Well, if you're saying first level fighters are fine while first level wizards are completely hosed, that's an exaggeration, I think. The simple truth is that the difference between classes is never as small as at first level, so if there's one level where it doesn't matter much which class you are, first level would be it.Wizards and sorcerers getting into melee is straight up suicide. They will be trailing the martial character by 3 points of AC, which means a 15% better chance to get hit, and a 15% better chance yo be critted. Since monsters can attack 3 times, the odds are against you.
I did the calculation for my first level wizard, he had something like a 40% chance of dying if he started the round next to a 1st level enemy.
This does not mean I am disputing any of your findings. Of course, being a fighter still helps.
But if your post was meant as a reply to me saying...
...I stand by what I said.That said, at really low levels the difference between an armored fighter and a frail wizard isn't really that noteworthy. I'd say it is unwise for every 1st level character to be in melee