WotC Hasbro's CEO Reports OGL-Related D&D Beyond Cancellations Had Minimal Impact

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Hasbro held a quarterly earnings call recently in which CEO Chris Cocks (who formerly ran WotC before being promoted) indicated that the OGL controversy had a "comparatively minor" impact on D&D's revenue due to D&D Beyond subscription cancellations. He also noted that D&D grew by 20% in 2022 (Magic: the Gathering revenues grew by an astonishing 40% in Quarter 4!)

WotC as a whole was up 22% in Q4 2022.

Lastly, on D&D, we misfired on updating our Open Gaming License, a key vehicle for creators to share or commercialize their D&D inspired content. Our best practice is to work collaboratively with our community, gather feedback, and build experiences that inspire players and creators alike - it's how we make our games among the best in the industry. We have since course corrected and are delivering a strong outcome for the community and game.
 
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And yet, that's kind of what people are doing? People see the matter as done and don't want to talk about it anymore. People are quick to want to move on. Fine, go ahead. No one is dragging people into these arguments. You don't need to defend Wizards, you can just move on and enjoy life.

See. Same goes for you. Nothing has really happened. Instead you might walk away with more alternatives.

I still don't buy the 3pp should have been destroyed narrative. VTTs maybe. But not those 3pps that do some of the dirty work for WotC, i. e. doing niche things, which are not profitable.

They did not backtrack, because of a few people cancelled subscriptions. They did, because they noticed that small 3pp are not willing to do the dirty work anymore. So if destroying them was their goal, they could have done it.
 

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Faolyn

(she/her)
An obvious trap? To destroy them? To what end?

It seems to me you have created a target but haven't established a path to the target or even a motivation for someone to be shooting at the target.

Would you mind putting into words what it is exactly you are upset about?
If WotC's goal was to destroy 3pps, then it would be for reasons that many of us have said, repeatedly--it's very easy to play D&D without ever buying anything from WotC. Literally all you need is the PHB, and you can replace that with the free SRD. There's a million 3pp races/species, archetypes, classes, monsters, spells, magic items, and adventures out there. You could happily play D&D the rest of your life without a single cent going to WotC. And not only that, a lot of the 3pp material can be said to be equally good, or even better, than WotC stuff, and often cheaper as well.

I'd say that's a decent enough motivation.

Whether WotC execs were cackling evilly and petting a white cat while planning the demise of the 3pps, or they simply didn't care that other companies would get hurt while WotC raked in the dough--doesn't really matter all that much.
 

Bill Zebub

“It’s probably Matt Mercer’s fault.”
See. Same goes for you. Nothing has really happened. Instead you might walk away with more alternatives.

I still don't buy the 3pp should have been destroyed narrative. VTTs maybe. But not those 3pps that do some of the dirty work for WotC, i. e. doing niche things, which are not profitable.

They did not backtrack, because of a few people cancelled subscriptions. They did, because they noticed that small 3pp are not willing to do the dirty work anymore. So if destroying them was their goal, they could have done it.

I think it’s as simple as that. It wasn’t angry forum posts and DNDB cancellations that did it, it was phone calls with Mercer, Colville, Goodman, etc.
 


Bill Zebub

“It’s probably Matt Mercer’s fault.”
If WotC's goal was to destroy 3pps, then it would be for reasons that many of us have said, repeatedly--it's very easy to play D&D without ever buying anything from WotC.

Yeah, that’s another point in regard to “they were making plenty of money and growing nicely.” We don’t know what their internal modeling was saying about the future.
 



Yes, when corporations make money, no matter how much it is, investors hope they will make more money, and price things accordingly. Then when they don’t, and the investors are disappointed, the stock price falls and people lose their jobs.

Oh cool, how did that work out with their Magic moves? Did that raise or lower their stock prices?

The point being that in the game theory of publicly traded companies there is, by definition, no such thing as “enough”. Not because of a moral failing of the people who work in them but because of the rules of the game. You might as well accuse the NBA of moral failings for not having a more representative distribution of heights among players.

They can set their own profits projections and make them so they are achievable without massive moves that spark backlash. This is not a skill competition like the NBA, this is them making deliberate choices. They didn't need to set such high predictions, they could have set things that were good while still in reason that didn't require them to take such risky, stupid steps. Again, that's greed. And if you want to say it's institutionalized, fine. But it still doesn't make it anything else.

Now, sometimes the pressure to meet those demands leads to poor decisions, and sometimes those decisions really are evil. (C.f. Purdue Pharma.). I’m sorry but while even a complete revocation of the OGL would have been unfortunate for a number of people, especially those who have built a livelihood on it, it really is “just business.”

You're trying to find greater evils to justify why lesser evils aren't evil. There can be gradations of such things, smaller and larger. If you're cool with them destroying the community that was built around them just so they could make the equivalent of Fortnite dance emotes, that's fine because that's all on you. I just think that sort of behavior is bad and shouldn't be rewarded, and also that we should at least be honest with what it is.

My biggest problem with y'all is that the only way we stopped this was by getting outraged and saying "No", and now we have a bunch of people telling us that we shouldn't have been outraged because this is just was businesses do. You're just neutering what was done by telling them "It's okay, go ahead and do it again. We'll go to bat for you."

I still don't buy the 3pp should have been destroyed narrative. VTTs maybe. But not those 3pps that do some of the dirty work for WotC, i. e. doing niche things, which are not profitable.

If you can buy the VTTs, I don't see why you wouldn't believe 3PPs. It's basically the same thing, but there are more of them. If you are going big, you want to remove risks, and having a bunch of people covering content you may or may not want to cover, thus putting you into competition with them?

To give an example, would you think that Wizards would do a crafting book for 5E if they weren't moving on from the edition? I'd say "No" because crafting has basically been covered a hundred times by other people and other groups. It's a no-win scenario because they have a hundred books people can compare theirs to and inevitably there will be something wrong with it even if they are good. Having those 3PPs, to them, restricts them and removes profit they could be making.

You can make this argument a dozen times and while I'd say it's wrong, I can't argue that it's at least logical, especially if you want to become the EA of Tabletop RPGs. And I'd wager that was some of the thought here: leverage your position to vassalize the market so that your end of it is firmly under your control.

They did not backtrack, because of a few people cancelled subscriptions. They did, because they noticed that small 3pp are not willing to do the dirty work anymore. So if destroying them was their goal, they could have done it.
I think it’s as simple as that. It wasn’t angry forum posts and DNDB cancellations that did it, it was phone calls with Mercer, Colville, Goodman, etc.

No, I disagree with this completely. If it was 3PP people calling them, this wouldn't have gotten into January. It was a combination of everything, because these were all necessary but not sufficient things to sustain an outrage campaign. The fans being angry enough to actually act on their anger, 3PPs standing firm in their refusal to be bullied, and even D&D influencers keeping momentum going. It's not just about one aspect, but the entire wave of things being hard to ignore and brush off: they couldn't control the narrative because they didn't have a single outside source vouching for them. That freaked them out, and I'd say the design studio gave them a face-saving out with the surveys.

Yeah, that’s another point in regard to “they were making plenty of money and growing nicely.” We don’t know what their internal modeling was saying about the future.

But we do know they wanted to go from $150M profits to $1B. I'd say that their modeling said that would be difficult if they didn't take full control of their market. But also, it was their choice to make such sky-high projections. They could have said they'd double or even triple profits in that timespan and that'd still be astounding.
 

Bill Zebub

“It’s probably Matt Mercer’s fault.”
But we do know they wanted to go from $150M profits to $1B. I'd say that their modeling said that would be difficult if they didn't take full control of their market. But also, it was their choice to make such sky-high projections. They could have said they'd double or even triple profits in that timespan and that'd still be astounding.

So…would that be malice or incompetence?

In any event, I made a mistake trying to talk you in off the ledge of outrage. Carry on, if that’s what you like.
 

So…would that be malice or incompetence?

why-not-both-why-not.gif


In the corporate world, they are often hand-in-hand.

In any event, I made a mistake trying to talk you in off the ledge of outrage. Carry on, if that’s what you like.

The mistake your making is thinking that I'm on a "ledge" and that this is just "outrage". Rather, it's just lost trust and a tiredness with seeing people try to gaslight others on what went down and how they went down. We're less than a month removed from this, and yet I see people going hard on justifying the exact stuff Wizards did. I wouldn't talk about it if I didn't see people basically trying to rewrite what we just went through.
 

So…would that be malice or incompetence?

In any event, I made a mistake trying to talk you in off the ledge of outrage. Carry on, if that’s what you like.

As a support to your statement. I knew I heard that one before:

Hanlon's razor is an adage or rule of thumb that states, "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity." Known in several other forms, it is a philosophical razor that suggests a way of eliminating unlikely explanations for human behavior.
 

Bill Zebub

“It’s probably Matt Mercer’s fault.”
But we do know they wanted to go from $150M profits to $1B. I'd say that their modeling said that would be difficult if they didn't take full control of their market. But also, it was their choice to make such sky-high projections. They could have said they'd double or even triple profits in that timespan and that'd still be astounding.

So…would that be malice or incompetence?

In any event, I made a mistake trying to talk you in off the ledge of outrage. Carry on, if that’s what you like.
 



why-not-both-why-not.gif


In the corporate world, they are often hand-in-hand.



The mistake your making is thinking that I'm on a "ledge" and that this is just "outrage". Rather, it's just lost trust and a tiredness with seeing people try to gaslight others on what went down and how they went down. We're less than a month removed from this, and yet I see people going hard on justifying the exact stuff Wizards did. I wouldn't talk about it if I didn't see people basically trying to rewrite what we just went through.

I think the problem is that people use incomplete information to guess what the truth is. I think we should all admit, that we still not know what exactly went on behint the curtains.

Also I think that adding meme pictures to mock people is not helping your case.
 


Teemu

Hero
The new OGL they tried to force on 3PP's was such an obvious trap that it seems screamingly obvious that it was an attempt to destroy them.

That absurdly open-ended content approval clause, where they could revoke the license for any publisher at any time on their judgment of the content alone (supposedly hate-based, but again, solely their judgment) and waiving any right at an outside oversight or judicial review of that would be a blank check for them to shut anyone down at any time, for any reason, with no recourse.

Then there was the explicit ability to amend or revoke the license at any time for any reason. Why would you put time and effort into producing products your company relied on when they were based on a license that could be cancelled at any time, for any reason, with no recourse whatsoever? The very fact they had rescinded the d20 STL in 2008 and that in this scenario they would have "de authorized" OGL 1.0a (after saying for ~20 years they could never do that) would mean no business in their right mind would trust WotC with a license like that.
I believe it was an attempt to protect their IP and brand instead of a clause that would've allowed them to crush competition. They don't have major competition in the tabletop RPG market because 5e is so big compared to everything else. But the stringent protection clauses make sense if you think about the fragility of brands that outside companies can make use of, even if indirectly. Hasbro owns the D&D brand and they make a lot of money off it -- yet other companies can use elements of your brand, so you have less control over it. The ability to control your brand is valuable, even if the latest attempt was shortsighted and ignored the larger context.
 

As a support to your statement. I knew I heard that one before:

Hanlon's razor is an adage or rule of thumb that states, "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity." Known in several other forms, it is a philosophical razor that suggests a way of eliminating unlikely explanations for human behavior.

Hanlon's Razor is not a catch-all excuse for bad behavior, nor does it preclude malice done via incompetence. The outlines of what Wizards wanted to do were obvious in their strategies, and I feel it's getting harder and harder to deny it. That they backed out is a good first step, but trust is easy to lose, hard to earn. I don't think things go back to the way they were just because they were deterred, and that it'll take long-term good behavior to get me to look at Wizards positively again.

I think the problem is that people use incomplete information to guess what the truth is. I think we should all admit, that we still not know what exactly went on behint the curtains.

Also I think that adding meme pictures to mock people is not helping your case.

I'm not sure how I'm mocking him by posting the kid from the El Paso ad. Just felt appropriate. I was going to post the "Don't make me tap the sign" meme for the previous quote, but I guess that would be interpreted wrong.

If I knew where to find/make memes, I would post “The horror…the horror…” from Apocalypse Now.

 



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