wilder_jw said:
I understand what you're saying, but I disagree with the terminology. Being "risk averse" means being aware of the probabilities involved and choosing to avoid the possibility of negative outcome, even at the cost of surrendering positive expectation. (You know all that, of course, but some folks might not.)
A player who chooses not to live at the razor's edge in this kind of HP system isn't "risk averse" ... he's simply less ignorant of all of the risks. He's ... "risk cognizant."
I'll stick to what I said. Being risk-adverse means that you value your first (whatever) more than your last (whatever), and being risk-loving measn that you value your last (whatever) more than your first (whatever).
For example, I am risk adverse with money. I wouldn't accept a 50% chance to win $20,000 if the chance cost $10,000 -- I value the $10k I have more than the $10k I stand to gain. If I were risk-neutral, I might well take that chance -- and I certainly would take it if I were risk-loving.
Normally, being somewhat risk-adverse with D&D hit points is sensible -- as the 3.0 DMG said, below-average hp hurt PCs more than above-average hp help them. However, there are times when being risk-loving can be sensible with D&D hit points. For example, take a 90-hp character who expects to face a wizard with
power word kill. With Con 14 and a d12 HD, he'll average 98.5 hp. It would be a prudent strategy for him to reroll anything under 9, though, to maximize the chance of getting to the 101-hp threshhold for surviving PWK. This will lower his average hp by 0.25 hp, but it's a good move in his position.
wilder_jw said:
Are you sure about this? Doesn't this assume, again, that the player (who rolled a 5 on the d10 and chooses to reroll on the d8) will also make the choice to reroll any 5 or 4 on the d8 (a very bad decision, by your own math)?
You're right, though, the "cascading" HD size does make the d10 result of 5 a harder choice than I'd calculated. (Assuming one leaves out everything else in the game that would make rerolling it a bad decision.)
Assuming risk-neutral behavior, or whatever you'd prefer to call it:
On a d4, you average 2.5 -- you can't reroll any lower.
On a d6, reroll 1s and 2s, since you're better off -- on average -- with the d4. Thus, you average (2.5 + 2.5 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6) / 6 =~ 3.8
On a d8, reroll 1-3 since the d6 gives higher results. You average about 5.2
On a d10, reroll 1-5 since the d8 gives better results. You average about 6.6
On the d12, reroll 1-6 since the d10 gives better results in the long run.