D&D 5E (2024) Is WOTC done publishing campaigns?

[mamba]

I'll use AI for this one...

I’d prefer a dictionary, but ultimately the AI will just use that anyway…

By your definition, is every fan a player or are there fans that are not players? Is every player a fan? Is someone who never played the TTRPG but enjoyed BG3 a fan?

 

[GreyLord]

there are more than 5M sold PHBs, and that ignores digital copies, which probably almost double the total by now. For someone always asking for data, you sure are careless with the one you use

5 Million of the current edition? Or 5 million of 5e? Indications seem to say that 4.8 (I should indicate this is the number I saw, I cannot seem to find the corroborating evidence online to back this up currently though) million 5e PHB's were sold as per the last hard evidence we saw (perhaps more now, though there is a massive amount of overlap with 2014 5e and 2024 5e PHB's sold).

You may have more updated information with the hard numbers? That would be good and nice to see.

 

[GreyLord]

I’d prefer a dictionary, but ultimately the AI will just use that anyway…

By your definition, is every fan a player or are there fans that are not players? Is every player a fan? Is someone who never played the TTRPG but enjoyed BG3 a fan?

There are fans that are not players of D&D. There are those that bought the rulebooks (4e would be a great example of this) that are definately NOT fans of D&D. Many of the fans (which were more numerous previously) would be those who were avid fans of books series such as Dragonlance or the Forgotten Realms, but never played the game itself.

Current fans would be those who were either actively engaged in the D&D community in some way (digitally, social media, convention goers) or supporting it in some fashion (even if they don't playing, they are buying books, rules, etc).

Fans in general will equal some sort of ability to profit off of them (Fans = Money) IMO. Not all of them, but with an active product like D&D, most who are actual fans will be willing to spend money on something, or if they go for something free, be able to help generate money (for example, even free accounts on beyond normally end up with at least one person who is going to spend money who is connected to that group).

We aren't talking about the guy who played D&D back in the 80s and hasn't thought about it in 40 years, tossed his books, and has no connection to it anymore, we are talking about those who are excited and enthusiastic when they see something with D&D...you know,,,fans.

 

[mamba]

I'm not certain I follow your logic...at all...but...okay?

I noticed, since it is counter to yours…

Let’s see if you can follow this… Fans are not necessarily also players, agreed? Not every D&D player has a DDB account, agreed? The number of people having DDB accounts but never played D&D is negligible, agreed?

Then the number of D&D players over the 50 years is an upper limit to DDB accounts, and one that is significantly higher given that DDB was not around for more than half of those 50 years

 

[mamba]

5 Million of the current edition? Or 5 million of 5e?

5M+ of the 2014 books

You may have more updated information with the hard numbers? That would be good and nice to see.

not sure what hard evidence you saw, WotC does not really release hard sales numbers.

The closest I have is Bookscan saying it had sold 1.5M PHBs by mid 2023 and that number being estimated to be around 1/3 to 1/4 of actual sales. Add to that about another year of sales and you are at over 5M, probably around 6M, physical sales. This does not even include digital sales, which are the majority of sales by now

 

[GreyLord]

I noticed, since it is counter to yours…

Let’s see if you can follow this… Fans are not necessarily also players, agreed? Not every D&D player has a DDB account, agreed?

I can agree to that

The number of people having DDB accounts but never played D&D is negligible, agreed?

Disagree with this one. I know several that have never played D&D but have DDB accounts for example, just in my personal circle.

Then the number of D&D players over the 50 years is an upper limit to DDB accounts, and one that is significantly higher given that DDB was not around for more than half of those 50 years

So, If I understand you correctly, Your assumption is that there are more fans out there than those that have DDB accounts. I would not have a problem with that idea.

In fact the evidence I am looking for even allows for that (for example, if there are 80 million fans, I could possibly see that with 40 million DDB accounts). (Another example is one that I put down where you have a 10-15 million player base, with an upper limit of around 25 - 40 million fans).

How much higher the number of fans than accounts is highly questionable, which is why you have number crunchers and actuaries when evaluating risk into an investment. The PR is too easy for people to bite off on, which is why you utilize more comparison numbers, relationships in those numbers, and try to see what the actual figures are rather than what the hype machines are trying to feed you.

 

[GreyLord]

5M+ of the 2014 books


not sure what hard evidence you saw, WotC does not really release hard sales numbers.

The closest I have is Bookscan saying it had sold 1.5M PHBs by mid 2023 and that number being estimated to be around 1/3 to 1/4 of actual sales. Add to that about another year of sales and you are at over 5M, probably around 6M, physical sales. This does not even include digital sales, which are the majority of sale by now

Addendum: They infrequently release numbers publicly.

Edit: Something that greatly muddies the waters however, with the 2024 release is that a great many of those sales were overlaps. This means that for the first few months (if not the first year) the majority of the books sold were to those who already had the 2014 version and were already players, rather than new blood and new players coming in. Trying to figure out how many new players, vs. returning players buying is a very tricky business.

 

[FitzTheRuke]

I know several that have never played D&D but have DDB accounts for example, just in my personal circle.

... What? Why would anyone have a DDB account if they don't play D&D?

 

[HatWearingFool]

So, by that logic, D&D Beyond should have at LEAST over 100 million Beyond accounts...right?

It's anecdotal... but I know a lot of people that play 5e. I know 1 person with a DND Beyond account. That person isn't me. I currently play in 2-3 games a week and I don't have an account. I don't think much of the player base has a Beyond account.

Edit: even ignoring all the adults I know that play. My kid’s school dnd club has 6 groups, let’s say 30 kids altogether. None of them own any books or have beyond accounts. All the groups start the borderlands starter sets this week. Those were purchased by a few adults.

At the community centre my son plays at weekly they have 6 groups over two nights. And those groups are big, but all the supplies are provided by adults that run those groups for the kids. Again none of them beyond accounts.

All of these kids are fans and avid players, but not current purchasers. My kid did buy a dice tray but otherwise just uses my books as needed. I did buy him the borderlands starter set to run for his group at school.

To me D&D scene is way bigger than it was when I was kid playing in the late 80’s and 90’s. I struggled to find people to play with. Now every school in the city has clubs running multiple groups, all the community youth centres run games multiple nights, I’m in 3 games, and I know of a adult club in my small city with adults averages between 50-60 people.

All anecdotal I know, but now that I think about it the size of the player base in my small city is astounding… especially compared to how hard it was to find a game in my youth.

Truly living in a golden age.

 

[mamba]

Addendum: They infrequently release numbers publicly.

agreed

Edit: Something that greatly muddies the waters however, with the 2024 release is that a great many of those sales were overlaps.

they would be, but my numbers are intentionally 2014 only, so there is no overlap with 2024