Ingram Sales Numbers of D&D 4th Edition Books

[sfield]

Real Numbers Analysis and the Book Industry
As I was reviewing the lawsuit information it states that they have sold hundreds of thousand of "Core Books"

If you go to Wizards website and look at their product list almost every "Core" book is included with the exception of Forgotten Realms. I'm thinking they are pulling a fast one on the definition of Core Books not just to mean the 3 Core Books. I've have been trying to find hard sales figures and until now have been unsuccessful. Doing a google search I found out about the Ingram Inventory Automated Checker.

Ingram is a book supplier (one of the largest) that you can obtian sales numbers through. They have an automated system (615) 213-6803 and all you have to do is type in a ISBN number and it will give you the sales numbers for the books they have distributed for Last year and the current year. You can check my numbers if you like. I also didn't check every book but most of them.

I have read on other websites that if you multiply by a factor of 6 these numbers somewhat represent US sales. I don't know if that is true. There are some pay for service firms that will provide hard numbers as well. I don't feel the need to pay for those services.

However, from what I see in Chicago, the books are not selling well at the local game shops and Borders and Barnes and Nobles have significantly shrunk the area in the store where they sell the books and maintain fewer copies.

BTW: Even though the PHB2 is suppoed to be sold out I have found it for sale in dozens of stores with mutliple copies still for sale. In any case these are some REAL hard numbers of sale and I would say they are a bit dissapointing.

Taken as of 4/9/2009
In any case from the system:
The 4th Edition Core Gift Set
YTD: 123 2008: 2,200

The 4th Edition Players Hand Book
YTD: 197 2008: 5,785

The 4th Edition Deluxe Players Handbook
YTD: 1 2008: 25

Totalled: 8,331 copies of the Players Handbook have sold.
If we multiply that by 6 (See Above) that gives us a sales level of 49,986 units.

The Players Handbook II:
YTD: 1,440 2008: N/A

With the Multiplier factor we get: 8,640 units

To be on the best seller list I have also read that you can get on with sales at a minimum level of 5,000 weekly units. The fact that PHB2 is higher rated than the PHB on the New York times bestseller list means nothing. It is all based on how the competeting books are doing. I believe the print run for PHB2 is lower than PHB1.

If you look at the rest of the numbers you will see that their accessory products don't sell that well.

Take it for what it's worth but they are real numbers at least.

4th Edition Core Rulebook Gift Set
YTD: 123 2008: 2,200
Adventurer's Vault
YTD: 116 2008: 1,127
An Adventurer's Guide to Eberron: 0786948558
YTD: 8 2008: 88
D&D Dungeon Tiles VI: Fane of the Forgotten Gods 0786948000
YTD: 52 2008: 252
Draconomicon I:
YTD: 68 2008: 132
DU1 Halls of the Giant Kings Dungeon Tile 0786948736
YTD: 0 2008: 256
DU2 Streets of Shadow Dungeon Tiles 0786949791
YTD: 255 2008: 244
Dungeon Delve 0786951397
YTD: 362 2008: 0
Dungeon Master's Guide 0786948809
YTD: 82 2008: 1,440
Dungeon Master's Screen 0786949279
YTD: 180 2008: 485
Forgotten Realms Campaign Guide
YTD: 61 2008: 603
Forgotten Realms Player's Guide 0786949295
YTD: 151 2008: 1,666
H1 Keep on the Shadowfell 0786948507
YTD: 120 2008: 828
H2 Thunderspire Labrynth 0786948728
YTD: 11 2008: 326
H3 Pyramid of Shadows 078694935X
YTD: 36 2008: 238
Manual of the Planes
YTD: 309 2008: 519
Monster Manual 0786948523
YTD: 124 2008: 2,237
Open Grave 0786950692
YTD: 124 2008: 2237
P1 King of the Trollhaunt Warrens 0786949287
YTD: 15 2008: 137
P2 Demon Queen's Enclave 0786949775
YTD: 47 2008: 47
P3 Assault on Nightwyrm Fortress 0786950005
YTD: 18 2008: 0
Players Handbook
YTD: 197 2008: 5,785
Wizards Presnts: Worlds and Monsters 0786948027
YTD: 7 2008: 523
Players Handbook 2
YTD: 1,440 2008: N/A
Deluxe Players Handbook 0786950439
YTD: 1 2008: 25
Deluxe DM's Guide 0786950447
YTD: 0 2008: 19
Deluxe Monster Manual 0786950455
YTD: 1 2008: 14
3.5 Players Handbook: 0786928867
YTD: 0 2008: 426

The automated site also supplies expected demand number for the week and sales last week. This is the best you are going to do for Free. It only goes back to 2008.

 

[charlesatan]

I'd just like to clarify that yes, Ingram is one of the bigger book distributors out there but they're not the only one.

If you're a comic or a gaming shop for example, it's most likely that your distributor is Diamond rather than Ingram. Whether your comic store of gaming store is capable of acquiring titles from Ingram, you should ask them.

Ingram sales figures most likely represents RPG books that are sold in bookstores. So this is only a piece of the bigger pie.

I'm not sure about Amazon, whether they're their own distributor or if they acquire it from Ingram or someone else.

As for the x6 multiplier, that's about right. It's usually the difference between "circulation" vs. "subscription" (the former uses the multiplier). For example, if there's six of you in a family, most likely one of you only buys the newspaper and passes it around. This is what the multiplier is for. It's usually utilized more for periodicals rather than books, although books also have a pass around rate.

 

[Hussar]

Y'know, I hear the chicken entrails work about as accurately as well.

Perhaps we should try tea leaves? Careful, might see a grim.

I hear a dog bark at the full moon tonight, that means that 4e is a failure apparently.

Good grief.

 

[Ycore Rixle]

Interesting. I think you might have typed in Monster Manual's numbers for Open Grave (unless they really did do identical numbers, which sure would speak well for Open Grave!).

 

[evilref]

Ingram figures are notoriously inaccurate and I don't know anyone in the industry who relies on them.

While I don't have access to the figures in my current position, I know in the past i;ve found Ingram's numbers to be inaccurate both in terms of what they'd bought from us (the mainstream, traditional non-rpg publisher I was working for when I had access to our total sales figures) and widely inaccurate compared to the industry at large/total sales figures - certainly no where near a 6x ratio.

Moreover, unless someone from WotC says it's changed, high street bookstores do not make up the majority of their sales figures. Diamond/Alliance distributors ship to game stores, Amazon handles itself etc. As such i'd be unsurprised to hear Ingram makes up less than 5% of their sales.

 

[Wulf Ratbane]

Y'know, I hear the chicken entrails work about as accurately as well.

Perhaps we should try tea leaves? Careful, might see a grim.

I hear a dog bark at the full moon tonight, that means that 4e is a failure apparently.

Good grief.

Nice rebuttal! Burn!

 

[arscott]

It's worth noting that Ingram distributes primarily to independant bookstores. Amazon, Barnes and Noble, Borders, and the like all act as their own distributors, while Game Stores will get their books through a game distributor like Alliance.

So the ingram numbers represent the tiny sliver of folks who chose not to buy from the internet, not to buy from the big book chains, and not to buy from their Friendly Local Gaming Stores, but instead got their PHBs from some place called "Larry's Book Nook" or the like.

I'm honestly surprised that Ingram sold more than 10 PHBs.

 

[Wombat]

One of the largest problems in trying to determine book sales, having briefly worked in the industry, is sales-to-stores as opposed to sales-to-customers.

For example, a New York Times Best Seller does not get that banner because of the number of those books in the hands of customers, but base rather on the number of pre-orders from various stores and chains. As such, the latest R.A. Salvatore novel can have "New York Times Best Seller" printed on it from the first day ... or it can have it on there because a previous book of his was on the list. Equally, the criteria for what makes a Nonfiction Best Seller is vastly lower than a Fiction Best Seller.

Now when you see hot selling books from two years ago in a remainder bin ... well, that is due to over-purchasing. Maybe that "best seller" didn't go over as well as anticipated and now you have blow a $30 hard cover out the door for $5.

Book sales are difficult to calculate because different groups use different criteria -- a publisher may base this on "number sent to stores" while a stores may base this on "number of copies sold new" (as opposed to remaindered or given away or whatever).

So, yeah, numbers a tricksy things...

 

[Knight Otu]

Y'know, I hear the chicken entrails work about as accurately as well.

Perhaps we should try tea leaves? Careful, might see a grim.

I hear a dog bark at the full moon tonight, that means that 4e is a failure apparently.

Good grief.

Are you saying this is just sales numerology?

 

[Treebore]

Even if Ingrams numbers suck the OP does raise a real good question, what does WOTC mean in their court documents by "Core Rule Books"? We assume they mean the PH, DMG, and MM, but if they actually mean pretty much the whole line? Well, that would change the "picture" of WOTC dominance even more drastically than it did when we discovered that WOTC serves no where near "6 Million D&D gamers World Wide".

So if their "Core Books" do include pretty much their entire line, that would put WOTC sales much closer in line with Paizo sales.

So knowing exactly what definition WOTC used in that court document is rather important.