Let's Spitball a Hypothetical Situation---WOTC Discontinues D&D--What Happens?

[joethelawyer]

NOT WHAT YOU WISH WOULD HAPPEN,

but what does actually happen, based on real world economics, cause and effect, past experience in the industry, and your real world business experiences.

while sitting here reading various posts regarding gleemax, the 3pp's not signing up for 4e, the unlikely future of DDI, etc., i have been doing this in my head, and thought it would be more interesting in a group. we have a lot of smart experienced business people here.

let's make it like an MBA case analysis project. here's the hypothetical:

in a few months, maybe a couple more 4e products are released from WOTC. not too many 3pp's release anything for 4e, or even say they will. DDI sputters out some crappy product no one is thrilled with. before the next earnings conference call with investors and analysts, Hasbro decides that while DnD as a brand has value, it is not making the money projected or demanded by hasbro. hasbro discontinues the DDI initiative as a way to appease investors and analysts. Gleemax is dead. there is a halt put on all future 4e product releases until the financial situation is re-evaluated.

Code for: we need time to determine what, if any, money we can make with this property. does hasbro:

1. sell it off;
2. scale down production to just books supporting the pnp aspect of D&D, but producing a less than in the past, or less than originally projected;
3. use the property to make money licensing just the name to games/movies etc., and no longer support the pnp aspect.


with regard to each of those 3 outcomes, what does the industry look like in 1, 3 and 5 years from now with regard to:

1. 3rd party publishers;
2. amount of people playing 4e vs. 3e, paizo, true20, etc;
3. the pdf publishing industry;
4. mergers and aquisitions between various 3pp's;
5. collaborative efforts an cross-platorm support between 3pp's;
6. inependent contractors writing for 3pp's;
7. the official dnd branded product line;

and any other factors, outcomes or situations you think might reasonably develop.

looking forward to reading your responses.

 

[Treebore]

Paizo becomes the shiznit.

 

[howandwhy99]

WotC and 4E need to succeed whether you like their games or their practices regardless. There is no successor and if they dumped D&D RPGs as a hobby would decline. Not at first, but the dollars customers spent on product would decline greatly. And with fewer products selling fewer players would remain active. Sure, some companies would try and fill the gap, but many RPGers play just to play D&D. And they'd leave like a wave just as they arrived with 3E.

 

[jadrax]

Something very simmiler just happened with WFRP, which GW discontinuing producing it in house. They sold the rights to continue making the game under licence to FFG within a month.

 

[AllisterH]

Hasbro does not sell off properties. EVER.

Seriously, Hasbro is famous for simply letting a property lie for several years and then producing a nostalgia update.

What would happen if the D&D RPG was actually cancelled?

The market loses a significant member of players. PDF publishers like Paizo et al can probably survive based on what's left, but it wouldn't last as the number of players steadily shrink.

 

[jadrax]

Hasbro actually licences its properties all the time, especially in print media. That is why there are so many G.I. Joe and He-man comics and books.

 

[Treebore]

Man! I thought I played RPG's because they are so much fun to play, not because it was labeled D&D.

I would like to think I would have gotten into RPG's whether D&D existed or not.

I'm wrong?

I don't think so. The people who got me into RPG's got me into RPG's, not just D&D.

Maybe the market would be smaller, but I doubt that too. There are some darn good RPG's out there!

 

[AllisterH]

Hasbro actually licences its properties all the time, especially in print media. That is why there are so many G.I. Joe and He-man comics and books.

License != Sell-off

The OP had sell-off as a possible choice but I just wanted to make sure everyone knew, this simply wasn't an option.

furthermore, again, Hasbro isn't going to decide this. I keep seeing this and yet nobody challenges it.

Why do we assume that the RPG is a significant portion of WOTC's revenue?

I've always assumed and seen reports detailing the same that for WOTC, it goes,

MTG
Miniatures
Books

and then finally, the D&D RPG. The RPG department itself makes nowhere near the profit that either the books or miniatures makes. Which makes sense if you think about it....


(Personally, I wonder where things like Avalon Hill and Heroscape fall. The funny thing is that many AH and Heroscape fans apparently love what WOTC is doing with those properties.)

 

[jadrax]

License != Sell-off

The OP had sell-off as a possible choice but I just wanted to make sure everyone knew, this simply wasn't an option.

I know, it looked like you where replying to my point directly above your post, if that is the not the case I apologise.

 

[hewligan]

It is a small hobby, in the grand scheme of things, and as such a few small companies such as Green Ronin, White Wolf, and Paizo, would be able to create sufficiently innovative products to keep those of us already in the hobby happy for a few decades. Over time it would probably die out, until perhaps only a small cottage industry remained.

This is assuming that the rights were not sold.