Industry status

[Katemare]

(Long time no see, eh...)

I wonder, what is the status of tabletop RPG industry? Does it grow or shrink? Are best-selling games getting simpler or crunchier? Do unusual games sell better or worse than in previous years? In this thread, I'm interested in statistics and trends of commercial RPG industry.

Thing is, I work in MMO-development, and we had a run-in among game designers about TRPG perspectives. My call is that TRPGs have stable and vast audience (although small compared to videogames), and it grows thanks to D&D popularity and innovative, casual-player-friendly indies. My opponent says that TRPG demographics is hardcore fans and inevitably diminishing, that indies sell so poorly they don't contribute to industry, and thus actual game systems are alike and can't compete to MMOs that have "the same social feature".
Please, help me resolve the conflict.

 

[DaveMage]

I would guess that the number of tabletop players is ultimately shrinking, but at what rate, I have no idea. It's likely that its also aging, and I really don't see the current or next generation embracing it like previous generations have.

 

[AllisterH]

Your best bet is ICV2. the only independent organization that tracks the hobby industry in the US.

 

[Katemare]

AllisterH, thanks, that helped!

 

[Dragonbait]

That was a surprising list: Warhammer 40k at number 2? the Song of Fire and Ice at number 4?

 

[Umbran]

We do have a problem on this general topic in that nobody has what I would call solid data. ICv2 may be the best we have, but that doesn't mean what we have is good.

Note that those chart was based on "interviews with retailers, distributors, and manufacturers", not exactly an easily referenced and validated data source. If those who were interviewed did not refer to actual sales data, then we are talking about personal impressions and opinions.

 

[thecasualoblivion]

Never mind personal bias in topics like this, where people take the lack of success and diminishing interest in the games they like to be indicative of the hobby as a whole.

 

[AllisterH]

We do have a problem on this general topic in that nobody has what I would call solid data. ICv2 may be the best we have, but that doesn't mean what we have is good.

Note that those chart was based on "interviews with retailers, distributors, and manufacturers", not exactly an easily referenced and validated data source. If those who were interviewed did not refer to actual sales data, then we are talking about personal impressions and opinions.

True...and keep in mind the list I posted was _ONLY_ for the quarter 2 of 2009.

It also of course doesn't track internet PDF sales. For example, Pathfinder might be the best selling RPG for Q3 but ICV2 though doesn't have an effective way to track their PDF sales.

Still, ICV2 is the closest you get to an unbiased source since they aren't attached to any one company.

 

[malraux]

True...and keep in mind the list I posted was _ONLY_ for the quarter 2 of 2009.

It also of course doesn't track internet PDF sales. For example, Pathfinder might be the best selling RPG for Q3 but ICV2 though doesn't have an effective way to track their PDF sales.

Still, ICV2 is the closest you get to an unbiased source since they aren't attached to any one company.

Doesn't it also ignore mainstream book sellers like Barnes and Noble and Amazon?

 

[Nifft]

The industry has been dead for 12 years, but it seems to be thriving thanks to an unholy combination of Necromancy and Illusion magic.

Cheers, -- N