Hide and Mv Silently skills are no more!

[Nail]

The ramification is quite clear, and perhaps a bit disturbing: against dedicated skill users, cross-class opposed skills are effectively useless. Though, in fairness, I've tended to find this in my games as well. Fighter guards tend to be hopeless at detecting PC rogues, for example.

This bit interests me, as I've found it to be true under RAW. ....but I'd never thought through this part (bare with me):

• Fighters have a lousy skill list. Virtually none of a Ftr's class skills are worthwhile.
• Purchasing cc skills is expensive, but....
• If Ftr class skills suck, then Ftrs should pick one cc skill and try to max that one out (given max skill ranks).

So, really, every Ftr should have something useful, like Spot or Tumble, instead of Ride or Climb or some such dreck.

RAW: So a typical NPC Ftr 5 should have, what?...a Spot +4? (IME, Spot is one of the most used skills in the game.) Let's say a (PC) Rog 5 is trying to Hide and Move Silently past this Ftr. Assume the Rog 5 has concealment and is passing within 20 ft of the Ftr 5.

Ftr 5
Spot +2 (8 "half" ranks +0 Wis -2 distance)
Listen +0 (2 "half" ranks +0 Wis -2 distance)

Rog 5
Hide +12 (8 ranks +4 Dex -0 ACP)
Mv. Silently +12 (8 ranks +4 Dex -0 ACP)

Given that, the Ftr has a 13.75% chance of Spotting the Rog and a 9.00% chance of hearing the Rog. ...That means he has a 21.5% chance of detecting the Rog, since he can detct him either with a Spot or with a Listen check.

So, the difference between using the RAW (Hide & Mv. Silently) vs. Sneak (combined) is 21.5% vs 13.75%.

How are my numbers so far?

 

[ecliptic]

I think there should be more skills, not less.

 

[Nail]

....Off topic, but: Such as?

 

[DarkMaster]

This bit interests me, as I've found it to be true under RAW. ....but I'd never thought through this part (bare with me):

• Fighters have a lousy skill list. Virtually none of a Ftr's class skills are worthwhile.
• Purchasing cc skills is expensive, but....
• If Ftr class skills suck, then Ftrs should pick one cc skill and try to max that one out (given max skill ranks).

So, really, every Ftr should have something useful, like Spot or Tumble, instead of Ride or Climb or some such dreck.

RAW: So a typical NPC Ftr 5 should have, what?...a Spot +4? (IME, Spot is one of the most used skills in the game.) Let's say a (PC) Rog 5 is trying to Hide and Move Silently past this Ftr. Assume the Rog 5 has concealment and is passing within 20 ft of the Ftr 5.

Ftr 5
Spot +2 (8 "half" ranks +0 Wis -2 distance)
Listen +0 (2 "half" ranks +0 Wis -2 distance)

Rog 5
Hide +12 (8 ranks +4 Dex -0 ACP)
Mv. Silently +12 (8 ranks +4 Dex -0 ACP)

Given that, the Ftr has a 13.75% chance of Spotting the Rog and a 9.00% chance of hearing the Rog. ...That means he has a 21.5% chance of detecting the Rog, since he can detct him either with a Spot or with a Listen check.

So, the difference between using the RAW (Hide & Mv. Silently) vs. Sneak (combined) is 21.5% vs 13.75%.

How are my numbers so far?

Forget about this post

 

[Nail]

Silly Numbers - Statistics

Just in case anyone else is listening:

Using my paltry Statistic skill (4 ranks), I calculated the chances of an observer ("Ftr") noticing a person trying to pass hidden and unheard ("Rog").

The deciding factor is the difference in their checks (Rog - Ftr). So I've determined the chance for a range of differences: between -20 (Ftr is *much* better than rogue) to +20 (Rog is *much* better than Ftr).

There are two systems presented:

• The first ("RAW") is using the RAW, i.e. the Ftr makes both a Spot and a Listen Check, opposed by the Rog's Hide and Mv. Silently check. If the Ftr is successful with either, he's detected the Rog. I assume both Spot and Listen are the same fot the Ftr, and that both Hide and Mv. Silently are the same for the Rog.
• The second is the new Sneak skill ("Sneak"), i.e. the Ftr makes only one check (Spot or Sense, Ftr choses) and the Rogue makes only one check (Sneak).

Here is the probabilities: "Chance of Fighter Success"

Rog - Ftr	RAW	Sneak
    -20	    100.0%	99.8%
    -15	     99.9%	98%
    -10	     98.7%	89%
    -5	     93.1%	74%
      0	     73.7%	49%
      5	     51.0%	30%
     10	     25.6%	14%
     15	      7.4%	 4%
     20	      0.5%	 0.3%

 

[Nail]

Point: You see that the Rog is substantially better at passing unnoticed under the "Sneak" skill system.

Now (assuming my numbers are right): is that a good thing? I say: yes.

 

[Nail]

BTW: Monte Cook's AU (Diamond Throne) system uses the Sneak skill, so I've really not invented anything new there. The new bit, for me, is the combining of the "Rogue autodetectors" into a skill: Sense.

 

[DrSpunj]

Point: You see that the Rog is substantially better at passing unnoticed under the "Sneak" skill system.

Now (assuming my numbers are right): is that a good thing? I say: yes.

Me, too!

Nail, did you include our +2 bonus on the Fighter's side that he gets for being able to roll either a Sense or a Spot? That's important to the percentages when trying to balance our House Rule(s) to Sense & Spot.

BTW, I also appreciate the fact, both as a player and as a DM, that under these House Rules no matter what scenario comes up it's always a single opposed roll. Usually when someone is trying to Sneak somewhere they are forced to make a series of skill checks to ultimately reach their goal. This effectively translates into two things under the RAW: twice as many rolls (both Hide/Spot & Move Silently/Listen) which slow the game down tremendously and each set of rolls is another chance for the Rogue to fail.

The RAW numbers above support that trying to be stealthy when you're not beating the schmuck by at least +15 on the dice rolls is a pretty risky venture. For a single roll with less of a bonus, the odds are still good, but with multiple checks involved (any one of which means your toast) your chances of success fall pretty quickly.

Thanks.

DrSpunj

 

[DarkMaster]

Me, too!

Nail, did you include our +2 bonus on the Fighter's side that he gets for being able to roll either a Sense or a Spot? That's important to the percentages when trying to balance our House Rule(s) to Sense & Spot.

BTW, I also appreciate the fact, both as a player and as a DM, that under these House Rules no matter what scenario comes up it's always a single opposed roll. Usually when someone is trying to Sneak somewhere they are forced to make a series of skill checks to ultimately reach their goal. This effectively translates into two things under the RAW: twice as many rolls (both Hide/Spot & Move Silently/Listen) which slow the game down tremendously and each set of rolls is another chance for the Rogue to fail.

The RAW numbers above support that trying to be stealthy when you're not beating the schmuck by at least +15 on the dice rolls is a pretty risky venture. For a single roll with less of a bonus, the odds are still good, but with multiple checks involved (any one of which means your toast) your chances of success fall pretty quickly.

Thanks.

DrSpunj

Having one roll for everything remove a lot of outcomes to different actions. Being seen and being heard while sneaking will have two completly different outcome. The guard might hear the rogue, but he doesn't where the sound comes from and will have to investigate, the rogue can then uses an illusion or another ability to fool the guard into beleiving that it is something else.
and I don't think yours maths can take that into account. The less skill you have the more you reduced the RPG opportunity. The game as it is build already focus on fighting. If you want to make it lighter I would focus more on the fighting part. Skills are an important part of a character. What if I want to play a coward gnome illusionist that hide all the time, but has no interesst in moving silently. Your option reduces my RPG options without bringning much to the game.

Same thing for social encounter, sometimes you pass the diplomacy check but are unable to pull out the lie. Sometimes having three roll determining a results will lead to 8 possible outcomes instead of 2.

IMHO reducing skills only reduces the RPG possibility.

 

[Nail]

Nail, did you include our +2 bonus on the Fighter's side that he gets for being able to roll either a Sense or a Spot?

Didn't have to, for the basic anylsis above...I just looked at the difference between the final check numbers.

After all, the *big* circumstance penalty - distance - is liable to change things far more than the synergy bonuses. Minus 1 per ten feet, after all.

If we agree that my statistics are good (I'm fairly confident), then we can go into specific scenarios and see if things still look okay. For instance, we could look at a dedicated Spot-ting ranger vs. a dedicated Sneak-y rogue, same level, DMG wealth guidelines.

Given the availability of concealment, should such a Rog be able to sneak up on such a Rgr?

Another question (an excellent one!) brought up by Al: Does being able to buy Sneak so cheaply (cross-class; one skill as opposed to 2 skills), along with the "uber-ness" of sneaking, mean that soon everyone will want to have a great Sneak skill?

***********************
A separate thought:

Generally, we all agree that a rogue should be able to sneak past a mook guard.

But concider this: Most areas that a mook guard might be stationed probably don't have concealment within a reasonble distance - say 60 ft? No concealment = can't use the Hide (or Sneak) skill.

IOW: Most rogues won't be able to sneak past mook guards, regardless of relative skills.....without magic, of course.