How well do you predict non-OGL/CC games will do?

The Soloist

Adventurer
No idea.

From 2021 to 2023 I played 95% non-OGL RPGs. I have no interest in Pathfinder, Tales of the Valiant, 13th AGE 2e, ShadowDark, 5e Level Up or any d20 D&D spin-off. No interest either in Critical Role's Candela Obscura, Daggerheart or MCDM's fantasy RPG. I have no plans to buy D&D 5.5 and don't see myself GMing or playing it.

When I get the D&D itch I solo-play BX (+OSE Advanced which is my only OGL game) for a few sessions.

In 2024, I'll keep buying and playing RPGs by Free League (non-OGL), Green Ronin, Mongoose and Talsorian. They make the RPGs I currently want to play.
 
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BryonD

Hero
Any new game has a huge hill to climb.
I think that two years from now there will be Dungeons and Dragons. Period. Then there will be Pathfinder as as the "other game".
There will also be a vibrant "old school" community happily playing along.
But all the new games will be fantasy heart-breakers. There will be people playing MCDM and loving it, but it wont be any bigger than, say. DCC now. Which could be awesome for MCDM. But the marketplace won't change, just the proper names we are talking about (both those that have faded into the background and those that are coming up soon and are "all the buzz" as "coming in 2027").

Obviously CoC and other alternative genres will plug along just nicely, but that is a separate topic really.

And, to reverse myself..... Sometime some new game will launch over that hill and into the sky. D&D will become a quaint name for a respected but outdated predecessor. But that could be 2025 or many years away. And the technology effects will likely result in difficulty in even calling them the same experience. But 99% of players won't care at that point anymore than people care now how much D&D resembles Chainmail.

I also predict that the sun will rise in the east tomorrow.
 

I see 2 main challenges for 3PP, especially small indie publishers:
  • D&D with the OGL has succeeded in dominating the market with D&D or D&D-esque games and companies like Palladium and WW will never again reach the level of popularity
  • AI is going to flood the market with ChatGPT written and Midjourney illustrated products, so finding a 3PP game is going to be harder than ever before, especially since most FLGS don't carry 3rd party systems

Personally I liked it better when every game pretty much had its own system. That said, not sure what the impact will be.

On AI, I think drive-thru banning AI generated products is going to stifle it dominating the hobby
 


Sacrosanct

Legend
WotC has, what, 1500 employees?

A web search tells me Paizo has 125 employees? I expect MCDM, Kobold Press, Evil Hat, Monte Cook, Pinnacle Entertainment Group, and others are more like a couple dozen or less each? None of these are "big" companies.
Well, not big compared to WotC, but definitely a lot bigger than most. Any company that has a gross revenue in the millions is much larger than most 3PP.
 

They haven't banned it. Only stand alone stock art. It's still allowed as long as it's labeled as such and doesn't make up 100% of the end product.

Didn’t they say:

starting on July 31st 2023, Roll20 and DriveThru Marketplaces will not accept commercial content primarily written by AI language generators
 

mamba

Legend
Didn’t they say:

starting on July 31st 2023, Roll20 and DriveThru Marketplaces will not accept commercial content primarily written by AI language generators
what is primarily and how do you verify it?

If I prompt ChatGPT, it produces a few proposals, I take the parts I like and fine-tune and add bits and pieces, is it primarily me or AI?
 

Sacrosanct

Legend
Didn’t they say:

starting on July 31st 2023, Roll20 and DriveThru Marketplaces will not accept commercial content primarily written by AI language generators
Yeah, it's "primary" being the key. I've talked with them about products that seemed an issue, and as long as AI doesn't make up nearly the entirety of the product, it just has to be labeled. Any any pure AI product before 7/31 is still OK to stay there. And that's of course assuming they even know it's AI generated in the first place (which is harder to do with text than it is with art).
 

Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
Supporter
Well, not big compared to WotC, but definitely a lot bigger than most. Any company that has a gross revenue in the millions is much larger than most 3PP.

Okay, so you mean "big, for the RPG space where the standard is basically one person at a laptop in the evenings after work"?
 

My prediction
D&d 5.5 huge hit. You
Might even see some of the companies that left jump back over as cash is king

I think the most fascinating story of 2024/2025 is what critical role will do. If they jump ship then we see a spike in sales short term but I think the RPGs and board games so far produced aren’t very good. Candela is full costume and in my opinion not a call of Cthulhu killer or competitor

Big prediction-modiphius was this little fish that keeps buying other little fish to stay afloat but their old gaming library probably isn’t very profitable (carpenter of mars as an example) and so far the big ips are just treading water. I think they will buy a medium fish that could be shocking
 

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