It's my understanding that WotC plans to focus on adventures and diversification once the core rule books are out, and that it intends to make a smaller number of high-quality products, rather than flooding the market with tons of books. This approach sounds great to me. I can buy the books and the adventures, and have plenty of playing material, but not feel like I have to incorporate a zillion new rules into my game. I would also buy supplemental materials, such as apps and novels.
My questions are:
1. What happens if WotC steals a large number of players from other systems, since many of us will pick one?
2. What about the artists and writers who produce all of the material? Are there enough of them to create material for both Pathfinder and 5E?
I also really like their marketing plan. 2e made a lot of really interesting supplements that were primarily fluff (settings), and I could only afford to buy a fraction of the ones that I wanted. By reigning it in to a smaller number of high quality books, I will hopefully be able to buy everything I want. I'm also a fan of exercising restraint in the amount of rules books that come. Having a consistent core that only adds new crunch occasionally and in a well planned and thought out manner means higher quality and and product integrity.
2. It seems to me that there are an enormous number of talented artists and writers out there who would love to get involved in creating RPG materials. If the demand increases, there is no shortage of supply to fill it, as long as they are willing to look outside of the fortunate established few.
I believe that the D&D brand itself can make significant money on other mediums beyond the game itself - which is something alluded too my Mearls himself in recent interviews - so long as the brand itself is critically acclaimed and recognisable. Other mediums - like a TV show, or online games or novels - can also mutually bring in new D&D players that could open up new markets for the game (rather than just cater to an ageing core fan base all the time).
Personally, I do hope we see a general shift towards settings and adventures as support - possibly with some free online adventures too. Crunchy ‘splatbooks’ and the like have traditionally sold better than adventure modules, but often to the detriment of the line as a whole. On the one hand, established fans clamour to buy new rules and ‘options’, but to a newbie it often intimidates against investing in it.
So while you may see a short term spike in sales, it can often create a longterm downwards spiral. It’s a bit like creating too many sequels for a movie franchise.
Yep. The new direction really will fix a lot of things.
Those that are loyal to Pathfinder will remain with Pathfinder. If they are able to purchase and play both then they will do that, but if they have to decide between the two then they will go with Pathfinder.
D&D will sell well in the beginning because you can't judge a game without buying it and playing it first. Times have changed with regards to RPGs and D&D. I'm hoping WoTc aren't relying on people to just jump their current ship and flock back over to the revised and rebuilt D&D one because that won't happen. People will migrate over, but it won't be this mass migration that will land them back in the #1 spot for years to come, that ship has already sailed.
It was just last week that I met a couple that primarily play Pathfinder and have no interest in even looking at 5e due to their dislike of 4e. That's the first time I've seen that in person, but I'm pretty sure there are a lot of other people like that.
Here's what I see happening in the future:
1. Some people
really love Pathfinder for what it is. They loved 3e and they love Pathfinder even more. The rules-heavy intricate crunchiness of character building is delightful to them, and they have no desire to switch to anything new unless it is like Pathfinder, but better. These people will not easily convert to 5e. However, in a few years, after 5e becomes well established, some of them will convert (guess: 25%-55%) due to the need to play with others and the increase of 5e's popularity.
2. Some people just don't like 4e and see WotC = 4e, and have no interest in looking at anything they are making (like the couple I met). The majority of these people (80%+) will get over it in a couple of years once 5e is out and there are enough people playing it that they can't afford to stick their head in the sand and actually have to leaf through a core book. So this is the category of temporary hold-outs.
3. Some people
love 4e and feel that 5e is essentially a betrayal (the opposite of group 2). They are less likely to convert (15%-35%) because enough things were changed that are not to their liking, that they will play something else entirely before they will start playing 5e, no matter how many other people are playing 5e.
4. The vast majority of all other D&D players--even those who aren't too sure about 5e at first--aren't nearly as passionate in their opposition as the first 3 groups, and will mostly (50%-80%) convert within the first couple of years. Much of the OSR market is in this category. Of those who do not, a good portion will convert later as 5e's popularity and dominance increases.
5. New players are going to be brought in by the transmedia focus. It may not be as many new players as were brought in via 4e marketing (or it may be more, I'm not qualified to make any sort of predictions in this area). They are going to enjoy 5e and being equivalently loyal to it as people have been throughout most of D&D history. This means they will be subject to capture by other new and exciting RPGs that expand their horizons (such as the way White Wolf stole a lot of AD&D players in the early 90s--some of which have never looked back at D&D since).
In a few years, most fans of D&D of any sort are going to be playing 5e. It won't be exclusive for everyone, as some will play multiple editions and some will also play non-D&D style games, but it will maintain its dominance for the foreseeable future, which is going to be a while as this edition is going to last longer than any edition since AD&D. (I acknowledge a small possibility of a significant enough revision in 4-6 years that some will want to call it 5.5e, and I'm not including that in my prediction of the length of this edition's run.)