New Crit Rule

[ichabod]

Re: Re: here I come again with my laziness

The second option (take -5 for a +1 to the threat range) seems pretty sound, however, and works with the original rules, particularly if taken as a feat (Sacrifice Ploy, perhaps?).

Sacrifice is right. Unless you are facing DR, this is never worth it. Think about it: you are giving up five chances to do X damage, to have one chance to do X or 2X more damage. Your expected damage is going to drop like a rock. Note that with a -2 and a x3 weapon, you are not changing your expected damage, you are just changing the variance. Then it's no loss in typical combat, and a bonus against DR.

What about giving up an itterative attack to increase threat range by one? Your last attack may have such a low chance of hitting that it's worth the boost to your other attacks. Or take a drop in AC or an AoO to add to threat range (Reckless Attack).

 

[Stalker0]

The main problem with this idea, is that if you just take a quick flip through the MM, the creatures in there are usually much more focused on attacks then AC. Meaning at high levels, you'll have crits all over the place.

However, maybe that's what you want, it makes combat much deadlier, and tones town the "I'm a high level god" ideas.

 

[seasong]

Re: Re: Re: here I come again with my laziness

Sacrifice is right. Unless you are facing DR, this is never worth it. Think about it: you are giving up five chances to do X damage, to have one chance to do X or 2X more damage.

I'm not entirely sure I understood you (or vice versa). It's -5 to your BAB, not five fewer attacks.

With that said, I've started doing some statistical analysis, and that ends up being a bit harsh. A -4 per is more friendly...

[color=skyblue]Example:
 Fighter Joe, to hit +18, half spear (d8, 20/x3)
 Monster Frank, AC 20

            Normal
            Attack      -4      -8
% to hit    90%         70%     50%
% to crit   4.5%        7%      7.5%[/color]

You wouldn't want to take more than a -4 most of the time, unless you were so much higher that the -4 didn't impact you.

 

[Khorod]

Also, while the amount of damage output might be the same over the course of several rounds of combat, the point of this feat would be for someone who makes a desperate, unguarded move with a single attack as a last ditch effort.

 

[ichabod]

Re: Re: Re: Re: here I come again with my laziness

I'm not entirely sure I understood you (or vice versa). It's -5 to your BAB, not five fewer attacks.

Right. Let's take a fighter who has a 50% chance to hit, and does 10 damage on average (just b/c those are easy numbers to deal with). Also, assume a 20/x3 weapon. On 11-19 he does 10 damage on average, and on 20 he does 20 damage on average (0.5*10+0.5*30, to take into account not confirming the critical). So that's (9*10+20)/20=5.5 average damage for an attack.

Now he takes the -5 to increase his threat range to 19-20. Now on 16-18 he does 10 points on average, and on 19-20 he does 20 points. Now it's (3*10+2*20)/20=3.5 average damage for the attack. -2 expected damage for using the feat. That's what I mean by giving up five chances to do X=10 damage (the 11-15 he no longer hits on) to get one chance (on a 19) to do 2X more (20 more, but only if he confirms the critical).

If we go with -4, he does 4 points of damage on average. At -2 it's 5 points on average (my earlier statement didn't take into account confirming the critical). Now if he's facing DR 5/- with the -5 rule he goes from 3 to 2.25. Still worse with the feat, but not as bad. Now, if you're assuming the +1 threat goes in before doubling from keen/improved critical (IDHTBIFOM to check if that would be standard under the rules), it might be useful there. However, that wouldn't help lower level fighters, and I'm not sure keen/improved critical needs to be improved.

Let's look at taking -2 to AC to improve threat by 1. The above fighter goes from 5.5 expected damage to 6 expected damage. If he's facing his clone, his opponent goes from 5.5 expected damage to 6.7 expected damage. Still not a fair trade. But if his opponent is only doing 9 damage on an average hit, his overall expected damage for the attack only goes from 4.95 to 5.94. Now this is still a losing proposition unless you are doing a good bit more average damage than your opponent. It would also be helpful against people with less hit points, but not so much as to be worth a feat, methinks.

 

[seasong]

Avg Dmg = good way to look at this, thanks!

So, after looking it over with a spreadsheet, I still think it makes a good feat. However, I will point out: it works like power attack, only useful when your attack bonus exceeds your opponent's AC by a certain amount. There's nothing wrong with that, but low-level fighters will not find it attractive.

(power blow, below a certain threshold BAB, also lowers average damage)

So, here's the write up as a feat:

Strong Gambit (General, Fighter)
You increase your likelihood of a particularly deadly shot, at the expense of your chances of hitting a normal shot.
Prereq: ?, BAB 12+.
Benefit: You may reduce your chance to hit by -4, and increase your threat range by +1, with any weapon. For ranged weapons, you must be within 30 feet of the target. You may take multiples of -4 to hit for increased threat range.
Normal: Your threat range is always the same.

 

[incognito]

I think it's an interesting feat - statistical analysis aside. Fun factor is high.

I don't think it needs a Pre-req of more than +4 BAB, and maybe Str 13. AS you said, it's not good for low level fighter's - but if they want to take it...why not?

 

[seasong]

incognito: Good point on the BAB. For the STR, I was trying to decide whether STR or DEX was more appropriate, or if I should just make it a part of a feat chain with Cleave or Expertise (which would be INT instead).

Hm... maybe instead of any BAB, require STR 13 and Expertise?

 

[incognito]

Expertise requires 13 INT - I'd pick one or the other.

If you leve it out of a feat chain, you can sart your own feat chain.

One with BAB +4, and some attribute (STR, DEX, or INT) 13+

One with BAB +8, and Strong Gambit as a prereq.

Final one with BAB +12, the other two as a prereq.