How long until we hit PL 6?

[ogre]

I've pondered the future quite a bit, as I'm working on a game that takes place 700 years in our future. The conclusion I have come to is drastic changes come very slowly. Hence, I voted for the 75+ years.
I realize we have faster computers, smaller gadgets etc., but what I see is, looking back 30 or 40 years (the 60s and 70s), many major things haven't changed a bit. Air travel, car travel, it all still takes us (the consumer) the same amount of time to travel from here to there. Sure, there's minor luxuries, but the basic modes of travel haven't changed in almost half a century.
I agree with most of what Arkhandus has said, but I ask... judging by how people drive.. do we really think we'll be flying cars in our forseeable future? I would say, only if it becomes completely (or nearly) automated. I mean, people can't even merge in 2 dimensions, let alone 3!! I think its the ole' LCD (lowest common denominator) factor that will hold us back every time. That and greed. The oil companies will keep us on their teet for as long as they can, 50-100 years at least.
My opinion is that in 100 years we may have viable fusion, for reactors and mass power, but safe-for-the-consumer fusion? I'd bet 200 years at least.

I look forward to counter opinions, just so you'all don't think I'm trying to preach here. Anyone still interested in discussing the prospects of the future further?

 

[Arkhandus]

Yep, I agre Ogre.

As it is today, though, there are cars with a form of auto-pilot using GPS and such, but I can't recall if they're all just experimental right now or if some of them are actually in standard production...... I've seen them on TV and stuff; the driver can just drink coffee, read the newspaper, and listen to the radio while the computer controls the car. I don't recall though right now if the brakes and gas were also automated or not.....last time I saw or read anything on this subject, was at least a year ago. When we're finally flying cars around everywhere, they will doubtlessly have integrated auto-pilot systems that can follow governmentally-designated air routes, like traffic lanes but in three dimensions, and the auto-pilot will likely take over any time the driver tries to go "off-road" in areas that are off-limits to aerial off-roading. 3-D autopilot capabilities shouldn't be beyond our ability to design and build by the time we have the proper infrastructure and such for flying cars.

 

[Elephant]

Yep, I agre Ogre.

As it is today, though, there are cars with a form of auto-pilot using GPS and such, but I can't recall if they're all just experimental right now or if some of them are actually in standard production......

Highly experimental. Artificial intelligence techniques to get a computer to reliably drive a car don't exist yet - oh, they work well in the lab, but put the AI in the field, and you end up with things like swerving at trees because there are leaves on the road, creeping along at 5 MPH because the computer requires too much time to process incoming data, things like that. A workable solution would be to line the roadway with location beacons, but the expense of dropping all those beacons would be prohibitive. As for GPS, well, that has a fudge factor of a couple of meters - plenty to get a car in BIG TROUBLE.

 

[Arkhandus]

Well, I've always figured anyway that the sky lanes would be lined with some manner of markers, anyway.... Once we can have affordable air cars for most folks, we should be able to float or fly small 'roadsigns' and such at every aerial 'street corner' or the like, even if only on small balloons with a tiny electronic beacon and small position-maintaining rotors, thrusters, or whatever. GPS won't be needed then except for determining the basic coordinates at which to scan for important markers along the route. If we can advance appropriate flight technology enough to be affordable, making enough such aerial markers/beacons at a decent price should be no problem at all. And anyway, I kinda figure we'll be mining minerals/metals/whatever from the Moon, or Mars, by that point. Not sure though just how much/little metal those planetoids have........

 

[ogre]

As far as auto drive goes, I followed this race last year...
This explains the race:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/10/1006_051006_robot_car.html
and this was the aftermath:
http://news-service.stanford.edu/news/2005/october12/stanleyfinish-100905.html
Here's an interesting quote
"A U.S. Congress mandate requires that one-third of military ground vehicles drive themselves by 2015, but the technology to meet that mandate does not yet exist."

I wonder how much of a leap it is to do this while flying, with people inside?
Even though autonav capability will probably be the norm, I found it rather uninspiring for a game and still had people manually driving vehicles, or at least the option to drive antigrav cars etc. manually. Where's the fun when the robot is making all the pilot checks?

But aside from all that, it does seem that while computer / gadget technology seems to be moving quickly enough, other things don't. And as someone pointed out, who knows? We may discover a limit to everything as to how small or fast we can make it.

On another tangent...
At which point do we start genetic manipulation? You know its coming... to prevent disease and other genetic birth maladys. I think this will come sooner than a new energy source (like fusion), probably within the next 50 years and by 100 it will be uncommon not to be altered at birth. Especially to artificially 'evolve' ourselves to our rapidly changing global climate.

 

[Mustrum_Ridcully]

Well, modern planes can fly and land pretty much automatically. But the air isn't as full and tight as the car, and there are a lot less possible routes to take.

One problem today might be the law - All planes must be flown by hand, without computer control. This is a problem for designing new types of air craft (like those "Wing-Only" planes), but it would also apply to civil users, meaning that they have to have a piloting license.

I also doubt that flying will ever be econimcal viable for short ranges and few passengers. You need to much energy to get up in the air, and you don't get a real benefit once you have to control air traffic that is as tight as the current road traffic.

In any case, I doubt we will see flying cars (on a regular base) within the next 50 years.

 

[Eternal Knot Games]

Ah, but how long will it take us to get back to the moon?

Fusion reactors might depend on lunar bases before they are used here.

But back to the moon; we have all the technology to go there now, heck we could live on Mars if we wanted too, but all that's happen to the Moon (and Mars) in the last few years are robots and remote surveys...

 

[Elephant]

On another tangent...
At which point do we start genetic manipulation? You know its coming... to prevent disease and other genetic birth maladys. I think this will come sooner than a new energy source (like fusion), probably within the next 50 years and by 100 it will be uncommon not to be altered at birth. Especially to artificially 'evolve' ourselves to our rapidly changing global climate.

We have some primitive genetic manipulation going on right now. There are tests for various birth defects, with pregnancy being aborted in some cases, corrective surgery in others. Medical fertility techniques also dip into genetic manipulation; I recently read a book about a child who was born with certain traits selected so that she could be a compatible donor for her older sister (suffering from cancer).

In a lot of cases, "future tech" is within our grasp right now. It just isn't ubiquitous enough for us to all think of it offhand.

 

[Archetype]

We also have a lot of real-world political influences, not factored into any roleplaying game simulation...

***GACK*** (trying to resist the urge to launch a real-world rant...)

{*cough*whataboutthehugemilitary/industrial/congressional/corporatecomplexthatworkstwentyfourseventokeepusforeverchainedtoaprimitivefossilefuelburningcultureofindulgenceandgreedinordertomaintaintheirpowerbasesandprofitmarginsinwhichwewillonlyprogressonceallofournaturalresourcesaredepletedandweareforcedtomoveintothefutureassumingtheydon'tveerusintoextinctionwhileattemptingtobleedusdrytothebone?/*cough*}

That's better.

I really wouldn't want to have to worry anyway, in my lifetime, about my police officer friend having to possibly face laser sniper rifles, high frequency blades, or bio-agent ammunition. He has enough trouble convincing himself to go to work every day having to deal with just armor-piercing rounds and semi-automatic weapons.

 

[Angel Tarragon]

I'm optimistic. 13-25 years. The UK has one guy determined to die as a cyborg. He already has a microchip in his one of his wrists and palns to have one put in his brain next. I'm hoping medical technology develops nanoprobes that are programmed for one function then deactivate and exit the body. Cureently I see us as having one whole foot in the door of PL6, considering the government is always one step ahead of the general public (JMHO).