Forked Thread: ... with an interesting note about 4th edition

[I'm A Banana]

I am pretty sure the Rouse or another Wizards employee mentioned a while ago that sales of the core three were high enough to warrant a second printing.

Right, but realistically, that proves nothing about 4e's overall "success."

First of all, they could be "gaming the numbers" a little bit, like when Nintendo didn't make enough Wiis to appease demand. Suddenly, selling out of a Wii was a news story and having a Wii in stock was an event, and this drove up awareness and curiosity. Perhaps they went with an overly conservative estimate for their first printing so they could have some good news to report early on.

Second, even if they didn't do this kind of par-for-the-course kind of PR generation, it's also true that D&D has a lot of brand recognition, and that everyone playing 3e probably would at least check out 4e's core rulebooks. They could've slapped FATAL in between the covers and sold like gangbusters. That's not to say it would continue to sell over the long term.

Anyone claiming that second printing bit as evidence for success is kind of being as clueless as someone claiming a local negative buzz as evidence for failure. Neither is strong evidence.

All we really have is rampant speculation and hearsay.

But the OP is right in that, ultimately, it doesn't matter either way. Sales don't tell you what kind of game it is, or whether you should like it or not. They just might tell you how long until 5e, if you were a betting man. Other than nerd rage on either side, it's kind of a pointless conversation.

If you're playing 4th edition and you're having fun, I'm happy for you. If you've decided to give something else a try and are having fun with it, I'm also happy for you. From what I'm seeing from where I sit, the RPG publishing field is really opening up in a way I didn't even see back between 2000 and 2003. Things are just situated differently now due to the popularity of PDF publishing and print on demand services like Lulu.com.

Man, I wish I could figure out how to turn my FFZ work into something folks could pay for right about now...

Still, labor of love and all that....

 

[pawsplay]

It's really hard to compare. The price of printing is higher. The economy is weaker. 3e sold well on the basis of how many people disliked AD&D, whereas 4e was sold to an audience that had responded well to 3e. With 4e, WotC is in competition with their own OOP products, whereas with 3e, AD&D stuff was mostly relegated to used book stores and specialty game shops. It's hard to say what 4e sales figures should look like. If it sells only 60% as many core books as 3e, but they manage to hook 5% of their audience on Digital Initiative and get over half of them to buy Martial Power, they will probably ultimately make more money, which is another way of looking at things.

 

[Keefe the Thief]

To the OP: You´ll always get that on messageboards - to some people, financial success means "my favourite game system / setting has it right, after all!" Just look at the often cited comment about Greyhawk selling as good as FR before being dropped.
Does this say anything about the quality of the setting? No. Greyhawk can be the best setting evar without anybody buying it. But if you like Greyhawk, i´m sure it feels good in a "we were really successful, and then we were stabbed in the back!" way.

And re 4e sales: Wotc is currently competing with the toughest competitor on the market: with themselves, their own, earlier version. It´ll be interesting to watch the development.

 

[Jack99]

Poor selling of 4e relative to expectations is a bad sign for a lot of things. If its selling poorly, then its possible WotC/HAS will cut employees, move focus to other areas, etc. It could result not just in 4e supporters losing the edition war, but in DnD getting shelved by HAS.

Good thing that 4e WotC products haven't sold poorly. Just Mongoose's.

 

[delericho]

Here's a radical idea: what if it doesn't matter how well 4E does? Sales are NOT indicative of the best rule system, right?

While the best selling game may well not be the game with the best rules, sales remain important, especially in the current economy. When times are tough, companies are always going to be much more mercenary in the investments they make. If something isn't showing the expected results, it will get cut far more readily than would be the case when times are good.

And, unfortunately, something like D&D is going to suffer on both sides of the equation: as a leisure purchase, it's almost certainly going to see reduced sales as people cut back (particularly for supplemental books, which aren't needed for play), while at the same time WotC (and/or Hasbro) will be under pressure to keep sales up, or even increase them.

And if the sales don't stay up? Well, that might mean the loss of the lowest-selling items from the schedule going forward (i.e. no more adventures), or it might mean a reduction in production costs (lower quality paper, lower page count, and increased costs to go with it), or it might mean significant layoffs, or simply the cancellation of the line.

I'm no fan of 4e, but right now I really hope that sales are good, and especially that the D&D Insider is doing well.

 

[Cryndo]

I would expect third party publishers to see a rather significant drop in sales in support of 4E compared to 3E. The economy is in shambles compared to the economic boom in place at the time 3E was released. People tend to be much more cautious with their money when they are afraid of losing their jobs or are having difficulty figuring out how to pay the house payment or rent.

I'm sure the economy is a double whammy for third party publishers. People might shell out a bit to get the Core Rules or the FR campaign setting, but they're going to think long and hard before buying a product they don't "need".

Now, I doubt that sales of the D&D brand are down more than the sales of other Hasbro brands. I would imagine, relatively speaking, that D&D is a winner for Hasbro.

I'd also contend that 4E has a different business model than 3E did in it's infancy. If you consider how 4E impacts mini sales and DDI subscriptions, I'd wager Hasbro is pretty pleased with 4E's launch.

 

[wedgeski]

And, unfortunately, something like D&D is going to suffer on both sides of the equation: as a leisure purchase, it's almost certainly going to see reduced sales as people cut back (particularly for supplemental books, which aren't needed for play), while at the same time WotC (and/or Hasbro) will be under pressure to keep sales up, or even increase them.

Actually there is a lot of evidence that gaming dollars are less affected by recession than other leisure purchases.

 

[wedgeski]

First of all, they could be "gaming the numbers" a little bit, like when Nintendo didn't make enough Wiis to appease demand. Suddenly, selling out of a Wii was a news story and having a Wii in stock was an event, and this drove up awareness and curiosity. Perhaps they went with an overly conservative estimate for their first printing so they could have some good news to report early on.

If I may say, I think deliberately under-supplying and denying yourself sales just to create some hypothetical buzz that may, or may not, have an impact on long-term sell-through would be an absolutely idiotic business strategy.

 

[xechnao]

If I may say, I think deliberately under-supplying and denying yourself sales just to create some hypothetical buzz that may, or may not, have an impact on long-term sell-through would be an absolutely idiotic business strategy.

It is not hypothetical. In big scale business what has the higher costs is the commercial department, the one that deals with marketing, promotion, propaganda ...name it as you like. Its role is to effectively condition people so to rise your importance regarding how they consider you. While sale profits are linear (the more you sell the more you gain) commercial costs are not. It may be sound policy at a given point to restrain gains from certain product sales so to gain more benefits in commercial which translates in more sales in the longer term. Remember that what Nintendo cares is not just sales of a single product but how to win over competitors so to gain a recognized position in the market.

 

[wedgeski]

Remember that what Nintendo cares is not just sales of a single product but how to win over competitors so to gain a recognized position in the market.

Nintendo don't position themselves as competitors to MS and Sony so I'm not sure this is a gateway into their corporate thinking. In any case, I would bet money that if the business and brand managers of D&D went to their execs and suggested under-printing on a product that had to recoup huge (relative to the market) development costs before it was even in the black, they'd be handed their respective hats. 4E hype came to a head with the release of the PHB. That's when the shelves needed to be stocked.