No Prebuff - Round 1 - Damage Rankings

[Esker]

Trying to work out the math for a Level 2 Diviner with Magic Initiate (Bard) using Portent on Dissonant Whispers and then doing an AoO with a two-handed quarterstaff, also potentially with portent... But I'm too sleepy right now to sort out the dependencies between the two sources of damage due to potentially using up a portent die on the first one.

 

[Esker]

Okay, here goes. This is even more complicated than I was realizing since you need low values for inducing a failed save (11 or lower) and high values to generate a hit (10 or higher), but these ranges overlap.

So the relevant bins are: 1-9, 10-11, 12-19, 20

Case 1: Two 1-9s: 0.45 * 0.45
Case 2: One 1-9, one 10-19: 2 * 0.45 * 0.50
Case 3: One 1-9, one 20: 2 * 0.45 * 0.05
Case 4: Two 10-11s: 0.10 * 0.10
Case 5: One 10-11, one 12-19: 2 * 0.10 * 0.40
Case 6: One 10-11, one 20: 2 * 0.10 * 0.05
Case 7: Two 12-19s: 0.40 * 0.40
Case 8: One 12-19, one 20: 2 * 0.40 * 0.05
Case 9: Two 20s: 0.05 * 0.05

Case 1: Dissonant Whispers for 3d6, regular attack roll for staff: 10.5 + 0.55 * 7.5 = 14.625
Case 2,4,5: Dissonant Whispers for 3d6, autohit on staff: 10.5 + 7.5 = 18
Case 3,6: Autocrit on Chromatic Orb (better than DW + staff crit): 27
Case 7: Autohit Chromatic Orb (better than letting them roll for DW): 13.5
Case 8,9: Autocrit Chromatic Orb: 27

Expected Damage: (0.45*0.45) * (14.625) + (2*0.45*0.50 + 0.10*0.10 + 2*0.10*0.40) * 18 + (2*0.45*0.05+2*0.10*0.05+0.05*0.05) * 27 + (0.40*0.40)*13.5 = 16.4

 

[FrogReaver]

Level 6 Variant Human (GWM) War Cleric

= 36.4

.85*21+.85*21+.05*14

 

[FrogReaver]

Level 6 Samurai Variant Human (GWM) 20 Str + Action Surge

=62.5

.64*(8.33+5+10)*4 + .0975*7*4

 

[FrogReaver]

Level 6 Divination Wizard + Fireball

27.1

=.936*28+.064*14

 

[Esker]

Fighter 2 / War Cleric 4 (18 WIS): 2x Inflict Wounds

1.0 * 22 + (0.6+0.6*0.4) * 22 + 2*0.05*22 = 42.68

 

[Esker]

Human Barbarian 5 / Fighter 1 (PAM+GWM+GWF+Reckless Attack):

(2 * (6.3 + 13) + (3+ 13)) * (1 - (1 - 0.55)^2) + (2*6.3+3)*(1 - (1 - 0.05)^2) = 45.1 (repeatable every round)

 

[FrogReaver]

Human Barbarian 5 / Fighter 1 (PAM+GWM+GWF+Reckless Attack):

(2 * (6.3 + 13) + (3+ 13)) * (1 - (1 - 0.55)^2) + (2*6.3+3)*(1 - (1 - 0.05)^2) = 45.1 (repeatable every round)

Your chance to hit is too high. Looks like you didn't subtract the -5 attack from GWM. Base hit chance should be 30%. Reckless should be 1-(1-.3)^2

 

[Esker]

Your chance to hit is too high. Looks like you didn't subtract the -5 attack from GWM. Base hit chance should be 30%. Reckless should be 1-(1-.3)^2

Yeah, of course. That's what happens when I try to quickly dash off a post on the way out the door.

Should be a total of 29.4

 

[FrogReaver]

Level 6 Variant Human College of Swords Bard + PAM + 18 Str

=21.4

=(9.5+9.5+8.5)*.6+[1-(1-.6)^3]*4.5 + .05*14 = 21.4