new edition? You don’t have to be disgruntled to never switch.

 

[Lanefan]

I have no idea how to answer this poll, or even if I legitimately can, for a few reasons:

1. While I know when I started playing in a 3e game (Feb. 2001) I don't remember when 3e was actually released thus I don't know how many months to mark down.

2. While I played in a 3e game for 7 years until recently leaving it, I never fully "switched" away from 1e; I was either running or playing or both in 1e all the way through and still am today. And I skipped 2e completely, and have no intentions of going to 4e in the foreseeable future.

And, a few observations:

Adventure conversion: From what I can tell, the one 4e adventure I've seen (KotS) seems easily convertible to 3e (my old DM just started running it in 3e) and-or 1e (I intend to do this later).

Community divide: From what I've seen even within our own gaming community of friends and acquaintances (total about 30 people) there is a slowly-widening divide between the 1e camp and the 3e camp that has taken 8 years to develop (the 4e release, and the start of some new 3e games, have crystallized this somewhat). Sure, there's some as likes both, and one or two that like neither, but more and more heels are starting to get dug in. Interesting to see that a similar thing is happening on the larger scale. And while I know several of us have picked up some 4e material, I don't know anyone who is actually planning to switch to 4e from whatever they have now.

Forecast: Despite some people's best attempts, support for 3e *will* wind down, and at or before that point lots of people will switch...to somewhere. Some will go 4e, others will go 0-1-2e or a variant e.g. C+C, others will drift away completely. But unlike some I just don't see the 3e crowd going over to 4e en masse, other than those who will only play the "official" game i.e. RPGA types.

Lanefan

 

[DaveMage]

I have no idea how to answer this poll, or even if I legitimately can, for a few reasons:

1. While I know when I started playing in a 3e game (Feb. 2001) I don't remember when 3e was actually released thus I don't know how many months to mark down.

Summer 2000

And, a few observations:

Forecast: Despite some people's best attempts, support for 3e *will* wind down, and at or before that point lots of people will switch...to somewhere. Some will go 4e, others will go 0-1-2e or a variant e.g. C+C, others will drift away completely. But unlike some I just don't see the 3e crowd going over to 4e en masse, other than those who will only play the "official" game i.e. RPGA types.

Don't forget that things will get really interesting next summer when Paizo releases the final version of Pathfinder - which is essentially a continuation of 3.5 (albeit with a Paizo spin). By then, the "newness" of 4e may have worn off so not only will 3.5 players have a new game to support such a style of play, but those who like "new and shiny" will also have a toy to try out.

 

[BryonD]

The split according to the poll that this thread was forked from is 60:40, with 60% having made the switch.

We're only one month into 4e, so, including that second batch in your numbers is a bit premature. Wait a couple of months and see what happens.

There are no facts that suggest the opposite. SIXTY percent made the switch already. Which is IDENTICAL to the numbers presented here. In two more months, I'll be willing to bet thath the number will be about 70% as well.

What happened to your preditction of a "very small minority".
It seems that, all claims of "facts" aside, you are predetermined to find what you want to see in the results. If a "very small minority" switched right away, then that was going to prove your point. But now that the data is exactly the opposite of you prediction, you claim that THIS proves your point.

This is what I don't get. The numbers are EXACTLY THE SAME. 50-60% making the switch immediately. We won't know for a couple of months about the others, but, I have no idea why there is this huge assumption that it will be so different this time around.

Do you see the contradiction there? If most none converts were simply waiting out some other factor then there would be no "huge assumption". It wouldn't even be a debate. (As is wasn't at this point in 3E)

People are making a tempest in a teacup.

Says the guy who started the thread.

There is no huge divide other than in some people's minds.

Define "huge". Define "some".

There is no "dropping off" yet. Heck, the fact that they've already gone to second printings pretty much points to a decent success.

Yeah tons of people bought the core. Simple fact there.
And a large percentage that I have spoken with we very disappointed once they got it home and read it. A majority? Nope. Significant? Yep.

Not to bad for a game that growing numbers of people hate.

Not growing, just holding steady.

Besides, we also know that 3.5 sold a bigger print run than 3.0. I guess by your standard of proof than means that 3.5 was more popular than 3.0. If you believe that I have a bridge I'd like to sell you. I personally thought 3.5 was a great improvement. But my personal preference doesn't cloud my ability to see that it wasn't universally popular.



Where does quality fit in to you assessment? Where do value judgments come into play. As I see it, you have simply claimed that people will switch this time simply because that it what people do. So it seems they could slap the D&D label on any drek they choose and the same "Why should it be any different this time?" argument would hold the same water.

Are you really suggesting that people who strongly dislike the 4e ruleset or other fundamental elements of the game will just switch to something they don't like?

 

[mmu1]

There are no facts that suggest the opposite. SIXTY percent made the switch already. Which is IDENTICAL to the numbers presented here. In two more months, I'll be willing to bet thath the number will be about 70% as well.

This is what I don't get. The numbers are EXACTLY THE SAME. 50-60% making the switch immediately. We won't know for a couple of months about the others, but, I have no idea why there is this huge assumption that it will be so different this time around.

The numbers are not exactly the same. For one, the polls ask completely different questions. In addition, the numbers are not at all what you misrepresent them as.

The first poll asks basically "Which are you playing more of - 4E or 3E?"

The responses from people who play 4E half of the time or more add up to only 47% of the total - and calling the 8% who have played or are playing 4E but mostly play something else "converts" is wishful thinking.

However, even if you do include them, you only get a 55% conversion rate, for a 55/45 ratio - not 60/40. (which is a huge difference - 55 is 22% more than 45, 60 is 50% more than 40 - it's not 5 insignificant percentage points that can just be rounded off)


The second poll asks how quickly the people who converted to 3E did so - ignoring entirely the people who didn't convert.

Which you did intentionally, because you knew that the number of respondents on ENWorld who'd say they didn't convert to 3E at all and never intend to would be tiny - making the 45% who are turning up their noses at 4E look huge.

Unfortunately, the numbers still make it look like people rushed out and got 3E much faster than 4E (especialy considering the fact it was only the 3E PHB that was released initially, that the rules weren't leaked as PDFs for all to see way in advance of the official release, etc.) - even if your methodology ultimately makes the poll useless for comparison with Edena's original one.

 

[BryonD]

How's 'bout this?

Snort

THAT'S you example. OK. Noted.

Yet, with 4e, apparently, those who haven't made the switch will never do so.

Right back to trying to put absolutes in my mouth eh?

You see this huge population who thinks 4e sucks. I see a small minority of very loud posters who repeat the same mantra in thread after thread.

Define "small".
From my POV, I see the same small minority of 4e myrmidons who keep repeating the same manta in thread after thread. (Gee, it sure is easy to just say things like that)

Seriously, your proclamation that it is a "small minority" is completely trumped by the reality of me interacting with a steady flow of people who feel this way. Unless you are calling 30+% small, which I'd say is getting pretty loose with the language.

 

[lutecius]

The amount of information available may also make a big difference. I wasn’t playing dnd anymore then and didn’t even know about 3e before the release. At the time, I was mostly using the internet for pr0n and only discovered Enworld by chance. I guess fewer gamers had cheap broadband access than today and people would generally spend less time on the net.

In comparison, I’ve been checking 4e scoops and previews almost every day since the announcement and participated in enworld discussions. So I don’t know if I am in the minority here but I had a lot more time to make up my mind this time around. I had actually all but decided not to go 4e before the release. And with the pdf leak, I didn’t even have to borrow the books or browse them at the flgs to be sure.

 

[Wombat]

This is a curious question for me to try to answer...

I played OD&D, the three little tan books ... and never made the switch to "1st ed". I stayed away from D&D until 3e came along, barring a few individual games.

I got the 3e books for Christmas, just after a move, and found that I didn't have a game group. I tried to get groups together for several different systems, but most people didn't feel comfortable with this. When I sighed and put up an ad as a DM (as opposed to GM), I found myself with a waiting-list.

My current game group dropped D&D about a year and a half ago; we had mangled 3e into such a pretzel (thus suiting it to our tastes) that many people claimed we didn't play D&D at all. We were fine with that.

So I guess I fall into the "switch to 3e within 6 months camp", if I am remembering the timeline correctly. And with 4e ... well, let's say we probably won't be playing it any time very soon.

 

[FallenTabris]

I was watching every instance of preview of 3e back in the day with giddy anticipation. I immediately converted my 2nd edition group over to 3e as soon as I had the 3.0 player`s handbook in my hand. And it was great for about 2 years until the creation of npcs and encounters started giving me headaches. That and the one time everybody had basically either made a new character who was spellcasting or multiclassed into sorcerers. I was out before 3.5 reared its head. The people I play with now though had continued to play D&D without me. One of them became the DM for their D&D games while I ran Werewolf:the Apocalypse.

This time around I again watched every instance of 4e getting previewed. And it encouraged me to try D&D again. So I bought the books on a Friday morning.. and was DMing that night from 12am until the sun rose. It was a blast for everybody! Not just the players dreaming of kick ass power potential but for me and how easy it was going to be setting up adventures. Hopefully I won't see the hidden drawbacks that cropped up in 3e: Power/class combos that were above par, byzantine encounter creation or players having frustration they can't do something so simple as grab the monster`s arm without a complex rule association.

 

[JediSoth]

When 3E came out, I was in between gaming groups at the time, but I knew of several separate groups playing 2E, so if I had liked those people enough, would have had no difficulty finding a game to play in.

I decided to switch to 3E during the time Dragon magazine was running the previews, in fact, the previews really had me anticipating the game (plus a guy I worked with was a playtester).

I voted that I switched within the first 3 months because I wasn't prepare to run a game without the DMG and MM, and it took that long to get all the books and put together a new group.

JediSoth