I said they would be reasonably close and balanced.
No they won't. Not in play they won't. They may be "balanced" on your character sheet when you are not playing the game; but when you start playing you can throw that out the window.
It will be more of a reasonable balance than 4d6dl almost every time
No it won't. Not usually. Generally your abilities have little affect on overall game balance when comparing the performance of one PC versus the performance of another PC.
If two characters are actually "close" and "reasonable" in play it is not because of their array. It is because their choices, the DMs rulings and the dice thrown in play just happened to result in the characters' performance being close and that is a rare thing indeed.
. Your "not very significant" is just funny. Someone with an 18 or two and nothing lower than a 14 vs someone with a high of 14 (if that) and everything lower is going to have a big impact on potential effectiveness
Potential effectiveness is not the same as actual effectiveness and has little to do with balance in play.
. I just rolled up 10 groups of 5 to get 9, 7, 11, 4, 13, 10 and 9, 13, 13, 15, 15, 18. I find it hard to believe that characters generated from both are going to be in the same ballpark.
They won't be in the same ball park in play, but even if the scores were exactly the same they still would not be in the same ballpark in play.
In many games the PC with the lower array (9, 7, 11, 4, 13, 10) will outperform the PC with the higher array (9, 13, 13 15, 15, 18) and belief has nothing to do with it
If you use 4d6dl you will get significant imbalance on a regular basis.
You get significant imbalance regardless of ability scores and it happens in just about every single session.
Two PCs with the exact same ability scores, playing the exact same class and race with the exact same choices for weapons, spells, backgrounds, feats and skills will still typically be imbalanced in play in every single session of a campaign.
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