Hey Clark -- is that bet still on the table? I've just confirmed my tax refund check, so I'm no longer in danger of risking my mortgage if I lose.
I guess I'd be taking the opposite side--that 4e either doesn't have a public license at all, or the public license doesn't roughly resemble the d20 license. Specifically, that means either 1) it costs money, or 2) it is so restrictive you cannot legally publish all of the following: a campaign setting, a new class, or a new race. Branding limitations, "quality standards" provisions, and the ability to republish content in the PHB, MM, or DMG are all irrelevant.
Is it a bet?