D&D (2024) Is the 5E player base going to split?

[Campbell]

If it splits you will see an uptick in Pathfinder2e. I already sense an uptick on Pathfinder2e coming anyway now that the full potential of the system is on display.

I doubt it. Those who feel disenfranchised are unlikely to find much solace in Pathfinder Second Edition. When it comes to a more socially conscious approach to lore and designing races/ancestries to be able to work well for pretty much any class Pathfinder Second Edition and 5e are following similar trendlines. I happen to prefer Paizo's solutions to those design problems, but I do not think most of the people who feel 5e is going in a different direction then they would like are going to find Paizo more receptive to their desires.

 

[Reynard]

The company has a dead game.

Does it?

 

[Reynard]

I doubt it. Those who feel disenfranchised are unlikely to find much solace in Pathfinder Second Edition. When it comes to a more socially conscious approach to lore and designing races/ancestries to be able to work well for pretty much any class Pathfinder Second Edition and 5e are following similar trendlines. I happen to prefer Paizo's solutions to those design problems, but I do not think most of the people who feel 5e is going in a different direction then they would like are going to find Paizo more receptive to their desires.

Why do you think those are the primary issues, as opposed to the way 5E appears to be flattening monsters even more and other changes?

 

[payn]

I doubt it. Those who feel disenfranchised are unlikely to find much solace in Pathfinder Second Edition. When it comes to a more socially conscious approach to lore and designing races/ancestries to be able to work well for pretty much any class Pathfinder Second Edition and 5e are following similar trendlines. I happen to prefer Paizo's solutions to those design problems, but I do not think most of the people who feel 5e is going in a different direction then they would like are going to find Paizo more receptive to their desires.

I agree, though I think an interest may arise because of the differences. Many folks are just getting started with 5E. After nearly a decade, they might be ready to try something different.

 

[Yora]

Does it?

Well, if it does not produce any goods to sell, that's pretty dead to me.
Even if they continue to sell of remaining stock for a while.

 

[Reynard]

Well, if it does not produce any goods to sell, that's pretty dead to me.
Even if they continue to sell of remaining stock for a while.

But is that the case with 5E?

 

[James Gasik]

For awhile it seemed that way, but it looks like they're about to pick up the pace on releases. When you have few books coming out every year, you need to make sure more new people are getting on board constantly.

It may be that they now think they have everyone they're going to get, so it's time to start dropping content like mad. Hence all the discussion about more campaign settings.

Nobody is going to be forced to grab every setting, so you might avoid "book glut" that way. And of course, the settings that sell the most will get the most books.

 

[Reynard]

For awhile it seemed that way, but it looks like they're about to pick up the pace on releases. When you have few books coming out every year, you need to make sure more new people are getting on board constantly.

It may be that they now think they have everyone they're going to get, so it's time to start dropping content like mad. Hence all the discussion about more campaign settings.

Nobody is going to be forced to grab every setting, so you might avoid "book glut" that way. And of course, the settings that sell the most will get the most books.

Nothing I have read anywhere has suggested 5E is nearing a life cycle end, which probably amounts mostly to a strong suggestion that the Anniversary Edition books are not going to mark a particularly serious shift. For me, that is more encouragement to transition over to LevelUp or even over to PF2, but for others it is going to alleviate some of that edition change stress we were talking about.

 

[James Gasik]

Not a life cycle end, more like a shift in how it develops from this point on?

 

[Reynard]

Not a life cycle end, more like a shift in how it develops from this point on?

Probably. One thing I do think is in the offing, though, is that there is an opportunity for a Zeelennial friendly game to appear and gather a strong user base. This space is pretty old at this point, and watching reddit and other, younger spaces shows a hunger for some things no iteration of D&D is likely to provide and still be called D&D: GM-less, prep-less play with a strong focus on permissive storytelling and freedom of choice. Someone is going to find the right combo and it is going to be White Wolf all over again. That's not a dig against anyone, I just think it is what happens when gamers "grow up" (irrespective of age; I mean relative to how long they have been playing their introductory game). Of course, predicting exactly what that is going to be is the million dollar challenge.