If you have an older TV or HDTV or monitor you are screwed!

[LightPhoenix]

Well, should this come into being, I just won't be getting any next-gen movies.

I dare say a lot of us have older models of TVs because we just can't afford even $600 for a new one. I have more important things to pay for, like school and getting a car. Also, I highly doubt that the majority of people who buy DVDs use them to their full potential, since the market for HDTVs, while growing, is still relatively low. When I sold electronics, we easily sold five times more non-HDTVs than HDTVs, and the ratio is probably higher. In fact, our best sellers were the dinky hundred dollar TVs. I would speculate that's a big reason why VHS is still around... although the ability to record shows easily and much cheaper than a Tivo is a plus.

Besides, should this go through, I'm sure they'll release a "converter" of some sort for some outrageous price. They'd be stupid not to, as they'd lose a lot of the casual electronics-buyer crowd. The majority of consumers will not go and buy a new TV just for a new movie format... they'd be crippling the format out the gate.

 

[wingsandsword]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/4176240.stm

Here's a news article from the BBC from today, about this very issue. Attempts within the industry to compromise or set a standard between HD-DVD and Blu-Ray have collapsed, and both are going to be on the market competing with each other head to head.

This is bad for both, as the market is divided among people who wish to stay with their DVD's (cheaper), and people who have to either choose between one of two new formats or buy both (very expensive, and inconvenient).

With this much disorder, I'm not expecting the existing DVD standard to go anywhere anytime soon.

As for the DVD failure bit, some early CD's and CD-ROM's had a problem with the glues holding the two polycarbonate layers together weakening and separating after several years, but later derivatives of the technology (later CD's, and eventually DVD's) didn't have that problem to the best of my knowledge.

 

[Rackhir]

I'm not convinced that the industry's attempts to create a "copy proof" system is technically feasable. As with any encryption system (which is what copy protection is essentially), all it takes is one weak link to break the entire system. IIRC, the DeCSS system that's used on DVDs was originally broken when one company used unencrypted keys in a DVD player.

Furthermore attempts to create such a tightly controlled system are likely to lead to the kind of furror in this thread where irate consumers complain that their player won't talk to the TV and the surround reciever can't play sound off of disks by Sony. Which will cause consumers to stay away in droves and support costs for products to increase dramatically.
The increasing role that computers occupy in media playback/storage also means that it is essentially only a matter of time before any copy protection would be broken in any case. If it is possible to use it on a computer, which will be pretty much mandatory for any future formats, then it can be broken as it is effectively impossible to protect content sufficiently that hackers can't get at it.

Aren't all tv's with HDMI inputs HDCP compliant?

A HDMI connection is essentially a DVI Input with HDCP. There are already compatability problems with this as a result.

This topic is a tempest in a teapot. Despite Hollywood and the RIAA's heart's desire, they can't implement the kind of system they want/would need without completely replacing all the equipment out there.

 

[drothgery]

Besides, should this go through, I'm sure they'll release a "converter" of some sort for some outrageous price. They'd be stupid not to, as they'd lose a lot of the casual electronics-buyer crowd. The majority of consumers will not go and buy a new TV just for a new movie format... they'd be crippling the format out the gate.

Err... anything that let an HD signal get through at full fidelity to a noncompliant display would defeat the entire point of HDCP; I really think those of us without relatively new HDTVs are going to be stuck with downsampled-to-DVD resolution output. Which is well, fine for anyone with a non-HD TV. It's going to bug people with pre-HDMI HDTVs, and people who watch a lot of video on their PCs, but neither are large groups. But I won't be able to see HD movies at 720p on my nice new Dell 20" widescreen LCD monitor...

 

[Dimwhit]

I think people are underestimating the tech firms. They know people aren't going to drop everything and adopt the new technology. I know Blu-ray (and I believe HD DVD) will be backward compatible, so those players will play existing DVDs and CDz. Over the course of several years as people replace their players and TVs, the new technology will be included. It will be years, I think, before any technology change is forced upon the consumers. It will probably be mid-2007 at least before the new players are even reasonably affordable, much less popular.

And all this doesn't take into account the format war that will occur soon. Until that is resolved, they can't force anything, since there won't be a standard that can be relied on.

 

[Fast Learner]

It will be years, I think, before any technology change is forced upon the consumers.

By which time, probably, the concept of distributing digital information on physical media will begin to seem quaint.

 

[ThirdWizard]

By which time, probably, the concept of distributing digital information on physical media will begin to seem quaint.

Storage will be a concern for some time to come. As space increases, so does the resoultion of the media. Soon after Blu-ray DVDs come out, they will be able to pump up the quality to fill the DVD, I'm sure. When you're looking at a 50 Gigabyte movie, it starts to seem more reasonable to go out and buy it rather than download it and store it either on a hard drive or burn it yourself. This is assuming, of course, that in 8-10 years High Def will be as ubiquitous as DVDs are now.

 

[TanisFrey]

I have noticed that several new dvd's will not play correctly on my "dvd" player. My playstation is a couple of years old. So I have noticed this basic premeis happening already.

 

[Umbran]

[off topic]
As good a thread as any to ask: Is there any validity to the story that DVDs have a lifespan of about 10 years, then they've degraded too far to be useful?
[/off topic]

As far as I am aware, the answer to that is "not on their own"

CDs and DVDs can degrade. For one thing, casual handling can sceratch the surface, and enough scratches will eventually ruin the disk. For another, in the very long term, they are subject to oxidation damage of the actual media under the plastic surface. Media you can write to will generally have a shroter lifespan than production media.

If I recall correctly, the projected half-life of some of the first CDs was 15 years. While the encoding has remained pretty much the same, the manufacturing process has improved. Current mass manufactured DVDs have a projected lifespan of 50 to 300 years, depending upon who you ask (and it's all theoretical, given that the media is young). DVD-Rs are currently expected to last 20 or more years.

 

[Fast Learner]

Storage will be a concern for some time to come. As space increases, so does the resoultion of the media. Soon after Blu-ray DVDs come out, they will be able to pump up the quality to fill the DVD, I'm sure. When you're looking at a 50 Gigabyte movie, it starts to seem more reasonable to go out and buy it rather than download it and store it either on a hard drive or burn it yourself. This is assuming, of course, that in 8-10 years High Def will be as ubiquitous as DVDs are now.

I don't disagree that these are problems, but as people become accustomed to video on demand (which will blossom in the next few years), bandwidth with increase, with fiber-to-the-home becoming more and more common, with the pipes behind it growing to meet the demand.

You don't necessarily need to store much of anything with a very wide pipe and the ability to purchase the rights to watch something (even unlimited times). IMO, the desire to "own" electronic media will decrease dramatically as near-instant access to it becomes more real.