Merric's view: Thoughts on the Digital Initiative.

[Jdvn1]

Just a note on your figures: If they're true, the actual loss to Paizo is 34% of their current sales. That's significant. A drop from 50% of the market to 33% of the market is a 34% drop on actual sales. That sort of revenue loss - which actually makes more than 34%, when you consider overhead - is something I don't think they could easily recover from.

The numbers are based on the economic theory of monopolies. I didn't take the time to figure out what the loss of revenue would be, but it is more than likely is true that a 34% loss of sales combined with the corresponding drop in price would probably kill them.

Of course, what really complicates this is that we're talking about two overlapping populations. We have X people who would only subscribe to an online magazine, Y people who would only subscribe to a paper magazine, and some people Z that would do either. If Z is close to or greater than Y, and X is much greater than Y, then the DI makes a lot more sense from Wizards' point of view.

Both firms' models would assume essentially the same populations--all D&D gamers. Demand curves are based on any would-be buyers, if the price were low enough. If it were free, would you subscribe? If so, you're included in the demand curve. This is how the graph works:
[sblock]
Take a graph. The vertical axis represents price, and the horizontal quantity.
On said graph, draw a downward sloping line. That's the demand curve.
Now, draw a straight horizontal line (assume it's towards the bottom of the graph). That's the cost curve (this is an abstraction, but not a bad one).

For a monopoly: Look at the point where the cost curve intersects the demand curve, and look at the point where the cost curve intersects the vertical axis. In the middle of these points (or, as close to the middle as you can make it), draw a vertical line (divide the line in two equal parts). Look at where the vertical line and the demand curve intersect. Label this "Monopoly." The x-coordinate represents How the production level of a monopoly. The y-coordinate represents the corresponding price.

For a duopoly: Instead of dividing the cost line in two, divide it in three--two evenly spaced lines--and focus on the rightmost line. Label the intersection point between the rightmost line and the demand curve, "Two firms."

The farther to the right the point is, the more people are buying the product. Also, the lower the price gets. Everything to the right of the point is "deadweight loss"--loss due to the market's inefficiency. In a "perfect competition" the point never falls below the cost curve, because then everyone would be losing money.

The population is, "Anyone who would ever buy said product, if it were free" because the demand curve goes past the cost curve, all the way down to price = 0. I can't imagine that if the price were 0, that the populations between DI and Dragon/Dungeon would be immensely different.

The obvious problem is that this graph assumes (it's a better assumption in most other industries) that each firm has roughly the same costs to produce. Between DI and Dragon/Dungeon, this definitely isn't true, and it probably wouldn't be a bad assumption to say that DI can provide a lower price than Paizo can handle. Paizo, knowing this before DI came out, is forced to exit the market.

However, this also leads me to say that DI should cost less than the magazines. (Whether or not it's true remains to be seen, as the "new" monopoly still has to "feel" out the market before it knows exactly where to maximize profit.[/sblock]

Another note to all: if the price of the DI is less than that of the magazines, it's a much better deal for anyone not in the US as we don't have to pay shipping costs!

It cost me about US$75 to get a year's subscription to Dragon, and I had to contend with really, really lousy shipping. I'd get the magazines two to three months after everyone else had them.

My guess is that you'll be a very happy customer, then!

 

[Jdvn1]

Where is all this magical software coming from? I hear a lot of talk about the possibility of character generators, map editors, campaign planners, etc, that Wizards will offer via their DI, that these are what will differentiate it from just being Dragon and Dungeon on the web.

But Wizards have shown ZERO ability (or even interest) in the past to produce quality products for these purposes.

In a Wizards survey late last year, they mentioned the possibility of this sort of thing. I imagine they've been working on it (the already have some online tools).

 

[WizarDru]

But Wizards have shown ZERO ability (or even interest) in the past to produce quality products for these purposes.

Zero interest up until this point, yes. That's not the same thing as "Incapable of doing it".

What Wizards HAS done is produce some fine flash demo applications on their website for some of their products, consistently good web design and routinely updated content for several years now. I believe them more than capable of doing it. Take, for example, the D&D demo or Dreamblade demo. If they can execute stuff like that in a format that isn't limited, they'd have my money right there.

Worse comes to worst, they could license the code from folks like THIS and then put a fresh face on it using higher quality HTML, XML or Flash content.

I expect this will be limited to WotC staff and perhaps a few favored freelancers (and at least one person I mentioned is a WotC freelancer).

Considering how many of Dungeon and Dragon's contributors WERE WotC employees, that shouldn't come as much of a surprise. Review the last year's worth of issues and then check out the contributors to current articles on WotC's D&D site, and you'll see a LOT of duplicate names. I expect they've been stockpiling content for a while, which may be why they haven't been soliciting material.

It would be a great disappointment, however, if they decided that they aren't interested in new contributors, though.

 

[Glyfair]

Considering how many of Dungeon and Dragon's contributors WERE WotC employees, that shouldn't come as much of a surprise. Review the last year's worth of issues and then check out the contributors to current articles on WotC's D&D site, and you'll see a LOT of duplicate names. I expect they've been stockpiling content for a while, which may be why they haven't been soliciting material.

Maybe I wasn't clear. One of the people who stated that they don't have an avenue to publish former Dragon/Dungeon material is a WotC Freelancer.

Specifically, Nicolas Logue (Voyage of the Golden Dragon. Eyes of the Lich Queen, Dragons of Eberron) has been discussing the sequel to his great Dungeon adventure "Chimes at Midnight" that's appearing in the last issue of the magazine. He's stated that the 3rd in the series doesn't look like it will be published.

Also, Rich Burlew is looking for ways to get the comics he created for Dragon that won't see print there out. So we certainly can expect this Digital Initiative not to have any comic strip content.

 

[Jer]

Specifically, Nicolas Logue (Voyage of the Golden Dragon. Eyes of the Lich Queen, Dragons of Eberron) has been discussing the sequel to his great Dungeon adventure "Chimes at Midnight" that's appearing in the last issue of the magazine. He's stated that the 3rd in the series doesn't look like it will be published.

Also, Rich Burlew is looking for ways to get the comics he created for Dragon that won't see print there out. So we certainly can expect this Digital Initiative not to have any comic strip content.

I don't think either of these are necessarily true, though. Wizards is being really quiet about what will/won't be in the DI, who will be creating content, what the content might be, etc. They haven't made deals for comic content with Rich Burlew, but that doesn't mean that they aren't going to have comic content on their site -- it just means that they want different content than what Dragon and Dungeon were producing (and probably under different terms - terms that give Wizards more control and revenue from the publication of the strips in compilations. I wouldn't be surprised to see Dragonlance or Realms comics show up as webcomics on a DI site, so that Wizards are promoting their own characters and material instead of promoting Rich's -- again, not the move I would make, but I'm not a multi-billion dollar company looking for ways to shill my Intellectual Property).

Likewise, they clearly haven't shared any information about the DI with folks outside the company yet - even freelancers. That doesn't mean that they won't be soliciting contributions from freelancers in the future, that just means that they aren't soliciting them right now. I wouldn't be surprised if they weren't stockpiling content to have a full site with lots of updates available at rollout, and soliciting submissions at that point to keep building the pile. Once they have revealed the format and the type of content they want to get, it will be easier to ask freelancers to contribute pitches for similar stuff. Also, remember what Wizard's lead-time is like on books -- they seem to have these things in the can a year or so before we even see them in the catalog, let alone before they hit the shelves.

I mean, these could be indications that they're going to cut off outsiders from submissions altogether -- a boneheaded move on their part because the submission process is where they find new writers, but maybe they think they've found a better model. But right now all I see is a company with a "new product" coming out that isn't ready to advertise it yet -- no different from any of the books that Wizards refuses to talk about until they hit the catalog, or sometimes even before they hit the shelves.

 

[MoogleEmpMog]

I'm skeptical about this. I've seen many comments from various regular contributors to Dragon and Dungeon who have stated they don't know how they will be able to publish certain things with the magazines ending. They haven't been contacted by WotC, and the creators would be the first people contacted about such a project.\

If the creators were the first contacted, or were regularly contacted at all, it would certainly be a change from PAIZO's current policy...

It's already been stated that WotC inherited Paizo's submissions. Considering what a backlog those were (a short query, for example, MIGHT have seen a response in three to six months), WotC is probably sitting on months if not years worth of contributions in varying stages of development, with a similar proportion of great-good-unpublishable to what Paizo had.

Also, I expect the initial wave of Digital Initiative content will be heavy on 'big name' contributors to try to encourage early subscription.

 

[WizarDru]

Maybe I wasn't clear. One of the people who stated that they don't have an avenue to publish former Dragon/Dungeon material is a WotC Freelancer.

What I wonder is how many contributors WotC will actually need for content. Unless they're foolish, they'll have hoarded quite a bit of it. It wouldn't surprise me that many freelancers haven't been consulted or notified. This took a lot of folks (including some big names who have been published in those pages in recent months) entirely by surprise. What that means for future work, I don't know if we can say, yet. An Eberron-specific module is no longer really viable outside of WotC, since Paizo no longer has the right to publish non-OGL material when the magazines end.

I would be very surprised if WotC didn't start accepting submissions from proven authors and freelancers eventually. But for them to do that, they probably need to figure out what their subscription costs are going to be, so they know what they can reasonably charge and vice-versa. You would think they'd already have figured that out, but who knows?

Also, Rich Burlew is looking for ways to get the comics he created for Dragon that won't see print there out. So we certainly can expect this Digital Initiative not to have any comic strip content.

Well, I can't say as I see that as a problem. Considering that Dork Tower , Nodwick , Order of the Stick and Zogonia are all available on the web AND appear in print form elsewhere (Paizo collections, stand-alone comics, etc.) I can easily see why WotC wouldn't bother. There's not much point in paying for exclusive Full Frontal Nerdity strips when they're available for free. Someone could just rip them for free in a minute if they were available for pay, defeating the purpose. I mean, how many times has Dork Tower moved about, from Pyramid to Gamespy to Dragon and now to Livejournal, really?

 

[Khairn]

Just a note: The DI covers more than just D&D; it also ties into a lot of other Wizards properties, such as Magic.

Cheers!

I guessed I missed that particular bit of news.

So the DI will encompass more than just D&D? My subscription would go to support other games such as Magic, Dreamblade etc as well?

This is firm?

(As firm as anything is given that we have so little information that is.)

 

[amethal]

I'm actually starting to get quite excited about the digital initiative.

Pathfinder looks like an excellent alternative to Dungeon.

Looks like we could be getting annual "Dragon Compendiums", so I can buy the best bits in print each year for a lot less than 12 magazines were costing me (at overseas rates).

It looks like I'll be able to subscribe for a month each year - probably December, as its the quietest time at work - and rip out anything else that interests me.

WotC are finally going to be developing some useful software, which all those people who "get their information from the internet" will be happily testing for them (and me). If and when they ever get it right, I can look at becoming a full time subscriber.

 

[Arashi Ravenblade]

I dont really care if the DI succeeds or not or if it will provide me with something I couldnt normally get. See I quite getting Dragon because the content got more useless to me over the 3 years I had it. And Dungeon only ever got my money for one or two articels that werent adventures anyway.
So The reason I wont get the DI isnt because I loved Dragon and Dungeon so much, it is because I dont know what Im getting and I dont pay for intangible products. Not online content, not PDF's, nothing on the web will I pay for, I wont even pay for the internet (my parents get it cause my sister and brother need it for school stuff).
However, if in the future WOTC produces a book with complied stuff or offers a disk I can buy, that allows me to put the content on my laptop or PC i'll get it. Otherwise the Di doesnt get my money.