Let's Spitball a Hypothetical Situation---WOTC Discontinues D&D--What Happens?

[AtomicPope]

It may all be pointless speculation, but my only real point is that no industry is completely reliant one one brand to the point that the death of said brand will destroy the industry. If DC and Marvel both closed up shop tomorrow, we'd still have comic books. If Microsoft closed, we'd still have computers. If Ford and GM go under, we'll still have cars. If D&D is gone, we'll still have TRPGs.

Took the words right out of my mouth.


People seem to forget that we're living in the information age where education is free (public libraries and teh intarwebs). The proliferation of skills inherently breaks monopolies. As a result, it becomes increasingly difficult for a single source to maintain market dominance, particularly if the dominance is based solely on immaterial goods such as a game mechanic. Toffler had correctly theorized that the decentralization of information (knowledge) as a tool of power will create prosumers and fragment mass production. As gamers we're seeing this now in the form of 3rd party, PDF RPG publishing. Small companies that are able to create products that have little to no shelf space or overstock.

However, industry leaders are not without options. Borders Books is making a move to become the first industry leader in self-publishing and print-on-demand to compensate. They hope to combat the issue by reducing overstock entirely, thus reducing the cost considerably. By virtually eliminating wasteful spending through print-on-demand start up costs will decrease, theoretically lowering the product cost allowing for greater profit by volume. Whether or not this works remains to be seen.

With regards to D&D and WotC I see no difference. I don't consider 3rd party Publishers as a valid measure to the success of a product. Third party publishers merely piggy-back. If they're capable of creating a competative product they would have done so long ago. Look at White Wolf and 2e. Second Edition was the death rattle of D&D, and there exists a massive amounts of statistical information to back it - by WotC. What happened? Second Edition fragmented the class system with Kits and Specialist Wizards. All classes became far more generic, losing class features (no more Monks, Barbarians, Thief Acrobats, Cavaliers, Illusionists). They also mass produced the "Complete Garbage" series. So what happened?

The RPG industry boomed as TSR failed. White Wolf spear headed an innovation in roleplaying with the story teller system. It appealed to new and old gamers alike. Champions, GURPS, WHFRP, and Palladium bloomed in the wake of D&D. It's basic economics. If a market exists and products can be distributed, the audience will purchase. The only thing standing in the way of an RPG boom was the sluggish AD&D juggernaut. D&D couldn't afford television ads anymore. When they can't market as strongly anymore the other companies won't get stone-walled.

We're seeing a backlash today. What happens to the future of D&D because of 4th edition remains to be seen. It doesn't look nearly as grim as many have forecasted based on initial online sales alone. Should WotC create another D&D debacle the RPG community will survive. In fact, as many have already pointed out, it could experience another renaissance. Will 3pp pick up the ball that WotC dropped? I don't think so. If they could they would have already. Most likely we'll see another new innovator, or an already major RPG company (such as White Wolf) capture the lion's share of the community.

But anything can happen because gamers are impulse spenders. RPG could pejorate into a cosplay card game that combines the worst elements of LARP and competative, collective card gaming. To be honest, nothing would surprise me.

 

[CountPopeula]

They also mass produced the "Complete Garbage" series. So what happened?

The RPG industry boomed as TSR failed. White Wolf spear headed an innovation in roleplaying with the story teller system.

To be fair, as soon as Vampire took off, White Wolf launched the *book: Garbage series. But yeah, it took a declining interest in D&D for White Wolf and Shadowrun to break out of the pack.

I think the OGL just sort of made it worse for third parties. A bunch sprang up selling dreck, and the market sort of became "Why should I create a new system when i can just use this one, and probably sell more copies."

 

[carmachu]

The market loses a significant member of players. PDF publishers like Paizo et al can probably survive based on what's left, but it wouldn't last as the number of players steadily shrink.

While I agree the pool would shrink, but I doubt your idea of piazo and other 3rd parties wouldnt last.

If hasbro said today, 4e sucks, we're canceling it and there isnt a replacement for years......folks would either keep playing 4e OR Pathfinder would be handed the crown by default. There already is options fo rus that dont wish to move to 4e. If it disappears, there is still plenty of room fo rthe rest of us.

 

[AtomicPope]

To be fair, as soon as Vampire took off, White Wolf launched the *book: Garbage series. But yeah, it took a declining interest in D&D for White Wolf and Shadowrun to break out of the pack.

I think the OGL just sort of made it worse for third parties. A bunch sprang up selling dreck, and the market sort of became "Why should I create a new system when i can just use this one, and probably sell more copies."

Oh I agree about WW's splat books, but there's a difference - it's not D&D. There was no one to say, "This is not Vampire!!!!!!!11111"

From what I've gathered, a gaming product's history interferes with that product's ability to expand or grow. Both were cranking out splat books that were garbage, but only D&D had an illustrious past. We could look at Unearthed Arcana and compare it to Complete Dwarve's Beard Guide. There were countless modules that had to stand toe-to-toe with Forbidden City, Temple of Elemental Evil, and Keep on the Borderlands. Vampire didn't have that. They only had a new core product which was very innovative for its time.

And I agree about the OGL too. It created a sess pool of 3pp to choose from. Until Monty Cook's departure there was little to love in the moors of 3e 3pp. That's not to say there were no shining stars, obviously Privateer Press is the best success story, but the OGL did not allow for quality control from anyone. I feel sorry for the game store owners that picked up so many 3e 3pp because I see those same products collecting dust and taking up shelf space. Anyone could say, "it's a 3.5 product" but WotC couldn't say, "it's garbage." I've always wondered if this was the reason for the GSL. Probably not.

 

[Umbran]

D&D != The Hobby Industry. It isn't even the RPG industry. It's just the 800lb gorilla. It lost it's position once...

I don't think that D&D has ever actually lost the position - in terms of sales and people playing the game, even in the dark later days of 2e D&D was the leader. If someone's got actual sales data that says otherwise...

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

let's make it like an MBA case analysis project. here's the hypothetical:

in a few months, maybe a couple more 4e products are released from WOTC. not too many 3pp's release anything for 4e, or even say they will. DDI sputters out some crappy product no one is thrilled with. before the next earnings conference call with investors and analysts, Hasbro decides that while DnD as a brand has value, it is not making the money projected or demanded by hasbro. hasbro discontinues the DDI initiative as a way to appease investors and analysts. Gleemax is dead. there is a halt put on all future 4e product releases until the financial situation is re-evaluated.

Code for: we need time to determine what, if any, money we can make with this property. does hasbro:

1. sell it off;
2. scale down production to just books supporting the pnp aspect of D&D, but producing a less than in the past, or less than originally projected;
3. use the property to make money licensing just the name to games/movies etc., and no longer support the pnp aspect.


with regard to each of those 3 outcomes, what does the industry look like in 1, 3 and 5 years from now with regard to:

1. 3rd party publishers;
2. amount of people playing 4e vs. 3e, paizo, true20, etc;
3. the pdf publishing industry;
4. mergers and aquisitions between various 3pp's;
5. collaborative efforts an cross-platorm support between 3pp's;
6. inependent contractors writing for 3pp's;
7. the official dnd branded product line;

and any other factors, outcomes or situations you think might reasonably develop.

My first blush analysis of the hypothetical:

Hasbro probably does, in order:

1. Use the property to make money licensing just the name to games/movies etc., and minimally supports the pnp aspect (see below), as long as it is profitable.

2. Scale down production of books supporting the pnp aspect of D&D to probably additions to the core PHB and/or MM.

3) Backtrack to revitalize.

a) Probably seriously reanalyzing the OGL environement vs the GSL environment: what would making the "source code" open again do for the sales of the core game? If the OGL makes better business sense overall, is the game's market share still big enough to make such a switch a rational business decision, or is it too late to revitalize 4Ed by returning to an OGL-type environment.

b) Depending upon the bottom line (and comments above), trying to hold on to do a launch of a 5Ed down the road.

4) Sell off D&D, if possible. Plenty of RPGs have changed hands, its just a matter of finding the right buyer. And don't think it couldn't be at a loss, either- just look at the history of Daimler-Chrysler.

As for the shape of the industry at 1/3/5:

1) Until and unless D&D found a new publisher, the vaccuum caused by the loss of the 800lb gorilla would lead to a change in the overall shape of the industry. Instead of a single market-dominating system and a bunch of also-rans, each publisher and system would have the space to grow.

Consider what happened when Superman was killed by Doomsday. EVERY publisher of superhero comics introduced a "Superman-esque" character if they didn't have one. Those that already did refocused attention upon those characters.

In some cases, those titles really made the company grow (Image's Supreme), or gained them critical acclaim for their storytelling (Comic's Greatest World's Titan).

Similarly, those companies with D&D-esque games would see an increase in sales, depending upon people's edition of choice...Hackmaster, C&C, AU/AE, Pathfinder, etc.

Other companies might jump into the fray via purchase or license...GURPS: D&D? D&D Tri-Stat? Greyhawk, FR, etc. settings for Fantasy HERO?

Regardless, I doubt you'd see the rise of a single company to the position of market leadership that D&D holds today. At worst, you'd see a few of the major companies struggling for supremacy, possibly serially. IOW, less of a virtual monopoly and more of an oligopoly.

Ultimately, however, even if D&D simply faded away for a while, the hobby would remain strong, and eventually, the laws of Supply and Demand would probably dictate that the price for the D&D IP would fall low enough (either through mere depreciation or coupled with inflation) that someone- Hasbro or some buyer they found- would put out a new version of the game...even if it were identical to one of the previous editions (IOW, a pure reprint).

After all, games of lesser sales- Traveller, Battletech, etc.- have switched hands and found to be viable as reprints, at least in the short run.

 

[jadrax]

I don't think that D&D has ever actually lost the position - in terms of sales and people playing the game, even in the dark later days of 2e D&D was the leader. If someone's got actual sales data that says otherwise...

I don't have the data, but I must say it seems unlikely, White Wolf was bringing out an average of two book every week at one point, and as far as I could see, selling them.

 

[CountPopeula]

Oh I agree about WW's splat books, but there's a difference - it's not D&D. There was no one to say, "This is not Vampire!!!!!!!11111"

From what I've gathered, a gaming product's history interferes with that product's ability to expand or grow. Both were cranking out splat books that were garbage, but only D&D had an illustrious past. We could look at Unearthed Arcana and compare it to Complete Dwarve's Beard Guide. There were countless modules that had to stand toe-to-toe with Forbidden City, Temple of Elemental Evil, and Keep on the Borderlands. Vampire didn't have that. They only had a new core product which was very innovative for its time.

And I agree about the OGL too. It created a sess pool of 3pp to choose from. Until Monty Cook's departure there was little to love in the moors of 3e 3pp. That's not to say there were no shining stars, obviously Privateer Press is the best success story, but the OGL did not allow for quality control from anyone. I feel sorry for the game store owners that picked up so many 3e 3pp because I see those same products collecting dust and taking up shelf space. Anyone could say, "it's a 3.5 product" but WotC couldn't say, "it's garbage." I've always wondered if this was the reason for the GSL. Probably not.

You know, Privateer is so amazingly awesome it hurts my head. But trying to remember they started doing D20 books is kind of weird. They make awesome miniatures and they have wargaming rules that are among the best I've ever seen... but it does go to show you, they didn't feel confined by the OGL, they used it to create a presence and used their "political capital" to put out one of the most beautifully simple, yet complex games... ahh, but I digress.

And yeah, the D&D name does sort of... look at the "edition wars" we're all so afraid of. Everyone has an idea of what D&D *IS* and want products that fit their vision. White Wolf didn't run into this until nWoD.

 

[bramadan]

The "correct" answer was given in one of the very early posts.

Hasbro (WotC) would almost certainly do what the UK gaming behemoth did in the similar situation. GW had property rights to WHFRP which they did not want to sell because they made tons of money of selling the tie-ins and related products (novels, war game, minis...). On the other hand the game was a niche success (and no matter what anyone may say 4ed is certainly as much of a niche success as WHFRP was if not a few orders of magnitude bigger) but not enough of a success to make it worth GWs while.

GW licensed to a company that they could rely on to take a good care of the property in both business and artistic sense and then continued to make money of it through licencing and tie-in products. They made sure that FFG can not compete with them in their core areas (minis) and otherwise gave them reasonably free reign.

The only question in this hypothetical scenario is who would WotC (and it would be WotC, make no mistake - commercial death of DnD would not even remotely mean commercial death of WotC) pick as a licensee for the DnDRP property.

I would exclude the possibility of essentially all of the current day 3rd party publishers, with the possible exception of Mongoose, as much to small; not only in the actual capitalization but in reach and scope. FFG and White Wolf would be a serious contenders, but I actually think that it would end up in the hands of Hidden City Games which is the current outfit of Peter Adkinson's who has proven time and again that he is the most capable venture capitalist in the gaming business.

In any case, wheels would keep on turning, people would keep on playing, only possible serious consequence is that we would probably see 5th edition a little bit sooner then we otherwise would, although even that is by no means certain.

 

[Scarbonac]

What happens?

I continue to play my 1e/2e hybrid game (with minor bits yoinked from 3.x and other games) until I die.