Let's Spitball a Hypothetical Situation---WOTC Discontinues D&D--What Happens?

[Keefe the Thief]

I don't have the data, but I must say it seems unlikely, White Wolf was bringing out an average of two book every week at one point, and as far as I could see, selling them.

And? This doesn´t mean anything. Because we don´t know how many of each were printed and sold.

 

[Olgar Shiverstone]

If D&D ever stopped producing for Hasbro, or took a significant downturn, I'd expect them to release 5E well before taking any of the other options mentioned.

 

[jadrax]

And? This doesn´t mean anything. Because we don´t know how many of each were printed and sold.

Well firstly, it is only my opinion I am by no means stating it as a fact, but secondly while it is true that there has been no publicly available, systematic examination of point of sale data, there are still quite a few facts or at least accepted truths out there.

We know from an anonymous Wizard's source that in 1990s there was a real slump, with 6-8 new books* each year selling mostly between 7,000 and 15,000 units, though they varied a bit on either side, depending on the brand and big sellers did still exist, such as the 1992 Forgotten Realms campaign books, that had a print run of 175,000. (As an aside, Average Books for 1980's are listed at 50k to 150k and the 00's at 30k to 60k.) [*figures exclude the core books.]

Now we do not have any real concrete figures for White Wolf, but there print runs would have to be ludicrously low by 80's standards to not be beating that, which the creation of ArtHaus really belays because you do not create a sub-division to create low print run book lines if all you create is low run book lines.

Now at the time admittedly WW claimed to only be number two, but I don't think anyone really realised just how bad the 90s were for TSR, if you look at their big sellers like that Forgotten Realms book and the Players Guide then sales looked healthy, the issue was there was little beside that.

As we are unlikely to ever know for sure, the real question is do you think it is feasible White Wolf sold so many books that they ever overcame AD&D sales, I think in the 90-95 period (after 95 WW sales also slumped massively,) its feasable, YMMV.

 

[CountPopeula]

The "correct" answer was given in one of the very early posts.

Hasbro (WotC) would almost certainly do what the UK gaming behemoth did in the similar situation. GW had property rights to WHFRP which they did not want to sell because they made tons of money of selling the tie-ins and related products (novels, war game, minis...). On the other hand the game was a niche success (and no matter what anyone may say 4ed is certainly as much of a niche success as WHFRP was if not a few orders of magnitude bigger) but not enough of a success to make it worth GWs while.

As my fiancee would say, back up the track, yeah? WHFRP is a spin-off of Warhammer Fantasy Battle, not the other way around. The war game and the minis are the main line. They would not sell the Warhammer setting because WHFRP wasn't doing well any more than WotC would sell Dungeons and Dragons because they weren't selling enough dice. The two situations are completely unrelated. If GW farmed out WFB or WH40K, then it would be comparable.

 

[Waldorf]

I'll tell you what happens. I hang on to my 3.5 books even more tightly, buy up whatever books I still don't have from Amazon and/or eBay, continue to play with my buddies on a weekly basis, and finally run the Age of Worms. Which is to say, nothing in my universe will change. But a crappy edition of D&D will have died in the interim.

 

[CleverNickName]

I'm starting to get a little nervous. It might just be my paranoia, but I've been seeing a lot of "uh-oh, Wizards is in trouble" posts and articles these days, and not just on ENWorld. My opinions of the new edition aside, I am a big fan of WotC and I really want them to do well.

But if the unthinkable should happen, this is what I predict would happen.

The demand for the game would not diminish...people who like roleplaying games will continue to like them, and will continue to play them, and will continue to look for books and dice and minis and whatever else they need.

And as long as there is a demand for a product, there will be an incentive for businesses to provide that need. Dozens of RPGs (and RPG companies) will spring up overnight, competing with each other to fill that demand...some will be good, some will be great, and most will be awful, but eventually one will emerge as the undeniable champion.

In short? Nothing much.

 

[evilref]

I'm starting to get a little nervous. It might just be my paranoia, but I've been seeing a lot of "uh-oh, Wizards is in trouble" posts and articles these days, and not just on ENWorld. My opinions of the new edition aside, I am a big fan of WotC and I really want them to do well.

Don't worry, Wizards just had (and are continuing to have) great sales figures with the release of the core rules and their supplements since then. Anyone saying otherwise is just projecting their wishes.

 

[AtomicPope]

You know, Privateer is so amazingly awesome it hurts my head. But trying to remember they started doing D20 books is kind of weird. They make awesome miniatures and they have wargaming rules that are among the best I've ever seen... but it does go to show you, they didn't feel confined by the OGL, they used it to create a presence and used their "political capital" to put out one of the most beautifully simple, yet complex games... ahh, but I digress.

It's weird for me to. When Eberron was all the rage I looked to Iron Kingdoms as a the grittier grandfather that came and conquered long before. WM and Hordes are simply amazing. I've been playing mini-games for years and they've been able to do something that no other game company has - create a manageable yet cinematic system. When 40k was cinematic (in 2e) a game lasted 4hrs+. Warzone and Necromunda are needlessly complex. But Warmachine has all of the complexity with none of the clunk.

Personally, I want to see Iron Kingdoms as a 4e product. I think it would do well in 4e.

And yeah, the D&D name does sort of... look at the "edition wars" we're all so afraid of. Everyone has an idea of what D&D *IS* and want products that fit their vision. White Wolf didn't run into this until nWoD.

Hehehe, that's why I brought it up. Over on the WW boards there's anti-nWoD hovering jjust a few forums away. It says something about the gamer mentality/immaturity

Don't worry, Wizards just had (and are continuing to have) great sales figures with the release of the core rules and their supplements since then. Anyone saying otherwise is just projecting their wishes.

I was surprised when Amazon sold out its preorders. The word is they sold more 4e core sets than 3e. Hate doesn't pay the bills.

 

[AllisterH]

Yeah. WOTC is in real trouble....

I mean, if D&D tanks, that means their main source of revenue...

Oh wait, they sell a little game called M:TG. Apparently, some game called Duelmasters is doing so well in japan that it actually gets called out by name in that recent Hasbro transcript (given how many properties Hasbro has, exactly how well must it be doing to rate mention?)

Well, if the RPG being the second source of revenue...Oh wait...

They have this game called DDM. Apparently, it ALSO outsells the RPG books easily. Apparently, a lot of people LIKE random collection of miniatures and pushing pieces of plastic around a board......

Well, maybe it is their third source of revenue....Er, doesn't their novel line basically have a license to print cash (seriously, take a walk to your local bookstore, count the number of WOTC published fiction books....the novel department is stomping the RPG department into the ground)....

Well, ok, having their 4th brand tank could cause a shakeup at the company....

Wait...serious question time now. Is D&D the RPG even the 4h biggest source of revenue for WOTC?

They also are in charge of Avalon Hill, Heroscape and Duelmasters....

Yeah, somehow I don't think WOTC is looking for their lifeboats if D&D tanks.

Beside, the Dreamblade fiasco (which they seem to have weathered) and the recent changes to M:TG are WAY more likely to cause problems.