Interesting thought on everything going on

[Ahrimon]

I'm cross posting this from WotC's site in the future releases section because I think it represents an awesome theory about what WotC is planning.

The original thread is here.

Heres my theory for the new WotC business model.

Facts
• WotC cancelled most of the upcoming book content: Sword and Spell, Heroic Tier, etc.
• WotC cancelled the monthly compilation in magazine format: each article will now be separate.
• The Research & Development department is now completely responsible for balancing all the content of articles.

My explanation
• WotC will instead publish all of the content from the cancelled books as separate D&DI online articles.
• Later, WotC will compile these articles as hardcover books, by theme.

Advantages of the new publication process
• WotC gives the best and newest content to D&DI online subscribers.
• D&DI becomes valuable.
• Online subscribers will use the content of the articles and detect if there is any need for further errata with regard to mechanics andor flavor.
• Once online players have fully vetted an online article, and it achieves a stable form, WotC will compile it along with articles having a similar theme as a hardcover book.
• The new hardcover books will be extremely high quality, with content and form that has undergone extensive scrutiny and playtesting for many months by many different kinds of D&D players.
• D&DI articles become the venue for new, fresh, and exciting content. Hardcover books become the venue for a stable, polished, and robust 'core'.

It is a brilliant strategy.

 

[AbdulAlhazred]

I'm cross posting this from WotC's site in the future releases section because I think it represents an awesome theory about what WotC is planning.

The original thread is here.

Actually, if you go D&D Product Lineup Changes FAQ you find a very interesting little FAQ in which THIS appears

Q: Why have the Class Compendium: Heroes of Sword and Spell, Mordenkainen's Magnificent Emporium and Hero Builder's Handbook been removed from the calendar?

A: We are constantly striving to remain conscious of the way our fans consume our content. We felt that the material in these titles would best be presented in other ways and we have plans to make it available in the future.

Basically I agree with Haldrik. I think they've pretty well made a decision not to release any but the most core and thus likely to sell well material in physical form anymore. They may still release compilations (annuals) and selected products now and then, but I think the main strategy is going to be DDI all the way. Just churn out lots of bite sized articles that provide tons of options and whatnot. If DDI supports itself and the core books make money (because they have DDI support) then they don't NEED to keep putting out tons of splat books and whatnot that almost always at best make a small profit. Those books were really loss leaders for the core books anyway.

 

[Hadrian the Builder]

In addition to the above ideas, WOTC might also be able to transition AWAY from traditional publishing and focus on digital content. Based on clickthough rates and the degree of reader response on their articles, they can selectively publish only the most compelling and profitable work.

And with a decreased emphasis on book publishing, they can produce more profitable accessories, such as tiles, token and those new cards they've got.

 

[UnknownAtThisTime]

I agree with the OP, and on it's face, that is not so bad.

However, I think the OTHER shoe is an increase on migrating play online as well. As such, support for products that do not promote online play will also be reduced. (ie minis, maps, tokens, even published booklet adventures.)

Clearly, my opinion is entirely speculative, and I grant it does no jive with WotCs apparent goal to get people playing together vias things like Encounters.

 

[MrMyth]

A good theory, but I'm not sure. I don't think the first Dragon Annual sold all that well. Problem is, once DDI subscribers already have that content, why bother to buy it again in book format?

I know - don't we already have that with the compendium? But currently the delay in content entering the compendium gives an incentive to buy the printed books, plus the presence of elements like fluff (and occasional rules) that don't make it into the compendium.

With this, on the other hand, the books will never have anything new to offer, and won't have the incentive of being the first release of the material.

I can see it working for the really exceptional articles - compiling all the Codex of Betrayal articles or stuff like that. But there usually aren't enough of any one theme to fill a full book, and I just can't see the books selling well enough in this format to be worthwhile.

No, I suspect WotC has some other plan in mind, though I've got no clue as to what. Maybe DDXP will reveal more...

 

[Aberzanzorax]

I actually think this would be a pretty great idea.

However, my concern is that it's such a great idea, and yet they're being so silent on what they're doing.

If they were doing this, why not just tell us all? It sure would restore/maintain some customer confidence.

 

[AbdulAlhazred]

My guess would be they aren't 100% sure themselves exactly what physical vs electronic products they want to put out. They obviously want to go in a reasonably profitable direction where the game can grow and make money. That could involve putting out some products that aren't particularly lucrative in and of themselves and they're going to have to figure that out.

In other words if you are basically making your cash off of DDI and maybe 'core' books you have to decide what other physical products you have to make available in order for that to happen or to maximize the sales of those profitable goods and services. Maybe you have to sell some tiles, adventures, or whatever so that people will keep playing and thus subscribing and buying core books. It just gets tricky. Is it worth losing $10k on a tile set if maybe it gets you 500 new DDI subscribers? Probably, but it is always hard to work out exact cause and effect there. The game needs to keep 'living' but what is the appropriate amount of effort for that? Does Encounters bring in lots of new players (or keep existing ones) that get DDI and if so how much physical product support has to exist for Encounters to work?

I don't think we're going to get any clear simple answers to what is going to happen going forward because it seems like the game is evolving to a new business model and nobody can be sure how that will work.

 

[DEFCON 1]

I don't think we're going to get any clear simple answers to what is going to happen going forward because it seems like the game is evolving to a new business model and nobody can be sure how that will work.

Exactly Abdul. It's a new age for WotC and the D&D brand. And which is why those people who keep asking for more timely updates feel like they are being left out in the cold... because things at WotC are probably changing month to month, week to week, and day to day as ideas are generated, beta tests are compiled, and sales numbers arrive. And they learned a long time ago that anything that is announced ahead of time is treated by the public like a stone monument than cannot be changed, because if it is then they go apoplectic. Even the monthly Content Calendar caused them nothing but grief as people would freak out when a column got moved.

So right now... as their game and brand is in a state of flux... they know to just work as hard as they can to produce material that will be good for the long-term health of the game and trust that as this information gets parsed to the gameplaying public as it gets released... it will inspire them to continue, return, or start playing the game.

 

[Mengu]

One thing they may be trying to do is increase the value of DDI, so people who unsubscribed for a variety of reasons might come back.

Once they have the infrastructure, additional subscriptions cost them just about nothing, and are a substantial steady monthly income that's a lot easier to budget around, than books and their release schedules.

I half expect the monthly subscription fees to go up, but I don't think that announcement will come until they see an actual increase in subscriptions.

 

[DEFCON 1]

One thing they may be trying to do is increase the value of DDI, so people who unsubscribed for a variety of reasons might come back.

I think you've nailed it right on the head.

Poor book sales probably slightly concern them at each treasurer's meeting depending on the book. But massive subscription drop-offs are probably the most frightening thing for them right now. And after the Character Builder debacle probably resulted in more cancelled subscriptions than any other time in DDI's existence... they really discovered which side of their bread was buttered, and came to the correct conclusion that they HAD to make DDI better or more worthwhile if they hoped to maintain that profit stream.

Announcing the VTT and Monster Tool betas was probably a quick staunch of the CB wound... but the continuous bleed of complaints of poor Dragon and Dungeon content needed to be taken care of too. And if moving printed book content over to the digital magazines made those magazines more worthwhile and more likely to hold subscriptions in place... it was probably a good trade-off for them. And they and we will see over the next few months if subscription fees offset loss of printed book sales.

It'll be interesting to watch.