Getting a full set is unreasonable

[megamania]

I always try to get full sets of the DDM figures. On a tight budget, I try to order cases from sites that offer decent discounts. Why is it that even with buying 3 cases I can not get a full case?!?

Bloodwar I was short by one

Night Below I am short by two.


Unhallowed I bought only two cases and was short by seven.

I know I will get them through trades or e-bay but by buying THREE cases one would think they should get a full set!


Just ranting





are others finding this is the case for them also?

 

[GAAAHHH]

I don't buy any of them for exactly this reason.

 

[Christian]

Um ... Because the sets are random? I think this is to be expected. I could calculate the expectation if I knew how many minis are in a full set and how many boxes are in a case. Basic statistics ... But it's theoretically possible to buy any number of boxes (as long as the number is small compared to the total number manufactured) and still be missing individual figures.

 

[MerricB]

I always try to get full sets of the DDM figures. On a tight budget, I try to order cases from sites that offer decent discounts. Why is it that even with buying 3 cases I can not get a full case?!?

Because that's not how probability works.

Here's how it works:

There are 12 rares of the 24 rares in each case. So, after your first case, you'll have half the rares.

Now you buy your second case. 12 more rares. You've got a 50% chance with each rare that it was in your first case - 12 rares you have, 12 rares you don't. So - on average - 50% of the figures you get will be duplicated, and 50% will be new. So at this point you have 18 of the rares of the set, with 6 duplicated.

Now you buy your third case. 12 more rares. By this time, your chance for each rare being on not in your first two cases is 25% (6 rares you need, 18 you don't have). On average, you should get 3 rares you didn't have before, and 9 you did. So, after three cases you should be missing 3 rares, and have the other 21 in the case.

As this is all random, you can actually complete a full set out of 3 cases, but it isn't to be expected. It's more likely you'll be missing 1-5 figures.

At this point, the wonderful world of trading and e-bay is open to you. Sites like Maxminis, Hordelings and the Wizards site all have places where you can trade with other collectors. With 3 cases, you are sure to have figures they want for the figures you need.

Cheers!

 

[John Cooper]

Out of curiosity, how much does a case of minis cost? Do you save any money by buying them in bulk like that?

 

[MerricB]

Out of curiosity, how much does a case of minis cost? Do you save any money by buying them in bulk like that?

In general, yes, it costs less. The saving of money depends a lot on your retailer.

(To take an example at random, the Australian distributor MilSims sells individual boosters of Underdark for $18, and a case of 12 boxes for $175. 12x$18=216, so that's a $41 saving, or close to 20% cheaper. This varies by retailer, of course).

What you also get is a bit of consistency in what figures are in a case. You see, cases are seeded.

After you buy a case, you should get...
1 of each of twelve rares (of the 24 available)
1 or 2 of each of the 24 uncommons in the set
4 of each of the twelve commons in the set.

Cheers!

 

[GAAAHHH]

Still, for the cost of a case of minis, I could buy a bunch of gaming books that I would actually use. Out of a case like that, I would likely have about a dozen minis I would actually use, and then I would need to keep up with it by buying into the next set to get minis to go with them.

 

[bento]

When I have a spare $16 I'd rather buying a couple metal minis and a paint bottle or two. Since the first of the year I've invested several hundred in Reaper minis, painting supplies and lessons at Reapercon.

It's paying off by giving me a second hobby to enjoy, one that supports my other hobby. It also gets me most of the minis I want in my game.

Last session it paid off when I pulled out a painted mini for the evil cleric on the cover of Dungeon #142. My players stopped their talking and began passing the figure around the table. One asked "did Reaper make this minis for this adventure?"

I know you can do that with DDMs, but when the paint job is all you, by hand, it feels real good!

 

[Steel_Wind]

Two members of my gaming group buy minis in a big way every set and have since Harbinger.

They buy five cases between them, open them together and equalize the rares.

The last six sets they have ended up being short between two to four rares from two complete sets. Prior to that, I think there were 22 or 23 rares in a set and the five cases would be enough to make two sets.

So your numbers would seem to be in accordance with their experience.

After the move to 24 rares, they usually get the few missing rares from Popular Collections and call it done.

I tend to get only one case which is enough for general needs. I don't need more than that gaming with guys like this.

When I know I will need something I don't have, I have one of the above guys in my group (who has every mini back to Harbinger) bring a couple of mini storage cases to the game, with a broad suggestion of the critters the party will face., e.g. might be devils and demons tonight or "indead and golems please". He packs up and travels with about 250 minis on that theme with him in two plastic tool cases to the game.

It's nice to have friends like this to game with I highly recommend finding some if you can manage it. It's much cheaper than buying the set yourself.

 

[Glyfair]

I know you can do that with DDMs, but when the paint job is all you, by hand, it feels real good!

You obviously haven't seen my painting if you think that I'd feel that way.