Bill Zebub
“It’s probably Matt Mercer’s fault.”
For any dice mechanic, there is the distribution of the dice results, which typically are linear (e.g. d100), bell-curve (e.g. 3d6) , or some form of long-tailed (e.g. exploding dice). And then there is the mapping of numeric results to the game-world results, which can be varied, but generally look a bit like this
d20 is one of the simplest systems - linear results, target number + criticals. That's why it's good default. The bad thing is that everything is linear, so your chance of a critical is independent of your chance of success, which is not tremendously realistic.
- target number is all you care about
- target number with a potential critical success
- target number with critical success / fumbles
- various target numbers determining degree of success.
Yes, this is one of the things I find very weird about d20, crit on 20: if you need a 19 to hit, then if you do hit, 50% of them will be crits. Completely counterintuitive.
The One Ring is an odd example where there are two separate systems being used at the same time with the same dice roll. One is a simple bell curve where you roll a bunch of dice and compare to a target number to determine success, and the second is where you count the number of 6's rolled on the 6-sided die to determine degree of success, conditional on the first evaluation being a success (there are some extra fiddly bits with rolling 1's and 12's). It should be annoying, but in play I've been quite happy with it, even though I have little intuition on what a likely outcome is.
Same. Upthread I flagged it as the core dice mechanic I've most enjoyed.
If you go for non-linear rolls + non-linear results, it's hard for people to get a feel for what the expected outcome is likely to be, and that is an immersion-breaker as we'd expect our characters to have that knowledge.
I'd be careful categorizing things as immersive or not. Some people find it immersion-breaking to understand the math because, for them, it pulls them out of the story and into the mechanics.
Anyway, even if I'm an expert swordsman I couldn't tell you the odds of my attack landing against a new, unknown adversary, except in the most general sense. So at first glance I disagree with that premise.

