Interesting statement from a WizO on the D&D forum:

[ssampier]

Good pic p) but WotC has said in the past that 4e will be released before a "3.75e" or "3.5e Revised" will be released. Not to say that either of those possibilities are impossible, but that is infact what they have stated in the past.

I guess I'll join the 4.0 conspiracy nuts.

 

[DragonLancer]

Yes, there is, because plans can change. It doesn't happen often with Wizards of the Coast, but it has happened - they've had to push books back from their original release date, like Ghostwalk; they've quietly cancelled some announced books, like d20 Spectaculars; they've even put together at least one book in less than their usual leisurely (for this industry) time frame because of a hole in their schedule, like Dragon Magic.

Look at smaller companies in the industry (they're all much smaller): there are dozens of companies which never release books they've announced, push books further and further back on the schedule, rush books out the door faster than they should have been, et cetera.

You are right. I didn't say anything about giving a release date though. What I am referring to though is giving your customers a heads up on what is being planned for the near future.

Ok, I'll give you an example. About a fortnight before Cityscape was released, there was a post about it on the NG forums, asking Ari for some info on what was going to be in the book. Ari couldn't say anything because of an NDA.

When theres only a few weeks before the release of a product, why not drum up the interest by giving potential buyers some info on the product?

I'll admit that they are not harming sales, but they could drive up the interest by allowing some of that info out.

All of these things are usually done for a reason, which usually involves money, but all of them damage the consumer's confidence in and loyalty to the company. How many people playing Buffy and Angel are upset that Eden Studios delayed certain sourcebooks for a long time and then ended up losing the license? How many Palladium gamers are bitter about certain sourcebooks that were announced over and over again for years - were even known to have been delivered in manuscript to the company by the author - and never, ever released?

I can't speak for Palladium as I have not had much experience with their products. As for a license, well, you can't ever dictate that you will always have that license (any idea why Eden lost the rights to Buffy/Angel?), so thats a different kettle of fish IMO.

 

[Varianor Abroad]

What if Wizards is evaluating putting more money into DDM instead of 4E?

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

(any idea why Eden lost the rights to Buffy/Angel?)

My read on it was that Fox had an unreasonable idea of how much the rights were worth.

Hell, if it means we get all the finished Buffy supplements (other than Welcome to Sunnydale, obviously) with the serial numbers filed off, I'm all for it.

 

[BOZ]

that's actually a pretty good point. i do remember that when going from 1E-2E, and from 2E-3E, there were surveys about which aspects of the game people liked and which ones they didn't. if there hasn't been such an animal yet, i don't think 4E is very far along in the planning stages.

 

[delericho]

When theres only a few weeks before the release of a product, why not drum up the interest by giving potential buyers some info on the product?

They already do this, via their website and Dragon magazine. But, not surprisingly, Wizards want to be the ones in control of the information that is released. It is their information, after all.

 

[delericho]

If Wizards announced today that DnD 4.0 were to come out at Winter Fantasy 08 you can almost count on there being reduced sales on DnD supplements (especially class books) through out the 4th quarter (and maybe 3rd quarter) of 07. This would be because many players/dms would refuse to pay $30+ a month on rules that might become obsolete (especially if Wizards announces the end of the OGL and SRD).

All true. I would expect that the day they announce 4e (whatever the release date), they essentially kill sales of all remaining 3.X products, except perhaps for some adventures (and perhaps short adventures, at that).

I'm still hopeful of an announcement a year in advance of the release, and I'm still expecting a GenCon release. My current guess is a 2008 release, but I'm gradually becoming less confident of that as time presses on.

 

[DaveMage]

What if Wizards is evaluating putting more money into DDM instead of 4E?

I suppose it depends on where DDM is in the so-called "product life cycle".

 

[JVisgaitis]

There is one reason why they would hold that information secret: Profit.

That's partly it. Wizards makes the market though. The day 4e is announced I'll be greatly surprised if there isn't a huge dip in 3rd party d20 products. Also, one would have to think they have this sort of thing planned into their releases. Print runs will be significantly less on the last 3e products, spending on advertising would be way down, etc.

 

[philreed]

The day 4e is announced I'll be greatly surprised if there isn't a huge dip in 3rd party d20 products.

You mean it hasn't found the bottom yet?