My (Very) Mini Rant

[Olaf the Stout]

I know what you mean Cameron. Some people just quote the numbers, without know exactly what they mean. They might know if it is good or bad but have no idead how good or bad. Heck, I know some people that work with the numbers that are good at calculating the numbers but really bad at interpreting what they actually mean.

On the other side of things, you can mess with people pretty easily by telling them stats that you know are patently false. Kind of like what Barney does in "How I Met Your Mother". I am surprised at how trusting (read: gullible) some people are.

Olaf the Stout

 

[Thornir Alekeg]

Context and interpretation are so important, something the news likes to ignore when reporting things like new medical findings. When something doubles your risk for some condition, it really doesn't mean very much until you know what the actual risk is first. If the chance of developing that condition is 1 in 10, doubling it to 1 in 5 is a lot, but if the chance is 1 in 100,000, doubling it to 1 in 50,000 still means it is very unlikely that you will develop the condition.

My favorite fun with statistics is when someone says to me something like "one-third of all marriages end in divorce." I like to counter with, "but even worse is that two-thirds of all marriages end with the death of a spouse. We need to get rid of marriage so spouses stop dying."

 

[OakwoodDM]

I know what you mean. I actually managed to pull the old "Did you know, the word gullible isn't even in the dictionary?" joke on someone once...

and she should really have known by then never to trust a word I say.

As to the stats thing, I have in the past considered myself to be somewhat of a statistician (I have been away from the topic far too long to consider it a strength any more). I have, however, also seen far too many bad uses of stats, graphs and other general numbers by the British tabloid press to put much faith in stats any more.

 

[Huw]

Don't know if this is a real statistic or if someone made it up to make a point about misinterpretation of statistics:

"80% of serial killers eat chocolate. Therefore, if you eat chocolate, you are likely to be a serial killer."

Doesn't specify light or dark though. I eat dark

 

[Olaf the Stout]

Cause and effect seem to be one of the biggest things many people seem to get wrong with stats. I like deliberately misinterpreting cause and effect sometimes for humorous results.

For example, in Australia, shark attacks are more common in the Summer. Is it because there are more people in the water in Summer? Is it because the sharks have migrated back to Australian waters as they warm up in the Summer sun? Of course not, the real reason is ice cream sales. Ice cream sales go up and then the number of shark attacks follows. It is obvious that in order to stop shark attacks we should ban ice cream!

You could also argue that the shark attacks are also causing global warming. Every time you see more shark attacks the weather is warmer. Obviously those sharks are making the globe hotter with all their ravenous frenzys!

Olaf the Stout

 

[Cameron]

Cause and effect seem to be one of the biggest things many people seem to get wrong with stats. I like deliberately misinterpreting cause and effect sometimes for humorous results.

For example, in Australia, shark attacks are more common in the Summer. Is it because there are more people in the water in Summer? Is it because the sharks have migrated back to Australian waters as they warm up in the Summer sun? Of course not, the real reason is ice cream sales. Ice cream sales go up and then the number of shark attacks follows. It is obvious that in order to stop shark attacks we should ban ice cream!

You could also argue that the shark attacks are also causing global warming. Every time you see more shark attacks the weather is warmer. Obviously those sharks are making the globe hotter with all their ravenous frenzys!

Olaf the Stout

Dude, don't even get me started on that. I have a long standing thing against airplane environmentalists, the state of fear terrorists, and religious nutjobs. When I was in university, I made it my mission to counter them at every turn in front of the entire lecture hall. They didn't like it one bit, but at least they had the good sense not to sling death threats until they were safely ensconced behind a computer screen

 

[hexgrid]

You could also argue that the shark attacks are also causing global warming. Every time you see more shark attacks the weather is warmer. Obviously those sharks are making the globe hotter with all their ravenous frenzys!

It might seem that way, but global warming is actually caused by a decrease in the global pirate population.

 

[Halivar]

It might seem that way, but global warming is actually caused by a decrease in the global pirate population.

Ergo, ninjas cause global warming.

 

[OakwoodDM]

Ergo, ninjas cause global warming.

Or maybe it's law and order. With greater skills and equipment available to law enforcers, piracy became easier to thwart, and thus, the number of pirates was reduced. So it seems that the best way to combat global warming is to enforce strict anarchy worldwide.

Either that or start a pirate recruitment drive, and maybe even pirate universities...

 

[Arashi Ravenblade]

What if you understand statistics but still think that they are mostly bogus?