how does a culture recover from an apocalyptic event?

[Dr. Strangemonkey]

Kobolds are small and reptilian and thus need less food than pretty much everyone else. They are naturally sorcerers and that doesn't need training of the usual sort and for the warriors, wood sucks as armor, but is better than nothing.



Remember this is after 90% of both populations have been erraticated by something.

Lizards need less food, true, but that is primarilly because they are far less active. If you make a lizard exercise as much as a mammal does its caloric intake and muscle structure change to become roughly similar to that of the mammals. So if you want to put an army of 1000 people up who don't move much and spend most of their time lying in warm light up against an army of 200 people who don't even sleep so much as trance, can more or less see in the dark, have worked and trained together for at least a century, and have an order of magnitude higher ability thanks to a cabal of 10th level + officers than I wish you luck

Look a hundred people shooting magic arrows at you, which would be something of a feat given the line of sight and range rules, is impressive. But it's still just 100d4s. Five times, at most.

Archers can arc fire, will have way higher hit points, do more damage - even though the damage isn't as certain - and have a useful primary attribute. They're probably carrying more than five arrows.

Not saying Kobolds are bad, just that you shouldn't discount Elves.

Loosing 90% of your population is bad, and the Elves will likely take a bigger hit than Kobolds given that they have more to loose. But somehow I still think the Elves will end up with more levels after the quake is done.

 

[Dr. Strangemonkey]

Thinking about it I don't know what would be more advantageous at the low level of things:

higher magic or higher fortitude saves?

Crocs do do well after a disaster but that's part of their life cycle.

And I'd almost argue that you would need fast householders more than fast breeders.

Claiming the land and filling it up is super effective if the model of the North American east coast is to be believed.

If we're really doing a DnD race game then I'd put Centaurs on top.

 

[DMH]

So if you want to put an army of 1000 people up who don't move much and spend most of their time lying in warm light up against an army of 200 people who don't even sleep so much as trance, can more or less see in the dark, have worked and trained together for at least a century, and have an order of magnitude higher ability thanks to a cabal of 10th level + officers than I wish you luck

Okay, let's bring back the food requirement to the level of the halfling (which is still less than elves). 1000 3rd level troops with short bows (all you need is wood, feathers and sinew) plus 50 sorcerers of various levels vs 200 8th troops plus 5 wizards of 12th level may go to the elves, but that is not the point. Elves will die and that will reduce their numbers so that it will take decades or better to replace them. Kobolds can do the same in less than 20 years. 2000 years of this will wear down the elves into extinction.

Loosing 90% of your population is bad, and the Elves will likely take a bigger hit than Kobolds given that they have more to loose. But somehow I still think the Elves will end up with more levels after the quake is done.

Levels don't matter- die rolls do. A elf that kills a kobold with one hit will take 10 (or more) in return. Kobolds should be conditioned by their clerics to concentrate combat on one target at a time. And some of them are going to get crits.

You are also ignoring the kobolds natural trap making abilities. They can be used to make the elves lives miserable (possibly by removing limbs or injecting poison).

 

[Hand of Evil]

Now that I'm noting the direction the debate is going, perhaps a better question to ask is this: what sort of demographic crisis would leave such a long and traumatic memory that stretches over centuries?

The great flood comes to mind and then Atlantis (which maybe the same in a way). Both give stories that are still looked at today.

 

[fusangite]

There is a lot more pressure from the other races. Humans kill kobolds and goblins by the metric ton and yet they are still around because of their ability to breed so fast.

That's not how I interpret the reasons behind the continued existence of large goblinoid populations. What gives you the sense that human beings are constantly making incursions into these races' territory and killing them on an enormous scale? There seem to be precious few human civilizations in game worlds I know that send big armies against goblins and kobolds on a regular basis. I similarly find no evidence in the core books that these creatures have extraordinary growth capacities.

When that pressure disappears

Why would that "pressure" disappear? Often people respond to demographic crises by fighting more not less. The world from 540-660 was incredibly warlike; Justinian's reconquest took place against a backdrop of plague, starvation and agricultural failure. Similarly, many indigenous peoples in the Americas responded to demographic collapse by heavily militarizing. So, I just don't buy that people affected by a demographic crises would be less likely to attack a threatening neighbour.

then the fast breeders will fill all the available space before the other races.

Again, I don't see this following at all. Goblins and kobolds have light blindness; if 90% of the local goblin and kobold populations have just disappeared, along with various other underground dwellers, wouldn't these creatures fill underground areas that they could inhabit comfortably before going out onto marginal land on the surface?

And again, I don't think we know enough about the relative reproductive stats for the various species to assume that goblins and kobolds are the most efficient at reproducing if social controls are removed.

There will be so many that they will be able to kill their compeditors with numbers alone.

I think you are firmer footing saying this when you talk about species with which goblins and kobolds compete. But elves and humans are not really among those.

Also, look at the hit dice of various creatures when they reach adulthood. How many adult kobolds does it take to kill 10 adult bugbears? How many adult bugbears does it take to kill 10 adult kobolds?

Or better still, how about another egg-laying greater HD species like Kuo-Toa?

They also have an average Str of 6; a kobold warrior wielding a weapon is doing an average 1 point of damage per hit and takes 3hp of damage before he dies. An adult bugbear does an average of 6 points of damage per hit and takes 16hp of damage to die.

Furthermore, if kobolds became a really significant threat, wouldn't other creatures ally against them?

It seems to me that your birthrate = everything argument is just way too deterministic.

 

[mmadsen]

Also, look at the hit dice of various creatures when they reach adulthood. How many adult kobolds does it take to kill 10 adult bugbears? How many adult bugbears does it take to kill 10 adult kobolds?
[...]
They also have an average Str of 6; a kobold warrior wielding a weapon is doing an average 1 point of damage per hit and takes 3hp of damage before he dies. An adult bugbear does an average of 6 points of damage per hit and takes 16hp of damage to die.

Kobolds (Atk +1) hit bugbears (AC 17) 0.25 times per round for 2.67 points of damage per hit -- or one bugbear down per kobold per 24 rounds.

Bugbears (Atk +5) hit kobolds (AC 15) 0.55 times per round for 6.5 points of damage (more than the typical kobold's 4 hp) -- or roughly one kobold down per bugbear per two rounds (1.8 if you're picky).

The kobolds are roughly one thirteenth as effective, meaning they need less than a four-to-one advantage (square root of 13) -- assuming they fight a stand-up fight to the last humanoid, and assuming that they can deploy their greater numbers effectively.

 

[DMH]

What gives you the sense that human beings are constantly making incursions into these races' territory and killing them on an enormous scale?

Not armies, adventurers. How many goblin villages have been destroyed since 3e started?

Why would that "pressure" disappear? So, I just don't buy that people affected by a demographic crises would be less likely to attack a threatening neighbour.

90% of them and their neighbors are gone. Most likely there is going to be a lot of empty land where they can disappear into.

Again, I don't see this following at all. Goblins and kobolds have light blindness; if 90% of the local goblin and kobold populations have just disappeared, along with various other underground dwellers, wouldn't these creatures fill underground areas that they could inhabit comfortably before going out onto marginal land on the surface?

That is true. I have never used them as underground dwellers and forgot about their adversion to sunlight. So that restricts them to dense forest and swamps after they destroy the dwarves and drow (if they were affected by the cataclysm).

And again, I don't think we know enough about the relative reproductive stats for the various species to assume that goblins and kobolds are the most efficient at reproducing if social controls are removed.

I am basing my arguement on the Dragon article I referenced earlier.

I think you are firmer footing saying this when you talk about species with which goblins and kobolds compete. But elves and humans are not really among those.

Huh? Goblins and kobolds are notorious raiders of human lands and when given the chance elven forests as well.

Also, look at the hit dice of various creatures when they reach adulthood. How many adult kobolds does it take to kill 10 adult bugbears? How many adult bugbears does it take to kill 10 adult kobolds?

Doesn't matter. Time is on the side of the kobolds and as long as they can wear down their compeditors over time, they win.

Or better still, how about another egg-laying greater HD species like Kuo-Toa?

They are fish and resticted to underground water. The only other people they are at war with are the aboleth. They do have the advantage of numbers, but slaves (skum) and magic tilt the favor to the aboleth. If the cataclysm affected both, I can see the kuo-toa getting the upper hand and within kuo-toa 4-5 generations (maybe less if they produce a lot of fry).

Furthermore, if kobolds became a really significant threat, wouldn't other creatures ally against them?

Yes and no. Humans, gnomes, halflings and elves would ally. But kobolds could, with magic and threats, gain goblins, ogres and other "humanoids" as allies. And in the numbers game, the latter win out because they all have a shorter generation.

It seems to me that your birthrate = everything argument is just way too deterministic.

In Earth's history the hunter-gather peoples have been pushed out by those with agriculture. Why? Because people who farm have more food and thus a higher population. More people means more soldiers.

But you haven't introduced the greatest variable in the whole conflict- magic. There are kobold sorcerers that are in the high teens in level, but their numbers are smaller than the elven wizards of comparable power. But then there maybe more low level spell casters among the kobolds than the elves (relating to the increased survival of spell casting beings over their relatives).

Also look at how an elf has to be 150 years old before he can be considered a first level anything. A kobold reachs that in 7. Kill an elf and it takes more than 150 years to replace him. Kill a kobold and it takes more than 7.

It would be nice if we could find out what caused this cataclysm and then it would be easier to determine the results.

 

[Dr. Strangemonkey]

Okay, let's bring back the food requirement to the level of the halfling (which is still less than elves). 1000 3rd level troops with short bows (all you need is wood, feathers and sinew) plus 50 sorcerers of various levels vs 200 8th troops plus 5 wizards of 12th level may go to the elves, but that is not the point. Elves will die and that will reduce their numbers so that it will take decades or better to replace them. Kobolds can do the same in less than 20 years. 2000 years of this will wear down the elves into extinction.

Levels don't matter- die rolls do. A elf that kills a kobold with one hit will take 10 (or more) in return. Kobolds should be conditioned by their clerics to concentrate combat on one target at a time. And some of them are going to get crits.

You are also ignoring the kobolds natural trap making abilities. They can be used to make the elves lives miserable (possibly by removing limbs or injecting poison).

Short bows that are battle effective are actually a pretty sophsiticated technology, and heavily outclassed by the Elvish longbows regardless.

The natural trap making is fine, probably explains why Kobolds do as well as they do, but I just can't see it being that useful when making incursions onto Elvish territory.

And levels do matter, it's very rarely my experience that the higher level veteran who hits once and is effective actually feels the numbers of his or her combatants in the next round. In point of fact the high AC, the increased ability to take advantage of the terrain, and the greatly increased magical capability make that those 8th level troops will likely take few casualties whatsoever. Particularly since we are highly unlikely to be discussing an actual set battle. I mean 2000 years of the Kobolds having to start every incursion over from scratch while the Elves retain a high portion of their prior resources... even if the Kobolds grow faster, the Elves just have to grow slightly faster than their comparatively marginal rate of recline to do better.

The general result of such disasters is a distinct lack of dominance by any group saving intervention by a fairly isolated power or new technology set.

Regardless, I'm not arguing that Kobolds wouldn't do fairly well, just that I don't think they would be dominant. Were I they I would stop my minions from challenging the prior dominant groups and simply work to move into the empty lands that will be left behind as they compress. Then you can have Kobolds working to master the fast homesteader model I mentioned earlier.

If the Kobolds are lucky they manage to discover to conserve and grow their limited level capital potential and use their tenacity to set themselves up as a strong power in the new order.

 

[DMH]

assuming they fight a stand-up fight to the last humanoid, and assuming that they can deploy their greater numbers effectively.

They have an Int of 10 so I would assume they are not tactically stupid. They may not consider an individual important at all, but that doesn't mean they don't know how to kill their enemies effectly.

 

[mmadsen]

They have an Int of 10 so I would assume they are not tactically stupid. They may not consider an individual important at all, but that doesn't mean they don't know how to kill their enemies effectly.

Those were assertions necessary for the math (Lanchester's Square Law) to hold true.