Is this what you went through with 3rd Edition?

[WheresMyD20]

I agree with that as well. It was time to release a new edition.
And, despite me lack of contact with people who really care for it, I'm certain that a solid majority will switch simply because it is the new shiny.

And I'm certain that they can increase cash flow with anything new compared to the heavily plowed field of 3E.

I just think they choose poorly which new field to plant in.

Well said. I'm all for a new edition, since I'm not a fan of 3e. Unfortunately, I'm not too thrilled about the direction that 4e is heading.

 

[Wisdom Penalty]

It was time to release a new edition...I'm certain that a solid majority will switch simply because it is the new shiny.

Partially correct.

I bet existing gamers will switch because it's a better system (for them).

I bet (hope) new gamers will join D&D because it's new and shiny and looks cool to them.

 

[BryonD]

Partially correct.

I bet existing gamers will switch because it's a better system (for them).

I bet (hope) new gamers will join D&D because it's new and shiny and looks cool to them.

Partially correct? Mind linking me to your fountain of knowledge?

Some of both will happen but *I* bet you will be surprised by how many existing gamers take a pass on this one. Not a majority, but a significant number unlike any switch before. Partly due to design philosophy and partly due to the environment for the staying with the existing game being better than any change ever in the past.

As for the new gamers, I'll believe any significant effect there when I see it. Gamers are gamers largely by nature. (converts happen for certain, for example: my wife, but those are the exception) The steady trickle of new gamers will continue pretty much unchanged, or more accurately, the slow steady decline in the rate will continue. IMO, 4e will become been there done that more quickly and the retention of the "try-it-and-see" newcomers will actually decline a bit. But we will see. I really think a lot of what made D&D different has been sucked out and it will be to close to just any other game.

I expect that very soon 4e will be claimed to be the dawn of a new age. But in a few years the conventional wisdom will be that the digital age was simply to much and despite their awesome effort, there was simply nothing that could be done to draw a solid portion of the new generation to a P&P game.

 

[Hussar]

BryonD - I completely agree with the "wait and see" approach. The next year should be very interesting. I think that the majority of gamers will switch over. What will be very interesting is to see how much the RPGA gets pushed, particularly over the DDI, and whether or not the new rules will appeal to a broader base of gamer.

My take is how much will the new game appeal to women. If they can start drawing women into D&D, the way games like Vampire did, that's a huge growth opportunity that D&D has never managed before.

 

[pming]

Hiya.

I haven't read through all of these. That said... I never switched to 3e. Actually, I never switched to 2e. But I *do* think that the 3e - 4e is a different kind of switch. Now, personally, I don't find 3e all that 'related' to 1e/2e except in names. I don't like 3e. I *really* don't like what 4e seems to be shaping up to be either. The shift between 1e/2e and 3e is almost nothing when compared to the shift between 3e and 4e.

Thing is, I don't think it's going to be the rules changes from 3e - 4e that are going to keep 3e'ers from switching; I think it's the 3e'ers 17 metric tonnes of d20 books that will exert an almost gravimetric pull, thus keeping the 3e'er from switching. If not for the sheer number of books they won't be able to use (easily), but because of the $$$$ investment they put into the collection as well as the thought of "Gee, now I have to find somewhere to put these 3e books! Gaaaa!".

No, I think 4e 'core' books might sell well because of the novelty. It's new and people want to see what it looks and feels like. After that, however, and I think the immedecrese sales of 4e stuff is going to be such a shock to the WotC/Hasbro system it's heart will stop.

...goes back to his BECMI and 1e/Hackmaster books...