Not Reading Ryan Dancy

[mythusmage]

For those who asked...

Yes, she's old. Got her back in 1998. Still works well, but in order to upgrade to OSX I need to upgrade ram to at least 256 megs physical. I'd be better off trading up for a MacMini and flat panel display. And that requires fecal consolidation on my part. Email or PM me for details on providing (financial) encouragement.

On Ryan's screed...

Saved the page, opened it in AppleWorks, and read through it. How valid his prognostications are depends on how well he reads the industry, and from previous comments in this thread, he would appear to be 180 on a couple of subjects. There is one thing one needs to remember about predictions, they are rather dependent on a simple qualifier, "If this goes on." WizKids could decide to expand into mainstream retail, and maintain their hobby business as well. There is nothing that says you can't do both. Hell, Hasbro could decide to encourage expansion by Wizards, and start the ball rolling on 4e with a comprehensive, and transparent, general survey of potential customers.

Then there is the matter of outsiders entering the hobby game business. Mattel is new to this stuff, might they bring in new ways of looking at RPGs? New paradigms in design and play? What about Milton Bradley, another of Hasbro's game divisions? What if they're thinking is so superior to Wizards re RPGs D&D 4e ends up as a Milton Bradley game?

Don't scoff, Companies such as Milton Bradley and Parker Brothers have been publishing games for close to a century now. They know games; how to design them, how they are played, and how to write rules for them. Maybe only a Milton Bradley designer can drop balance for the counterproductive impediment it is in RPGs.

We may get truy new thinking, we may not, only time will tell.

 

[Gez]

Firefox 1.5.0.9 here. Page displays fine, despite NoScript, Adblock+, and other things that sometimes interfer with a site's display.

 

[delericho]

Then there is the matter of outsiders entering the hobby game business. Mattel is new to this stuff, might they bring in new ways of looking at RPGs? New paradigms in design and play? What about Milton Bradley, another of Hasbro's game divisions? What if they're thinking is so superior to Wizards re RPGs D&D 4e ends up as a Milton Bradley game?

That seems unlikely, though. From Hasbro's point of view, "thinking so superior" == "sells better", but it's highly unlikely any RPG could be devised that would sell better than D&D without the D&D name. I would wager you could repackage FATAL as D&D 4e and it would sell better than the next biggest RPG.

Now, I might be wrong about that. If someone could figure out a way to sell an RPG in mass-market numbers to kiddies and their parents, they might get somewhere. Even then, though, I wouldn't expect D&D to be redesigned in the same model - the name remains sufficiently kiddie-unfriendly to give pause... I think.

 

[Varianor Abroad]

I found it a very interesting read. I don't remember how much of his prior predictions turned out true, but I seem to remember he nailed a few trends. Anyone keeping track of the hit ratio?

 

[Glyfair]

As to the blog, it just translates to "The sky is falling". It's basically an extrapolation of what happened in 2006.

I think it better translates to "the sky is changing." It might be smaller and lower, but it will be different. There is a sense of doom, but it's more of a concern about changes than actual ending.

He's already wrong about White Wolf. "Transitioning to a shell business," doesn't fit with planning the most ambitious year for new RPG releases in its history.

It doesn't fit in with those being the current plans. It can fit in with them changing those plans by the end of the year (because of the response to those changes). He's predicting a change in those plans because of developments through the year. He might be right, he might be wrong, but I don't think he's "already wrong."

He's right with WizKids, who since the post announced they were going with only one distributor (Diamond/Alliance) to better serve the hobby industry. It's very controversial whether this is the right move and does what they hope it will, but it does meet his prediction they would try to keep the hobby stores as their primary interest.

 

[Mark CMG]

I got the feeling from his previous posts around here that he had some personal stake in a new form of CRPG that more closely simulated a tabletop experience but divorced gaming from the requirement of a facilitator/DM. I wouldn't be surprised if what he is predicting coincidentally comes to fruition about the same time some company he is in bed with releases a product to the market. Frankly, his call for transparency with GAMA came true, too, though not in the same sense as some believed he meant.

 

[Turjan]

I think it better translates to "the sky is changing." It might be smaller and lower, but it will be different. There is a sense of doom, but it's more of a concern about changes than actual ending.

Well, I didn't say "the sky is crashing to the ground". He's extrapolating from the happenings of the last two to three years, with vanishing (or migrating) companies and only miniature-oriented games with comparably simple rules doing well.

 

[Mouseferatu]

Thing is, while Ryan has more than once made comments worth paying attention to, he's also more than once been proved completely wrong, and he's been crying doom of some form or another for years now.

Personally, I take his thoughts for exactly what they are: Guesses. They may be guesses by a man who knows more about the industry than most, which lends them some validity, but at the end of the day, they're still just guesses.

 

[Psion]

There are some interesting tidbits of news in there, but regardless of the man's credentials, there are too many specific predictions to believe that they will all simply come true.

I'd call them "chancy but plausible."

 

[DaveMage]

I'd call them "chancy but plausible."

Chancy Dancey?