If you don't know by now that I approach the game with an eye for realism, you probably should avoid responding to me. It's just going to cause you grief when you are wrong a lot in discussions with me. Realism is critical in determining what is most likely or not. However, realism isn't what determines what is permitted or not. At least not in my game.
That's fine, if you like simulationism, but there are many forms of realism:
1) Physical possibility (surviving great falls)
2) Historical accuracy (how restrictive plate armor is)
3) Internal consistency (magic in Harry Potter, as a counterexample)
4) "How likely a person is to choose a particular course of action"
I'm sorry, Max, but of all those categories #4 is so subjective and arbitrary as to be just silly.
But even if it weren't, even if you could accurately predict any person's (or fictional character's) most likely course of action...acting out only those most likely actions is just a miserable excuse for roleplaying. So miserable that I don't believe that's what you really do.
More likely you act out (or believe you act out)
choices from among reasonably probable/plausible alternatives. Which is what I do, as well. The only difference is that you seem to have a rather stricter definition of "reasonable", and in particular you eliminate choices which might break your preferred aesthetic regarding metagaming.
Which is fine. My perception of your interpretation doesn't sound particularly fun or creative to me, but that's where the "if it's fun at your table, go for it" principle kicks in.
The mistake you continue to make is to believe that your threshold between reasonable and unreasonable is the correct one. That choosing a looser definition is "cheating". That the only reason it is ok is because DMs have the power to change rules.
You occasionally pay lip service to the "fun at your table" principle, but you have repeatedly expressed that any way other than yours is not just less fun, but objectively wrong. "Cheating".
OneTrueWayism, at its finest and worst...both at the same time!