Not Reading Ryan Dancy

[mythusmage]

His blog that is. The front page loads fine, but this page shows nothing besides the background. The XHTML is there, it shows up when you go to "view source". But it doesn't display in the browser. I suspect it's the file name.

The page in question has Ryan's predictions for hobby gaming in 2007. I have the page downloaded and can open it in a text editor. But commenting at his place on what he said is a no go. That said, I thought I'd spread the word and get folks to go there and add their take.

And Ryan, if you ever read this I have a word for you, WordPress. Get yourself a site of your own (I use Totalchoice Hosting myself). Most low cost hosts use a control panel such as cPanel, which comes with a utility that will install blogging software for you. One such engine is Wordpress, which works well and doesn't inflict excessively long file names on you.

My thoughts on what Ryan had to say coming up as soon as I compose them.

 

[jaerdaph]

How old is your machine? I work at a nonprofit and naturally we have a few computers that are about seven years old that have no problem opening that page.

This really isn't meant to be judgmental in any way, but there does come a point in time where support for and compatibility with older computers and software just isn't feasible anymore. I hate to say it, but if you are using an older machine, you're just going to get left behind more and more as time goes by. Again, I'm not trying to be judgmental, just stating a fact.

 

[Master of the Game]

Loads fine for me.

 

[kenobi65]

'Tis working just fine for me, as well.

 

[RainOfSteel]

There are some interesting tidbits of news in there, but regardless of the man's credentials, there are too many specific predictions to believe that they will all simply come true.

Here's my prediction: 53.2% of Ryan Dancey's predictions will not come true.

Oh, and 79.92% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

 

[Vigilance]

There are some interesting tidbits of news in there, but regardless of the man's credentials, there are too many specific predictions to believe that they will all simply come true.

Here's my prediction: 53.2% of Ryan Dancey's predictions will not come true.

Oh, and 79.92% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

But at least he's gutsy enough to MAKE specific predictions.

 

[Alzrius]

I'm having no trouble loading and reading the page, though it seems to have a non-panicky sense of doom & gloom that's something of a downer.

 

[Turjan]

His blog that is. The front page loads fine, but this page shows nothing besides the background. The XHTML is there, it shows up when you go to "view source". But it doesn't display in the browser. I suspect it's the file name.

I suspect it's your computer or your browser. The blog looks fine.

As to the blog, it just translates to "The sky is falling". It's basically an extrapolation of what happened in 2006.

 

[eyebeams]

He's already wrong about White Wolf. "Transitioning to a shell business," doesn't fit with planning the most ambitious year for new RPG releases in its history. I don't think the company has ever planned as many new games or major core supplements simultaneously, running from acquired licensed (BESM) to an entirely new in-house game (Scion). White Wolf scaling back its RPG operations would take at least two years, and it's my feeling that even as a branch/partner of CCP, the allure of tabletop RPGs as a testbed for intellectual property is just too economical to pass up.

Really, I think the plan is to do for RPGs and mass media what Marvel did for comics. Comics are an effective way for Marvel to maintain loyal, core fans while testung out new ideas, but the comics themselves only provide 2% of Marvel's income. Similarly, RPGs maintain a fanbase and are cheaper than throwing ideas by executives, focus groups and the general public until something sticks. Marvel has shown the value of robust IP, as opposed to flying blind into film, television and computer games without a clue as to whether anybody cares about a given project.

 

[Acid_crash]

I think that, although a lot of what he says has a certain kind of logic behind it, his estimation of White Wolf is probably going to be dead wrong. I think White Wolf will probably be the one company to exceed expectations this year, and they seem to be the one that is truly trying to expand their lineup this year.

I am not a market analyst or anything like that, and I could be way wrong, and it is just my opinion, but having been a gamer the last five years, and seeing what's being produced, this year won't be as doom and gloom as predicted.

My prediction is White Wolf will have a more stellar year, with BESM 3e, Scion and Monte Cooks World of Darkness all being successful (although BESM won't be a huge hit, depends). GW will have success with Warhammer 40K Roleplaying, all three of them will be hits. Most people will buy the new Star Wars rpg, if only to see what the changes will be and to see if it will be, indeed, a prelude to the future D&D 4e (we all know it will come out, it's just a matter of time)...if that leads to a future lineup of Star Wars books, only time will tell.

I don't know what else is coming out... more supplemental D&D stuff that will further lead to a faster increase in the desire of a new edition because most of it will probably be the same old stuff just rehashed in a new format (I am not saying that it won't be new, or innovative, but innovation isn't Hasbro's or WotC cup of tea...and what innovation they have created --- looking at Magic of Incarnum, Tome of Magic, and Psionics Handbook type stuff--- has not really been received all that well from the majority of D&D gamers). My FLGS won't even reorder those now unless someone asks them to for a special order.

There are other new rpgs coming out, but most of those only people like us who get on the web on a daily basis, and who do research and look for them, will discover them. Games like Wild Talents will be passed over, and other games in the same category and produced by equally small companies, won't be picked up by the majority of FLGS (if most are like mine, mine didn't even know that Wild Talents was being made, and they couldn't do an order for me so I had to do it myself). Same for Burning Empires, etc.

I don't know if anything I say has merit, these are just my opinions, and I hope that there is a booom in the future of roleplaying games that doesn't require a new edition of Dungeons and Dragons. Seems like whenever a new edition comes out, sells are way up, then slowly decline, and as they decline, the whole market declines, until a new edition comes out. It's unfortunate.